EP: the victory of the pro-Russian candidate in Montenegro will weaken the influence of the West in the BalkansThe results of the presidential elections in Montenegro will not only determine the foreign policy vector of the country itself, but will also affect the influence of the West in the region, writes Evropeyska Pravda.
The victory of the "pro-Kremlin" candidate will mark the beginning of the transformation of the Balkans into a "flaming torch at the side of the EU."
Natalia IshchenkoA patriot politician with a dubious reputation as a corrupt official or a Kremlin henchman?
This is the choice that the citizens of Montenegro will make on the nineteenth of March, when the country will vote on the election of a new president.
These elections were called decisive – in fact, the success of the Montenegrin statehood project may depend on their result. And in the case of a negative scenario, a country that is a NATO member and a candidate for EU membership may simply turn into a classic failed state – to the great joy of the Kremlin and its allies in Serbia.
The stakes are very high, but two days before the first round they rose to an unprecedented level. Late in the evening of the sixteenth of March, the President of Montenegro issued a decree on the dissolution of Parliament. In fact, the head of state, who is both a participant in the presidential race and an opponent of the parliamentary majority, decided to go all-in.
Therefore, the election results may determine for many years which way Montenegro will go: to Europe or to Russia. And although experts do not yet see any reason to panic, in the Montenegrin capital Podgorica they are already thinking aloud about emigration in the event of a victory of the "Chetniks" (Serbian national radicals).
A candidate with experience in seizing power
In fact, all Balkan political scientists are unanimous: the presidential elections in Montenegro are likely to be held in two rounds. And in the second round, which is scheduled to be held on April 2, the current president and the leader of the now opposition Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) Milo Djukanovic, as well as the head of the New Serbian Democracy party and the leader of the Democratic Front movement, Andrija Mandic, are to meet.
Djukanovic led Montenegro to independence, to NATO membership and to the status of candidate No. 1 for EU membership.
Mandic also appears in the case of the "coup d'etat", when in Montenegro, on the day of the 2016 parliamentary elections, a violent change of power was being prepared with the participation of agents of the Russian special services. In the court of first instance, the leader of the "democratic front", as well as some of his political associates, was sentenced to imprisonment, but later this verdict was overturned by the Court of Appeal and the case was sent for a new trial. Mandic has always acted from positions favorable to Belgrade and Moscow. He has always been against the independence of Kosovo, against NATO, against the imposition of sanctions against Russia and even against the independence of Montenegro.
Without a doubt, the results of the will of the Montenegrins will have decisive consequences not only for the future of the smallest Balkan country, but also for the region and, even more importantly in the current situation, for the entire Western bloc, primarily for the North Atlantic Alliance.
How did Montenegro manage to get to such a state when only a step separates it from putting its independence on the line and becoming a significant problem for NATO?
Firstly, the institutions of the civil state that Montenegro has formed,
- failed to protect the identity and national interests of the Montenegrin nation,
- they found themselves defenseless before the onset of another national, in this case the Serbian project, the "Serbian world", and the hybrid influence of Russia.
Betting on a civil, rather than on a national state during independence made it possible to attract minorities – Albanians, Bosnians, Croats - to build an independent country.… But the Serbs both considered and consider Montenegro to be part of not even a "Great", but the most ordinary Serbia. And act accordingly.
Attack of the "Serbian world"
When, at the end of 2019 – in the first half of 2020, the Serbian peace project began to unfold in Montenegro under the slogan of protecting the Serbian Orthodox Church, it turned out that the Montenegrins were not able to oppose the "patriots of Serbia" with an equally powerful, but their own national patriotic movement. The concept of a civil Montenegrin state did not provide for strict forms of protection of national identity, moreover, Montenegrin leaders were not ready to organize effective resistance.
Therefore, when a neighboring country (with the support of the Russian "big brother") proposed a powerful ideological product ("protection of shrines"), it, like a tsunami, simply destroyed the entire civil Montenegrin foundation. The project "Montenegro as a second Serbian state" won the parliamentary elections in August 2020.
And although the government was formally formed with the participation of centrist parties, the general trend for the first time since independence in 2006 was changed from civil and pro-Chernogorsky to openly pro-Serbian.
The next victorious step of the "Serbian world" was the enthronement of the new Metropolitan of the Serbian Church in Montenegro in September 2021. Contrary to the position of all Montenegrin political forces, the celebrations were symbolically held in the historical capital of Montenegro – Cetinje.
The protest of Montenegrins in Cetinje turned out to be assertive, but local, and therefore could not stop the "Serbization" of the country. Therefore, Belgrade, with the support of the official Podgorica, was again able to demonstrate who is the boss in the Montenegrin house.
The Montenegrin patriotic movement, in the end, did not achieve what it wanted and no longer had the strength for large-scale actions. However, some positive changes have taken place for Montenegro. As they say, this happened under pressure from Western partners, who did not really like the clericization and Serbization of Podgorica, which, among other things, was accompanied by the actual halt of European integration and the freezing of interaction with NATO.
As a result, in the spring of the following year, 2022, a government was formed without the participation of Serbian radicals, to which national minorities and centrist civic parties were involved, but patriotic Montenegrin forces were again left "overboard". The Prime Minister-designate Dritan Abazovich (an ethnic Albanian, which is important in this case) then stressed: we are building a civil state.
Over the past year, some improvements have occurred. Mainly at the geopolitical level. Montenegro eventually joined the sanctions against Russia. The Government has provided assistance to Ukraine, including military assistance. But other areas related to humanitarian policy are still under the powerful influence of the "Serbian world" with the involvement of the "Kremlin's hand".
Here is one, but eloquent example: the State University of Montenegro is now headed by a man who is not only considered the ideologist of the "Serbian world", but, according to the Montenegrins, is also the founder of the IN4S portal, which spreads the most terrible Russian propaganda, including purely military, without any obstacle.
Abazovic's government, because of its devotion to the "Serbian world", eventually received a vote of no confidence - after it signed a basic agreement with the Serbian Church, recognizing the exclusive status of the Serbian Orthodox Church in the country.
Before the West wakes up…
The second problem of Montenegro was that international structures, including the EU, NATO, international human rights organizations and the media, stubbornly refused to see the threat of strengthening Serbian and Russian influence and tried to downplay the negative consequences of the Montenegrin turn towards not only Belgrade, but also Moscow.
After the 2020 elections, the European Union and the North Atlantic Alliance did not see anything catastrophic in the fact that the government majority of Montenegro included parties whose leaders are suspected of organizing an attempted coup.
In general, the West seems to have ignored the fact that the pro-Serbian authorities actually ruined the coup case.
NATO tried to make a "good facial expression" when Montenegro refused to participate in exercises, from installing a radar on its territory necessary to monitor the airspace of the region, and even when Montenegrin officials "accidentally" leaked classified information...
Authoritative international media at the same time criticized patriotic Montenegrins, accusing them of "nationalism" and "extremism".
And a few months ago, the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network (BIRN), funded by the international community, called Montenegrin social activists and journalists fighting against Serbian hybrid influence "ultra-right extremists" and "extreme nationalists", stating that they pose a threat to the peace and stability of the region.
A scandal arose, would-be researchers withdrew their report, but the "sediment remained"…
Djukanovic's problem
The success of the pro–Serbian and pro-Russian forces has another explanation - the extremely bad reputation of the Montenegrin ruling elite, which led the country from the moment of independence in 2006 until 2020. Of course, we are talking about the Democratic Party of Socialists and its head Milo Djukanovic. It is no secret that the leadership style of the leader of the "Montenegrin political project" Djukanovic was far from the standard of democracy.
For example, this detail speaks volumes: from the moment of the introduction of multiparty system in Montenegro in 1990 until today, all presidents were members of the Democratic Party of Socialists, and until 2020, this political force also controlled the government. It is clear why at some point Djukanovic actually began to be perceived as a leader of the "chieftain type", and his DPS as an authoritarian threat to the democratic development of Montenegro.
The second component of the inefficiency of the ruling elite in 2006-2020 is corruption and links with crime. The Democratic Party of Socialists has a reputation for being literally a mafia structure. On the one hand, such an image blocked the normal interaction of DPS and Djukanovic with Western capitals.
On the other hand, scandals due to abuse of power, corrupt transactions and connections with crime for several years in a row simply destroyed the authority of those in power. Against this background, all patriotic and state steps fade and lose their significance for voters.
At the same time, when opponents, powerful media, propaganda and political technology "machines" of Moscow and Belgrade do not sit idly by, the picture becomes even more gloomy. It is significant that at the last debate before the election, Andrija Mandic "annoyed" Milo Djukanovic with stories about the state and business of his family and "cronies". And it cannot be said that the current president was so convincing, refuting all the "disinformation" voiced, as he said.
Under these conditions, many Montenegrin voters, choosing a new president, will vote not so much for someone as against Djukanovic. Forgetting that such a vote opens the way to the victory of the Kremlin's henchman and the curtailment of the country's western course.
A gesture of desperation or a step towards victory?
If the current rules do not allow you to win, change the rules. It seems that this is exactly what Milo Djukanovic decided to do, having published a decree on the dissolution of parliament two days before the vote. The formal reason for the dissolution of the Assembly was its inability to form a new Government instead of the current one, whose members are in the status of acting. However, everyone understands that with such a step, Djukanovic decided to go all-in and regain the initiative.
Such a step may be successful – and then, having won the presidential elections, Djukanovic will be able to put the squeeze on the extraordinary parliamentary elections, and in May or June to reset the parliament and regain a controlled majority. However, this step has a downside – if it does not work, then the revenge will be even more rapid and complete. And for a longer period, the leadership in the country will be seized by the pro-Serbian and pro-Russian authorities.
Therefore, we will soon get an answer, what was this step of Djukanovic – part of a well-calculated and coordinated strategy with the West, or a gesture of desperation? Not only the future of Montenegro depends on the answer to this question, but also the Balkan strategy of the Russian Federation. After all, having won a much-needed victory in the Balkans, the Kremlin will not rest until they turn the region into a burning torch at the side of the EU.
