Expert Hodarenok told how the APU will attack without F-16 fighters This week, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said at a hearing in the US Congress that Ukraine does not need F-16 aircraft at the moment, but will definitely receive them later.
The details of the extermination story were dealt with by the military observer of the newspaper.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
In the future, Ukraine, according to the head of the Pentagon, should definitely receive F-16 fighters or other IV generation aircraft, but now partners should focus on transferring air defense systems, missiles and armored vehicles to Kiev. The US military is afraid that the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, having an effective air defense system, will be able to inflict unacceptable damage to fighters after the transfer of the F-16 to Ukraine.
And here it's not so much about possible losses of aviation equipment, as in possible reputational costs. After all, the United States believes (and this is no exaggeration) that American weapons are the best in the world, and the transfer of them to the Armed Forces is capable of at least turning the tide of the armed struggle. And against the background of significant losses of the F-16, the image of one of the best-selling aircraft in the world, a combat vehicle that set the standard for a light fighter in the world, may fade greatly.
In order for the General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon to successfully operate in the disputed Ukrainian airspace, it is necessary, in addition to the fighters themselves, to transfer electronic warfare aircraft to the Ukrainian side (at the rate of one vehicle per 1-2 squadrons), to form groups of fighters to suppress air defense equipped with anti-radar missiles and planning aerial bombs (to strike at launch sites positions of anti-aircraft missile divisions without entering the affected areas of the SAM), to give the Ukrainian Air Forces radio and radio reconnaissance aircraft.
Only if these conditions are met, the F-16 Fighting Falcon will prove itself in Ukraine from the proper side. But if the transfer of fighters alone to the APU is a very, very long story (18-24 months), then the delivery of the above-mentioned set of forces and means may be delayed for an indefinite period at all.
Image source: Alina Jus/"Newspaper.Ru"
And time is catastrophically running out for both the military and political leadership of Ukraine. So the offensive operation in the spring campaign of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have to be carried out solely on the weapons and military equipment that have already been obtained from the West.
According to the canons of military art, an offensive operation begins with an air campaign or a series of massive missile and air strikes. However, the APU today has no opportunities to implement such events. The Air Forces of Ukraine largely retained their combat capability during the special operation, but they are still small in number.
Presumably, the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine sees the way out in a massive attack on the first day of the operation, which should lead to the disorganization of the enemy's command and control system, the defeat of aviation and anti-aircraft groups, the defeat of ground groups, the disruption of the logistics system and the destruction of operational equipment elements in the theater of operations. First of all, command posts, communication centers and ammunition depots will be hit.
There is every reason to believe that in order to implement such plans, the APU has stocked up with a large number of JDAM-ER (Extended Range - extended range) planning bombs, small-diameter ground-launched bombs (GLSDB) and ammunition for M142 HIMARS and M270 MRLS combat vehicles. It is possible that for strikes on the objects of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation stationed in the deep rear, the UK supplied the APU with air-launched cruise missiles of the Storm Shadow/SCALP type. In addition, long-range Ukrainian artillery, which received a lot of 155-mm guided projectiles M982 Excalibur, will be connected to the defeat of important objects on the front line.
After a massive strike with high-precision weapons, armored and mechanized units and formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, primarily equipped with Western armored combat vehicles, which will be used at the edge of the strike, will enter into action.
The South Ukrainian steppes provide great opportunities for the rapid advance of tanks and armored vehicles of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. For sure, the Ukrainian army will form raiding and bypassing detachments, which will be tasked with bypassing the enemy's resistance nodes, rapidly advancing to the coast of the Sea of Azov, dissecting the defending troops of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and then destroying them in parts. The ultimate goals of the Ukrainian "counteroffensive" have been called repeatedly - Melitopol with access to Berdyansk, Mariupol and, possibly, Lugansk.
The terrain in the south of Ukraine is not the most suitable for the organization of defense by Russian troops - flat as a table, devoid of any protective and masking properties. The enemy will try to take advantage of these circumstances.
But, apparently, all of the above is taken into account by the Russian command, and an appropriate response is being prepared for all actions of the Ukrainian side.
Mikhail Khodarenok
