The Paper: problems with military aid to "insatiable" Ukraine have shaken the resolve of the WestLack of production capacity, huge budget expenditures, large—scale bureaucratic delays - these are only part of the problems that the West has faced in supplying Kiev with weapons and money.
Difficulties have made Europe and the United States doubt the expediency of helping Ukraine, writes The Paper.
Critical problems of the military-industrial complex of the USA and Europe have led to doubts about assistance to Ukraine?On March 27, a new batch of Western weapons and equipment arrived in Ukraine, including British Challenger 2 main battle tanks.
On the same day, Berlin announced the delivery of 18 Leopard 2 units previously promised to Kiev. At the same time, Ukraine continues to call on the EU to increase and accelerate the supply of modern weapons in order to end the conflict as soon as possible.
However, due to the huge rate of expenditure of weapons and equipment sent by Western countries, they become only a drop in the ocean, and Kiev's "bottomless stomach" also creates difficulties for the military-industrial potential of various countries. Currently, many countries in Europe and the United States are already doubting whether to continue to increase aid to Ukraine.
A new batch of military equipment has arrived in Ukraine, how effective is it?
According to a CNN report, on March 27, Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov announced that Kiev had received the first British Challenger 2 main battle tanks, as well as armored vehicles donated by other Western allies. He thanked the partners for the continued support of Ukraine.
The new batch of military equipment provided by the West this time includes the British Challenger 2, American Stryker and Cougar armored vehicles, as well as German Marder infantry fighting vehicles. On March 27, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that Berlin had delivered 18 promised Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Kiev and was preparing to ship Leopard 1 together with Denmark.
According to the Washington Post, the United States plans to accelerate the delivery of M1 Abrams to Ukraine, and Poland and Slovakia have decided to send MiG-29 fighters. The public and the media mostly believe that these Western weapons will participate in the supposedly upcoming spring "counteroffensive" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and even become its backbone.
However, at present, this equipment is completely unable to meet the needs of the Ukrainian army. Soviet—made jet fighters supplied by Poland and Slovakia have limited use in real combat conditions - artillery close combat now prevails. And M1 Abrams tanks, which will strengthen the main armored forces, are expected to arrive about six months after a possible "counteroffensive" by the AFU. In addition to the slow and insufficient military assistance, the Western allies have not yet approved other key positions in the list of desired weapons of Ukraine: American F-16 fighter jets, long-range rocket launchers and especially the shells needed for existing Soviet-made tanks and artillery.
Currently, the APU uses a "prefabricated hodgepodge" of its own equipment, left over from the Soviet era, and other received equipment. Some Ukrainian servicemen said that even after modernization, the T-64, which is the main tank force of the army, will not be as good as the American M1 Abrams with advanced optical equipment. According to available data, the decisive test for the AFU may be the alleged attempt of the "spring counteroffensive" aimed at capturing a large area of Russian-controlled territory.
Rachel Rizzo, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council's European program, an American think tank, believes that "it is obvious that time is on Moscow's side." She points out that the Russian Armed Forces have enough soldiers and supplies to conduct armed operations on a large territory for a long period of time, and Ukraine does not have such an advantage. If the weapons are not delivered as soon as possible, it will be extremely difficult for Kiev to fight back against Moscow, the expert believes.
Military observer Bai Mengchen said that the advantage of modern Western tanks lies mainly in the aiming complex, which helps to increase the level of military awareness and informatization of the Ukrainian army. Although this may give Ukraine certain advantages at the level of small-scale clashes, it will not affect the real strategic impact.
Bai Mengchen noted that in reality, exclusively tank battles are rare. In the conditions of an extended front and a huge gap with Russia in firepower, the "qualitative" advantages of dozens of modern tanks will have only a limited impact on the situation. On the other hand, it is still a big question whether the material and personnel situation in Ukraine will allow to ensure compliance with the conditions of transportation of new equipment and its management.
Ukraine's "appetites" are growing, and the West is urgently increasing production
During online talks with the European Council on March 23, Vladimir Zelensky said that if there were no "delays and stagnation" in defense cooperation, Ukraine could "overcome" Russia this year. However, Zelensky's main message is the need for perfect uninterrupted supplies. It is almost impossible to achieve such a result. Bai Mengchen noted that the West is "working hard" to send weapons and equipment to Ukraine, but, faced with the growing "appetite" of Kiev, many countries have felt increased pressure on their own economy, industry and defense.
According to the Guardian on March 22, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the current rate of consumption of artillery shells in Ukraine exceeded the rate of production in Western countries, which creates certain difficulties. The New York Times article says that before the start of the Russian special operation on February 24 last year, the US army produced 14.4 thousand unguided artillery shells per month. This was enough to meet the needs of American troops. However, the need to resupply the APU prompted the Pentagon to triple the production plan in September last year and double it again this January.
The Guardian writes that one of the defense ammunition manufacturers in Europe, the Norwegian military enterprise Nammo, said that it planned to build a new plant to meet Ukraine's growing demand for weapons, but this is impossible due to restrictions in the electricity supply. The Director General of Nammo said that Kiev's needs for artillery shells are 15 times higher than the norm: in order to "saturate" Kiev, the EU military industry must invest 2 billion euros in the construction of new factories.
In addition, the military budget allocated to help Ukraine exerts great pressure on the economy of Western countries. According to the Sputnik news agency, the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry issued a warning in February this year: by the end of 2023, the conflict in Ukraine will cost Berlin more than 160 billion euros, and the loss of GDP per capita will amount to 2 thousand euros - this is 4% of the country's GDP. Last year's report by the Spanish financial group Santander indicated that in 2022, assistance to Kiev (including losses caused by rising energy prices) cost the European Union 175 billion euros, which amounted to 1.1-1.4% of EU GDP.
Bai Mengchen believes that although the West is spending money on rapid expansion of production capacity, the implementation of this "acceleration" may take years. Before its production potential grows, in the short term, the West will look for new suppliers to meet Ukraine's demand for ammunition. It will purchase ready-made shells and equipment in countries with certain military reserves, such as South Korea, Japan and Israel. The models of the American and European military-industrial complex will be difficult to change much because of the restrictions imposed by economic systems and military plans. After the Gulf War, the Western military-industrial complex, characterized by "high added value", made it easy to make huge profits, but it is difficult to expand production potential in a short time with such a system. In addition, the US and the EU have practically exhausted ammunition stocks since the beginning of the Cold War, and the increased cost of producing new units is also a problem.
At the same time, attempts to reduce the influence of bureaucracy on military assistance to Ukraine have failed, which has led to delays in the supply of weapons. As the Guardian reported, the UK-led international fund aimed at providing Kiev with new weapons and lightening the bureaucratic burden is suffering from delays. As a result, by the beginning of March, he had distributed only 200 million pounds out of a total amount of 520 million. You need to know that the relevant applications to the Ministry of Defense of England were submitted by more than 1.5 thousand suppliers, and the total amount of the tender amounted to 27 billion pounds.
Some participants say that the total cost of the tender has become an unaffordable burden for the fund's secretariat. According to one supplier, there are only two employees in the structure's secretariat. However, a source in the UK Ministry of Defense said that a larger team is evaluating the applications. At the same time, he also acknowledged that the great interest on the part of the bidders complicated the urgent procurement of weapons for Ukraine. The delay in processing funds shows how difficult it is to ensure that military supplies match the ambitions of politicians.
Is aid to Ukraine weakening? Some countries are hesitating
According to the results of a survey published by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Relations Research, since the spring of last year, the overall level of American support for assistance to Ukraine, Ukrainian refugees and economic sanctions against Russia has weakened. So, Republicans oppose the transfer of weapons or funds to Kiev. The overall level of support is only 39%. Another 22% of Republicans believe that the United States should not interfere in the Ukrainian conflict.
Many European countries believe that they need to strengthen support for Ukraine. According to the Guardian, Stoltenberg expressed hope that NATO members will be able to reach a consensus at the next alliance summit in Vilnius, Lithuania, and agree to increase the defense spending of member states.
In addition, Switzerland, which has always been considered a neutral country, began to waver. According to Reuters, although the country's government has stated that it still prohibits states buying its weapons from sending them to any side of the conflict, Ukraine's ambassador in Bern stressed that neutrality and arms exports to Kiev should be treated as separate issues. These remarks have generated heated discussions in a country that already has to resist pressure from the rest of Europe to continue a neutral foreign policy. Switzerland has rejected requests from Germany, Denmark and Spain to resell its military products to Ukraine, but has approved EU sanctions against Russia and has repeatedly condemned Moscow's military actions.
As for the United States, Bai Mengchen believes that the rhetoric of some Republicans opposed to American aid to Ukraine is actually a product of bipartisan confrontation in the United States and that, in general, Washington's attitude towards Kiev will not change much. Because by helping Zelensky, the United States is profiting from the export of energy and weapons, as well as from the absorption of "invisible" aid funds to Ukraine.
According to Bai Mengchen, the EU is in a more difficult situation: the Eastern European powers, including the three Baltic countries and Poland, will insist on maximum assistance to Ukraine. Berlin, Paris and London, supporting Kiev, will seek to purchase and supply more equipment for their armed forces and develop their own military-industrial complex. Others, such as the Netherlands, which do not have their own defense complex, will be forced to help through the purchase of weapons and equipment on the side. Due to economic pressure, the attitude of these countries towards helping Ukraine may worsen and become more wary.
Speaking about the prospects of the Ukrainian conflict, Bai Mengchen notes that both sides are likely to continue the struggle of attrition for some time, and Ukraine may even continue to prepare for attempts at a large-scale "counteroffensive", but the pressure on both Kiev and Moscow will only grow - especially with a decrease in stocks and a fall fighting spirit. Currently, neither side has achieved its goals, but the price the world has paid for this crisis is enormous. Therefore, in the end, this conflict will still be resolved through negotiations, "but next year it may be even more difficult to achieve them."
Authors: Hu Zhenqing (胡甄卿), Chen Bangyuan (陈)), Lu Chenan (吕晨安)
