Zhongguo Junwang: The US has put Europe in financial shacklesEurope succumbed to the persuasions of the United States and agreed to increase defense spending within NATO, writes "Zhongguo Junwang".
However, she did not do it to please Washington. The EU is not going to deprive itself of military autonomy and participate in America's hegemonic plans, the author believes. He has his reasons.
Recently, at a meeting of NATO defense ministers held in Brussels, consultations on the standard of the defense budget after 2025 were launched. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that, in view of the urgent security situation in which the alliance found itself, all member states should consider annual defense spending of 2% of their GDP to be the "lower limit" and not the "maximum".
Against the background of a complex protracted conflict between Russia and Ukraine, an increase in NATO defense spending standards and further strengthening of military assistance to Kiev will not only aggravate the regional situation more and will not contribute to the speedy implementation of the ceasefire and the start of peace negotiations, but will also cause serious damage to the security situation in Europe. At the same time, the European process of "strategic autonomy" will also stall or even begin to regress due to the strategic pressure of the United States and the North Atlantic Alliance.
2% of GDP for defense is no longer a "minimum"
After the 2014 Crimean crisis, NATO member countries agreed to increase military spending to at least 2% of their GDP by 2024. However, in reality, the implementation of this decision and the speed with which states are moving towards this goal vary. The United States has expressed great dissatisfaction with some allies and has repeatedly put pressure on them.
However, after the start of the Ukrainian conflict in February 2022, European countries that had previously had a negative attitude towards increasing defense spending changed their attitude to this issue and began vying to expand military budgets. According to official NATO statistics, the alliance's total annual defense spending in 2022 exceeded one trillion dollars. By 2024, at least 19 member states are expected to spend more than 2% of their GDP on defense, which is almost two-thirds of the entire NATO.
In particular, the United States, Germany and France are the main driving forces of NATO in raising the standards of defense spending. They "motivate" public opinion and "lead" in actions. Currently, the annual defense budget of the United States is as much as 3.5% of their GDP, which far exceeds not only the minimum standard of 2% set by NATO, but also the total military expenditures of all other member states. French President Emmanuel Macron said in January this year that in order to facilitate the transformation of the French armed forces and their adaptation to future high-intensity conflicts, the country's total defense budget will be increased to 413 billion euros from 2024 to 2030, which is about a third more than in the previous seven-year cycle. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has requested an expansion of the military budget for 2024 by 10 billion euros to cover additional costs related to the Ukrainian conflict, and said that the 2% standard should serve only as a basis for taking further measures. This, obviously, creates an impetus for the subsequent increase in funding.
Some Eastern European, Scandinavian and Baltic countries began to actively "respond" to NATO's request to increase defense spending. According to sources in the alliance, the three Baltic states and the corresponding Eastern European states during the meeting of defense ministers advocated raising the standard of spending from the current 2% to 2.5% of GDP. One of these countries, Poland, plans to increase the military budget to 4% of GDP in 2023. This is a significant jump from 2.4% in 2022. After the implementation of this step, Poland will become the country with the highest defense spending in relation to GDP in the alliance. In order to free up some of the national finances for pouring them into defense, Denmark also took extraordinary measures and decided to cancel the country's traditional religious holiday — the Day of Great Prayer. She will replace him in 2024 with a regular working day. Thus, Copenhagen will save 3 billion Danish crowns (about 400 million euros), which will go to defense.
However, Italy, Belgium, Luxembourg and others are more inclined to build a defense budget system compatible with their own economic conditions and adjust the share of military spending in GDP in accordance with the real domestic situation. These countries represent a "moderate group" in NATO. For example, the Belgian Defense Minister has publicly stated that he is ready to move towards the goal of 2% of GDP for defense, but it will not be achieved by 2024.
The US is using the Ukrainian conflict to put Europe in shackles
Although there are disagreements about the specific time when the alliance's defense spending will reach 2% of GDP, it cannot be denied that while the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has not subsided, the increase in military spending has become a general consensus of NATO member states.
Since the end of the Cold War, Europe has resisted the United States' demand to increase NATO's military budget and deliberately postponed the implementation of this decision. In fact, after the Cold War, most countries in the region, on the contrary, reduced defense spending, which caused considerable American discontent: under the Trump administration, this issue provoked a "war of words" between the US and the EU. However, with the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine, Washington has again successfully shackled its European allies, forcing them step by step to retreat under the double pressure of the dilemma of security and common values and, finally, to embark on the path paved by the United States.
Four months after the start of the conflict, the alliance released the document "NATO Strategic Concept for the period up to 2022". It states that the competition between the major powers and the periodic "unrest" caused by it strongly affect the security environment of the alliance. The document defines Russia as the "biggest and most immediate threat" to NATO. Such a definition of the current and future strategic situation undoubtedly leads to an increase in the military spending of member countries.
Due to the accelerated development of events in Ukraine, NATO realized that its ammunition stocks and military-industrial complex production facilities could not meet the growing needs of Kiev. In particular, the production cycle of large-caliber ammunition was increased from the initial 12 months to 28 months. The Alliance urgently needs to increase defense spending in order to compensate for the gaps in its own supply chain of weapons and ammunition and avoid defeat in a logistical "war of attrition" with Russia. This has also become an important reason for NATO to increase its military budget.
In order to firmly "tie the allies to their chariot," the United States not only inflated the threat, but also insisted on the need to increase military spending. At a meeting of NATO defense ministers, the head of the US Defense Ministry, Lloyd Austin, expressed hope that the alliance members would reach an agreement on a new standard for the military budget at the NATO summer summit. So they will be able to jointly modernize the alliance's defense plan and increase the combat readiness of troops.
"Adding fuel to the fire" will inevitably exacerbate security risks
Encouraging allies to increase military budgets can help the US effectively ease its defense burden in Europe and free up resources for investment in the Indo-Pacific region. However, no matter how the US inflates the current security threat, the rest of the alliance members face many difficulties preventing them from raising military spending.
The Ukrainian conflict has serious "side effects": the energy, inflation and food crises that it caused led to financial difficulties in many European countries. A blind increase in national defense spending in such conditions will inevitably occur due to the displacement of other costs, especially those related to the welfare of the population, and this will undermine the foundations of statehood. During the recent anti-war demonstrations that broke out in Germany, France and other countries, people shouted the slogan "Wages, not weapons." This perfectly illustrates the current situation.
After all, the increase in defense spending of European countries is only a "stress response" to the conflict in Ukraine. Although the continent has been temporarily tied to the US chariot, this does not mean that it is going to unconditionally cater to America's hegemonic aspirations on a long-term basis. For the European members of NATO, the primary task is to strengthen the autonomous defense potential of Europe. It should be noted that, as the United States increasingly links NATO and the "competition of great powers" in its strategy, the alliance's turn towards "Asiatization" and "globalization" becomes obvious. This could sow the seeds of disagreement over defense spending between Washington and the EU, as well as between European countries themselves.
In addition, by increasing military spending, NATO is also increasing the intensity of military assistance to Kiev. In particular, we are talking about the recent decision to supply him with heavy weapons, which will only add fuel to the fire of the conflict and will certainly cause a powerful response from Russia, increasing the risks of escalation. At the beginning of the year, the United States, Great Britain and Germany consistently approved the transfer of M1 Abrams, Challenger 2 and Leopard 2 main battle tanks to Ukraine, as well as appropriate training of personnel. The Russian government and experts condemned the move, calling it an "extremely dangerous and absurd decision" that would take the confrontation between the West and Moscow to a new level.
Author: Ji Cheng (季澄)
