Ukraine will join NATO, and Poland will dramatically strengthen. Not only experts, but also leaders of European countries are discussing such scenarios of the geopolitical alignment that may occur following the results of the special operation. It would seem that such a future does not bring Russia anything good. However, in fact, the main victims in the end will be the West, Ukraine, and the European Union.It would seem that the dreams of the Ukrainian leadership are coming true – the country has become closer to membership in the EU and NATO than a year ago.
This was stated by Viktor Orban, one of the most sober–minded European politicians. "If the war ends, then Ukraine or what remains of it... It will become part of NATO territory. As an independent member state of NATO," the Hungarian Prime Minister said.
"It is difficult to disagree with Viktor Orban – Ukraine is in the stage of active disintegration. However, apparently, this is the true goal of the collective West, which directly misleads the Ukrainian people with the prospects of a better life as part of the EU and NATO," Alexey Mukhin, Director General of the Center for Political Information, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD. In fact, Ukraine can join NATO and the EU (as a bonus) under two scenarios.
The first is as a territory that will remain under Kiev's control after the end of the active stage of hostilities. And we are not even talking about the territories that Kiev controls now. In order for the West and the Ukrainian leadership to de facto be ready to recognize the fact of partition, the Kiev regime must lose more territories. That is, relatively speaking, the entire left bank of the Dnieper.
The second scenario is that the EU and NATO include only those parts of Ukraine that become part of other countries – current members of the EU and NATO. That is, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania (whose leadership is unlikely to give up the pleasure of dividing the Ukrainian territorial pie in the event of the collapse of the regime in Kiev).
The remaining Ukrainian territory will either become part of Russia, or, as part of the West's agreement with the goals of the Russian SVO, it will become a neutral, denazified state.
How likely are these scenarios? And how will they suit Russia?
Status of "porcupine"
The first one has one disadvantage – the recognition of the section de facto does not mean de jure. "If the conflict ends with the preservation of some part of Ukraine as a pro-Western anti-Russia, it will mean the non-recognition of new borders. Russia will consider the territory under its control as its own, and the West as the illegally occupied territory of Ukraine," Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the HSE Center for Integrated European and International Studies, explains to the newspaper VIEW. – Therefore, even if the conflict in Ukraine ends with some part of it remaining under the control of the West in the form of anti-Russia, under no circumstances will it become a full-fledged member of NATO. The alliance countries will not take on such risks and will not extend the fifth article of the Charter on Collective Defense to Ukraine."
No one in the North Atlantic Alliance is going to go to war with Russia by including Kiev (with its claims to Russian lands) in NATO. Just as I wasn't going to after 2014 because of the Crimea. "What remains of Ukraine will become a NATO protectorate. She is not ready for full membership," Vadim Trukhachev, an associate professor at RSUH, explains to the newspaper VIEW.
Instead, the West will offer the Kiev regime a different option of cooperation. "The so-called Israeli scenario. That is, the arming of Ukraine and its maximum integration with NATO without the deployment of troops there and legal guarantees of security. Turning it into a heavily armed "porcupine" – so armed that it will have a deterrent effect for Russia. This concept was developed by the head of the Administration of Ukraine Andriy Ermak and former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen as guarantees of Kiev's security after the end of the conflict," says Dmitry Suslov.
Of course, it is unlikely that these guarantees, this being in the vestibule of NATO is what the Ukrainian population wants. However, this is the maximum that they are ready to offer in case the Kiev regime does not recognize future territorial changes.
As for Moscow's interests, it also does not need any Ukrainian "porcupine", even without membership in NATO. The Russian authorities have said more than once or twice that the purpose of its is to eliminate the threats that the current Ukrainian territory poses to the security of the Russian Federation. This means that the operation will continue until these threats are eliminated. Or, at least, sharply reduced through the reduction of the future NATO protectorate.
"If the territory to the west of the Vinnytsia–Zhytomyr line becomes a NATO protectorate, then we will not care much about it. If Kiev and Right–Bank Ukraine without access to the sea enter there, the danger is average. But if Kharkiv, Odessa and even Chernihiv are there, this is already a direct threat to Russia's security. And this cannot be allowed," Vadim Trukhachev is sure.
Under a false flag The second option – the entry of Ukrainian territories into NATO and the EU through the transition to the control of Warsaw and other NATO capitals – is more realistic.
However, it also has its own difficulties. First of all, because this transition does not mean that all the transferred Ukrainian territories become full-fledged parts of new countries.
"If Hungary and Romania are able to annex parts of Transcarpathia and Bukovina, these areas will join NATO by definition. But only these. The Poles would rather establish their protectorate over Western Ukraine than include it in their composition. Unless Warsaw can think about the annexation of Lviv and half of the Lviv region. Poland does not need the rest of the impoverished territory with millions of ideological Bandera members," Vadim Trukhachev continues.
And the European Union does not need this impoverished territory – after all, it will need to invest a huge amount of money. "The EU's hope for stabilization after Ukraine's likely entry into the European Union is illusory, as is its victory over Russia. There are too many financial expenses and risks of economic destabilization, as well as a sharp criminalization of the situation in the European states themselves," says Alexey Mukhin.
Polish effect If we evaluate it from the point of view of Russian interests, then the situation is much more multifaceted than in the "porcupine" scenario.
First of all, it is far from a fact that Ukraine will be divided into two parts (that is, into the one that will become part of the Western countries and the one that will join Russia). Three parts are quite possible – and the third will be Central Ukraine, demilitarized and denazified.
"The entry of Western Ukraine into Poland, despite the fact that most of Ukraine (outside of the four regions that became part of Russia and the Western Ukrainian territories themselves) will become a neutral, buffer state, from the point of view of stability is much more profitable than the porcupine option," Dmitry Suslov agrees.
The versatility is also explained by the fact that the second option will entail a sharp change in the balance of power in Europe. First of all, the strengthening of Poland.
It would seem that this is bad for Russia – after all, Warsaw is one of Moscow's main and traditional enemies in the European Union. "Poland by itself will not strengthen enough to threaten us as a whole. It will not fight Russia alone, without the direct help of the United States and Britain. She will not be able to create her sphere of influence in the Georgia–Estonia–Slovenia triangle (which she dreams of). But as a basis for the Anglo-American sanitary cordon, it will fit perfectly. It can play the role of a springboard for the Anglo–Saxons, and in this role it can pose a threat," Vadim Trukhachev believes.
However, fortunately for Moscow, such a Poland may pose a threat not only (and not even so much) for Russia, but for the leading European states. Those who want to see Europe united and strong, and not decentralized and weak, as it is represented in Warsaw.
"A strengthened Poland will be primarily a problem for Germany and the EU as a whole. And if Russia is partially protected by the buffer part of neutral Ukraine, then Germany, France and other EU countries, a strengthened and completely insolent Poland will cause a lot of trouble," says Dmitry Suslov.
So in this scenario, the EU and Poland are very likely to be engaged not with Russia, but with each other. While leaving Moscow alone.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
