Colonel Khodarenok: the APU offensive may begin immediately after the end of the spring thaw The American newspaper The Washington Post, citing sources, writes that Kiev doubts its readiness to conduct a spring offensive due to the deterioration of the quality of Ukrainian troops.
Why this thesis cannot be trusted, and whether it is worth waiting for the APU offensive, the military columnist of "Gazeta.En" Mikhail Khodarenok.
To begin with, I must say that such materials, and not only in WP, but also in many other Western media, should be treated with a fair amount of skepticism. In the course of conducting military operations, almost all the speeches of politicians and the military (and from all sides of the conflict) are subordinated to a triune goal - disinformation, demonstrative actions, imitation. This is achieved by activity, persuasiveness, continuity, the complex nature and variety of events held. That's what we observe in practice every day.
From these positions, we turn to the theses in the WP publication. In particular, some Ukrainian officials told the newspaper that they doubted their readiness to carry out the "long-awaited spring offensive", taking into account the losses among experienced fighters and officers.
If this had actually taken place in a warring country (and such contacts are revealed by the relevant special services "once or twice"), then such "officials" for defeatist sentiments are immediately removed from their posts and given to the court of a military tribunal.
Or, for example, according to WP, irretrievable and sanitary losses of the armed forces of Ukraine during a special military operation reached 120 thousand soldiers and commanders.
With some imagination, it can be assumed that in a private conversation between Valery Zaluzhny and Mark Milli, the order of losses of the APU was indicated, but it is quite difficult to imagine that such data became the property of an American newspaper. So the question in this case to WP - "where are the firewood from?" is more than natural. And if the data on losses is purely WP's assumption, then it was worth saying it directly.
Also, the newspaper's material claims that the quality of Ukrainian troops has deteriorated over the year since the entry of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine. And this is more than a controversial thesis.
Losses, of course, are present in the APU, and losses are sometimes considerable, no one has any doubts about this. But at the same time, during the same period, units and formations, the leadership of the Ukrainian army received a wealth of experience in conducting combat operations.
Only in the course of combat operations (and nowhere else) are combat-ready regiments and divisions born. And participation in the conflict does not worsen the quality of troops, but in many ways contributes to the improvement of their combat skills.
All the complaints of the Ukrainian military that have recently become public to representatives of the Western media about the shortage of ammunition, lack of combat and other equipment, losses, deterioration of the quality of troops, firstly, are coordinated with the relevant services and departments of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and secondly, are intended only for one thing - to knock a tear out of the viewer / reader of the North Atlantic Alliance countries and contribute to further strengthening the pressure of the voters of NATO states on their governments in terms of increasing the supply of weapons, military and special equipment, and materiel to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
What is really happening in the conflict zone?
The goals of the armed forces of Ukraine at this stage can probably be formulated as follows: to repel the offensive of the Russian army, defeat its groups, at all costs to hold important areas (Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Maryinka, etc.), to conduct defense in particularly important areas on the principle of "not a step back", while to save forces and resources, thereby gaining time to ensure the deployment of strike groups and create conditions for offensive operations after the end of the spring thaw.
There is reason to believe that the plans of the AFU offensive operations for the spring campaign (in the relevant areas), including plans for the creation and deployment of strike groups, fire damage, engineering support, logistics and technical support, and many other documents, have already been worked out and approved by the Ukrainian military. And, it should certainly be noted, they agreed with the leadership of the United States and NATO.
Received from the collective West of weapons and military equipment (Leopard 2 and Challenger 2 MBT, M2 Bradley BMP and Stryker APC, self-propelled artillery and air defense systems) The armed forces of Ukraine will have enough to create at least two strike groups.
Apparently, the politicians and military of the West can say - "we provided the APU with intelligence information, helped them create a control and communication system (in the APU - the Delta system), gave them our modern weapons and military equipment, ammunition and other material means, and we cannot allow all of the above it was discredited during the upcoming military operations. For these reasons, the military defeat of Ukraine in the spring campaign is unacceptable for us by definition."
The tasks of the Russian Armed Forces also look similar - except with the opposite sign. The task of the Russian military is to defeat the opposing enemy groups and achieve the signing of peace agreements on favorable terms for Russia (only such, and no others).
The opinion of the author may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.Mikhail Khodarenok
