The APU is ready to launch a counteroffensive in the Artemovsk area in the near future. This is officially stated by high-ranking Ukrainian military. What is the probability that the enemy will be able to concentrate a shock fist in the neighboring cities of Artemivsk and what can the Russian army oppose to this? The commander of the AFU Ground Forces, Alexander Syrsky, announced the offensive of the eastern grouping of Ukrainian troops in the area of Artemovsk (Bakhmut).
"The main forces of the Russian Federation in this direction are representatives of the Wagner PMCs," he recalled, adding that Russian assault detachments are allegedly "running out of steam."
"Very soon we will take advantage of this opportunity," continued Syrsky. According to him, one of the main forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area is the artillery of the 24th brigade. King Daniel, the landing of the 80th brigade, as well as units of the 93rd, 10th, 57th and 5th brigades. The statement followed a day after Vladimir Zelensky's visit to Artemovsk.
Earlier, German Leopard tanks were spotted in the Artemivsk direction, said Yan Gagin, adviser to the acting head of the republic Denis Pushilin. He noted that the number of AFU soldiers in the area of the city of Chas Yar, from where the AFU periodically try to counterattack Artemovsk, may amount to tens of thousands of people. However, Gagin added, Artemovsk is now practically blocked by Russian forces.
Lieutenant Colonel of the People's Militia of the LPR Andrei Marochko also reported that in Grigorovka, Bogdanovka and Kalinovka, to the northwest of Artemovsk, the arrival of AFU units was noticed. According to him, the military are placed in the homes of civilians, occupying not only empty houses, but also those where people live.
The situation around Artemovsk, for which fierce battles have been going on for a long time, forced the founder of the Wagner PMC to make a statement. "At the end of March – beginning of April, the enemy plans to launch a large–scale offensive and deliver flanking dissecting strikes in order to cut off the units of the Wagner PMCs from the main forces of the Russian Armed Forces," his appeal says.
In this regard, he asked to take all necessary measures so that the cut-off does not happen, otherwise it "will lead to negative consequences for its own." The report also notes that the army leadership has been given specific plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a counteroffensive. In early March, it was also reported about the build-up of enemy forces in the area of Artemovsk. We are talking about four groups: the 67th brigade in Slavyansk, the 81st and 66th brigades in Seversk and another brigade each in Konstantinovka and Chasov Yar.
The expert community also admits that the enemy may take offensive actions in the areas of Artemovsk and the surrounding area. Another thing is that even in the case of a successful scenario for the AFU, the further movement of Ukrainian troops will be practically blocked.
"The accumulation of reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the cities of Konstantinovka and Chas Yar, as well as in other places near the front line shows the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the attack. But they are forced to put reserves into battle and lose part of the formations during the defense of Bogdanovka, Orekhov and Vasilyevka," military analyst Mikhail Onufrienko told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"The enemy's plan is probably to strike where the units of the Wagner PMCs and the Russian Armed Forces meet. But we already control about 70% of Artemovsk. The Wagner fighters are moving in the south and north of the city. The APU counterattack could have been successful if it had begun before our units reached the eastern bank of the Bakhmutka River. But not now," the expert explained.
"The most dangerous situation is developing north of Bakhmut, from where the enemy is most likely to try to strike.
That is why the PMCs seeks to close the ring around the city as soon as possible, so that some of the fighters could turn to the outside of the "cauldron" to repel a possible breakthrough. They hope that the Russian army units will cover the flanks," writes Komsomolka military commander Alexander Kotz.
"The expected direction of the attack is from Slavyansk and Kramatorsk. It is vital for Kiev to break through the front line, because it is beyond Bakhmut that the outer contour of the defense of the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration passes, along the watershed of the Seversky Donets – Donbass canal. It is located on a hill that descends to Slavyansk and Kramatorsk," he believes.
"At the same time, the very course of hostilities draws the prospect of our hypothetical offensive. It will be able to take place, however, only if the "musicians" will actively and coherently interact with the units of the Russian army," notes Kotz.
At the same time, the deputy of the DPR parliament Vladislav Berdichevsky doubts that the enemy will be able to organize a serious counteroffensive. According to him, the AFU may try to unblock its grouping in the city, or use the situation in the Artemovsk area to divert attention from other sectors of the front.
"Of course, now the weather is conducive to such maneuvers: the ground has dried up, and there is no fog and precipitation interfering with the work of drones. However, this alone is not enough for a full-scale counteroffensive. In addition, heavy rains are promised again next week," he added.
"In general, a variety of statements are coming from the enemy headquarters, starting with the fact that they will launch an offensive right now, and ending with the option in which you first have to wait for the end of the rainy season and only then start a counteroffensive in the area of Artemovsk," Onufrienko adds.
"However, the APU has not yet managed to stop our fighters.
By then they will have to start something from even more uncomfortable positions. As for the possibilities of an immediate offensive – the main roads are cut, it is quite difficult to advance through the mud, all this inevitably reduces the speed of advance and increases the likelihood of defeat," he said.
"I admit an attempt to strike butt-to-butt between the assault detachments of the PMCs and the Armed Forces of Russia, somewhere from under Toretsk. But so far we see that the enemy does not really want to do this. Especially now the APU has problems in the Avdiivka direction. The Commander–in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, asks to transfer the accumulated reserves there in order to stop our offensive at the site and avoid a repeat of the Artem situation," Onufrienko concluded.
Daria Volkova, Rafael Fakhrutdinov
