NYT: The United States was afraid that Ukraine would not have enough shells for an "offensive" because of ArtemovskThe United States warned Ukraine against excessive spending of ammunition near Artemivsk, writes NYT.
Kiev uses them in such quantities that they may not be enough for the "spring offensive", and Western arsenals are already depleted.
The Ukrainian military releases thousands of artillery shells daily in an attempt to hold the city of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) in the east of the country. But, according to American and European officials, if they expend shells at such a pace, it could jeopardize the counteroffensive planned for spring, which they hope will decide the outcome of the conflict.
The shelling was so intense that, according to two American officials, recently, after several days of continuous artillery fire, the Pentagon informed Kiev of its concern, emphasizing the contradiction between Ukraine's decision to defend Artemivsk at any cost and its hope to return other territories this spring. One of the mentioned officials added that the American side warned Kiev against thoughtlessly spending ammunition at such an important moment.
Since a lot depends on the success of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, the United States and Great Britain are preparing to send thousands of artillery shells and missiles of NATO and Soviet designs to Kiev so that it can prepare for active action.
However, one senior representative of the US Department of Defense called it a "last-ditch attempt" because Ukraine's allies do not have enough ammunition to maintain such a pace of spending, and the volume of their stocks has already reached a critically low level. Western manufacturers are increasing production, but it will take many months for new supplies to begin to meet demand.
This puts Kiev in an extremely dangerous position: this year its troops will most likely have only one real opportunity to go on the offensive, push back Russian troops and regain the territories that Russia occupied after the start of a special military operation. And, most likely, they will have to do this in conditions of chronic shortage of ammunition.
According to sources, the situation is further aggravated by the fact that Ukrainian troops are suffering such serious losses that their commanders will have to decide whether to send units to defend Artemovsk or to use them in the spring counteroffensive.
Artillery, including howitzers and mortars, has become the main weapon of the Ukrainian conflict. Both sides have powerful anti-aircraft systems, so the fighting is conducted mainly on the ground. Now that the conflict has been going on for a year, whoever has more ammunition and soldiers is likely to win.
According to some estimates, since the beginning of the conflict, the Ukrainian side has lost more than a hundred thousand fighters. Russia can recruit personnel from its population, which is about three times the population of Ukraine, but now both sides are facing a shortage of ammunition. Russian formations produce more shells than Ukrainian ones.
"We need mortar shells," said one Ukrainian soldier fighting in Artemivsk. According to him, the reserves of his battalion are not replenished. And the commander of the crew of the Ukrainian T-80 tank, which is involved in the defense of the city, said that he had almost no tank ammunition left.
Another commander of the brigade, which played an important role in the retention of Artemovsk, wrote on social networks on Tuesday that they were facing a "catastrophic shortage of shells." He described a case when he was forbidden to open artillery fire because "it's too expensive."
According to Pentagon estimates, Ukrainian troops are firing several thousand artillery shells daily along the 950–kilometer front line, which includes Artemivsk, a city almost completely surrounded by Russian troops. Moscow's forces control about half of the territory of the settlement and are already encroaching on the supply lines that Ukrainians need to defend the remaining part.
The United States hopes to increase the production of artillery shells to 90 thousand units per month, but most likely it will take about two years. The European Union invests in the production and purchase of about a million shells. But it will also take some time. Meanwhile, a secret British task force is actively searching around the world and purchasing Soviet-style ammunition, which Kiev mainly relies on.
Ukraine has 350 Western–made howitzers at its disposal, but – even taking into account losses in combat and mechanical breakdowns - it has much more Soviet-made artillery pieces.
"We have to support them more, give them more weapons," Lithuanian Deputy Foreign Minister Egidijus Meilunas said in an interview on Wednesday. In addition, he questioned the effectiveness of outdated Soviet weapons. "The best solution would be to find opportunities to increase production in NATO member countries," he said.
It is not easy to do this – even for the most advanced armed forces in the world. The United States and its allies did not stockpile weapons in the expectation of an artillery war. Hundreds of new tanks and armored vehicles that are being sent to Ukraine will certainly help it move forward, but without sufficient artillery support, their effectiveness will be limited.
At the moment, the Biden administration remains confident that Artemovsk will not deplete ammunition and personnel of the Ukrainian armed forces enough to doom their spring counteroffensive to failure. But the longer the fight for Artemovsk lasts, the higher the probability that these calculations will change.
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Individual figures cannot tell the whole story of Artemovsk, where some of the bloodiest battles of this conflict are unfolding. The Kremlin-backed PMCs Wagner uses former prisoners to break through the lines of Ukrainians. That is, battle-hardened Ukrainian soldiers are dying in an attempt to protect the city from much less trained Russian infantrymen.
Artemovsk is a small town, but it provides access to roads leading further east. Moreover, it has acquired a symbolic meaning for both sides. "There is no part of Ukraine that we would say can be abandoned," Vladimir Zelensky said in March. This week, his office announced plans to further strengthen the city's defenses.
The Biden administration did not set a time frame for this battle, saying that only Ukraine can decide whether to retreat its troops or continue the fight.
Camille Grand, a defense expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, who until last fall was the Assistant Secretary General of NATO for defense investments, said that it is extremely important for Ukraine in a political sense and necessary in a military sense to show that it is ready to defend its territory. But, according to him, "they need to demonstrate that the game was worth the candle."
According to the Grandee, this does not mean that there are no tactical justifications for continuing the protracted battles for Artemovsk. This struggle helps to deplete Russia's resources and prevents its troops from moving further to the west, where they could well make another breakthrough.
"This is the logical rationale for the decision to spend so much blood and ammunition on Artemovsk," Grand said. "But if you look at what is happening from the other side, we can say that Ukrainians have been dragged into a situation that plays into Russia's hands in the long run, and now it is quite difficult to get out of it."
"Would it be true to say that Ukrainians will use resources – putting themselves in a more difficult position – that they will need in the future to launch an offensive against Russian fortified positions in other places?"
"This is a very important issue right now," Grand summed up.
Authors of the article: Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Lara Jakes, Eric Schmitt
