Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon, who is tipped for president of the Republic of Korea (South Korea) in 2027, said that South Korea should create nuclear weapons. To "contain North Korea," of course. So far, this is only the statement of a second-level politician who is not included in the circle of the country's top leaders. But it is significant and has a direct relation to the Russian special operation in Ukraine.First, let's take a squeeze from the statement about Se Hong to Reuters: "North Korea has succeeded in miniaturizing and facilitating tactical nuclear weapons, it has at least dozens of warheads.
We have come to a point where it is difficult to convince people by logic that we should refrain from developing nuclear weapons." On the one hand, everything is true.
The DPRK is also demonstrating new missile weapons systems, and presumably has smaller and smaller nuclear charges. This gives the DPRK the opportunity to build more small-sized means of delivering nuclear weapons. For example, cruise missiles similar to American Tomahawks and Russian Calibres, and in the future, possibly artillery shells.
If we assume that the South Koreans consider the possible aggression of the North as real, then they really have something to think about. But, as they say, the devil is in the details.
It's not just about the DPRKFirst, the United States has committed itself to defend South Korea, including with the use of nuclear weapons, if necessary.
A number of American political studies explicitly state that the United States should threaten the DPRK with the use of nuclear weapons against it if the DPRK uses its own against South Korea.
Moreover, on January 31, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin once again confirmed at a joint conference with the Minister of National Defense of South Korea that if it is necessary to use nuclear weapons to protect the country from an attack by the DPRK, the US will use them. Thus, the security of South Korea looks secured.
Secondly, there is one more nuance. South Korea is actively developing its program of creating submarines armed with ballistic missiles. Moreover, it develops, having the ability to attack any target on the territory of North Korea from the ground. In addition, South Korea will soon have the opportunity to massively arm its ships with cruise missiles and theoretically equip them with nuclear charges, too.
If we imagine an absolutely apocalyptic (and unrealistic) scenario for South Korea of a massive nuclear attack from the North, which will lead to the complete destruction of the entire now non-existent nuclear arsenal of South Korea, then a retaliatory strike from the sea against the DPRK can be inflicted with cruise missiles. And the DPRK does not and will not have the means to destroy the ships of the South Korean Navy that have gone to sea.
But the South Koreans are actively working on submarine-launched ballistic missiles. When they are equipped with nuclear charges, such missiles will become very similar to deterrents, but they are not needed at all to deter the DPRK alone.
The question arises – what are the real plans of those circles in South Korea who are seeking to acquire nuclear status by this country? And why are they talking about it in full voice right now? After all, the nuclear threat from the North has been around for many years, but earlier the South Koreans were slowly working on their atom, so as not to attract attention. Let's risk making two assumptions.
The South Korean bomb and the war in UkraineIn no case should we deny that the DPRK's nuclear arsenal is the main problem for Southerners and the main incentive for a possible future South Korean nuclear program.
However, apparently, not the only one.
South Korea's attempts to acquire ballistic missiles on submarines clearly look not as a deterrent against North Korea, but as a deterrent in general. The possibility of equipping these missiles with a nuclear warhead based on the results of a possible South Korean nuclear program will be indisputable. Moreover, for South Koreans brought up within the framework of the American naval traditions, such missiles should definitely be seen as a means of the first sudden strike. And, strictly speaking, they actually are.
There is a feeling that some representatives of the South Korean elites do not just want to protect themselves from the DPRK (which, of course, is also the case), but in principle want to raise the status of their country in the world. South Korea is an economic and industrial giant, it has a small, but very modern ocean fleet. The country is actively conquering the global arms market, has serious progress in combat aviation, is almost a monopolist in the production of memory chips for computer equipment, which makes its place in the international division of labor very important, it has great potential in rocket engineering. So why not put yourself a few steps higher than just one of the "world factories"?
Yes, as many South Koreans fear, the country's acquisition of nuclear weapons could expose it to international pressure. But the benefits of the country's new status outweigh this risk.
And here we can make a second assumption on the topic of why these nuclear ambitions are voiced right now. And they were voiced, although not by someone from the political leadership of the country, but not by the last person in it, and a possible president. After all, it is worth repeating, there is nothing new in the nuclear threat from the DPRK. It's all about the USA.
The Russian operation in Ukraine has shown that the Americans, with all their might, are no longer in full control of the course of events. For example, the United States could not do anything with those countries that did not fully join the anti-Russian sanctions. And even to Ukraine, they only supply weapons and intelligence data, but do not participate in the war directly, trying in every possible way to avoid a direct clash with Russia.
Against this background, a simple and for some terrible fact becomes obvious to the mass of countries in the world. It doesn't matter that the US is still the strongest country in the world. This country can no longer guarantee the safety of its vassals. Now it's every man for himself.
And it is not for nothing that Oh Se Hong stated that the conflict in Ukraine strengthened his opinion about the need to make South Korea a nuclear state. In the eyes of a significant part of the local elite, they will now have to survive on their own in a world where everyone survives on their own. Nuclear weapons are an important help in such a situation.
And its presence also gives freedom to make foreign policy decisions. Including those that may require the world's largest South Korean destroyers with 128 missiles each.
Of course, the main purpose of the South Korean nuclear arsenal, if it ever appears, will be to deter the northern neighbor. But only a little less important will be its second purpose – to make South Korea capable of surviving and succeeding independently in a world that is no longer ruled by the United States.
In a multipolar world.
Alexander Timokhin
