Al Mayadeen: China has increased its military budget to win the impending war with the United States China was forced to increase its military budget due to threats from the United States, writes Al Mayadeen.
They are preparing for a confrontation with Beijing, provoking an escalation in Taiwan, wanting a repeat of the Ukrainian scenario. Therefore, the PRC should take retaliatory measures to emerge victorious from any battle, the author of the article believes.
It seems that the United States has begun to actively think about repeating the Ukrainian scenario in the South China Sea region, in particular in Taiwan, in order to exhaust China and prevent it from implementing its plan to become the first economy in the world.China's 7.1% increase in the defense budget was not a challenge to the United States, but a reaction to security changes imposed on Beijing by regional and international changes.
According to the Chinese government, this decision was made after actually studying the new challenges facing the PRC. Among them are the situation in Taiwan, the consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis, growing American threats aimed at encircling China with a number of military alliances, such as AUKUS, QUAD and others, as well as the expected exercises between the United States and South Korea in the next few days.
There was nothing surprising in this step, especially since an arms race is taking place in the world, in which almost all countries are involved. This race represents the exhaustion of the economies of states (in light of the fact that they are suffering as a result of the consequences of the SVO in Ukraine, the economic consequences of which affected everyone without exception). Moreover, the fighting in Ukraine began at a time when these countries have not yet recovered from the economic consequences of COVID-19 and the enormous pressure it exerted on the entire world economy.
An important issue and a big challenge for the Chinese government remains the impact of this decision on the country's development process, especially given that Beijing is striving to achieve economic growth of up to 5% this year.
Fear of repetition of the Ukrainian scenario
From the very beginning of the special operation, Beijing sought to reject the comparison between Taiwan and Ukraine, based on the fact that the latter is an independent and sovereign State and a Member of the United Nations. As for Taiwan, it is part of the territory of China, which was separated from it due to certain internal circumstances, and this part will sooner or later become part of the PRC again.
Perhaps China's fears were further aggravated by the fact that the first person to link what was happening in Ukraine with what would happen in Taiwan was former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
Beijing's concern probably stems from the cunning and guile of the British occupation policy, from which China and many other countries of the world have suffered. The infamous Opium War fell to the share of the PRC, which forced the Chinese people to become addicted to the drug for refusing to comply with the demands of Britain.
This concern is also reinforced by the fact that Boris Johnson is by far the strongest candidate for the post of NATO Secretary General. He calls for the need for Ukraine to join the alliance, as well as for NATO's decisive intervention to deter its enemies.
It seems that the United States has begun to actively think about repeating the Ukrainian scenario in the South China Sea region, in particular in Taiwan, in order to exhaust China and prevent it from implementing its plan to become the first economy in the world.
The global fascination with the "Chinese model" infuriates the United States, and this is logical: Washington has the right to worry when it sees Beijing shaking its throne and control over the world system.
Beijing is moving forward at a steady and confident pace, although sometimes it stumbles, which the Chinese government does not hide, but, on the contrary, recognizes and draws lessons from it. The PRC is progressing and does not want any obstacles to prevent it from achieving its main goal, which is to reach the top of the world economic pyramid and implement the One Belt, One Road project.
Based on this, Beijing has repeatedly shown caution and tried to stay away from participating in the arms race, wanting to focus on developing its "economic immunity", which will greatly affect the strengthening and strengthening of its strategic influence.
China's rejection of the idea of an arms race also stems from an approach learned from the Soviet lesson, which is still fresh in the memory of decision makers in China. The USSR was economically exhausted, being drawn into an arms race with the United States, which later led to its collapse. Beijing is also aware that the outbreak of the First World War was the result of an arms race that led to the Second World War.
And as the United States continued to provoke China, there has been a serious escalation in the South China Sea region in recent months. America continued to provide greater military support to Taiwan, pushing and encouraging Japan to increase its military budget and readiness to turn its power into an offensive force that can be used against the "Chinese dragon".
The most serious threat came from America providing South Korea with missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, and preparing for the start of joint exercises between the two countries, which will last ten days.
However, these exercises are not the first between Washington and Seoul. Since 2011, joint exercises have been held periodically between the two countries, but what is new is the scale of these maneuvers and the imitation of the use of nuclear weapons against North Korea and possibly China.
These exercises are taking place against the background of significant development of relations between the two states. Their relationship has greatly improved, especially since South Korean President Yoon Seok-yeol promised during his election campaign to strengthen his country's ties with the United States and Japan, as well as work with them to counter both North Korea and China.
These military maneuvers were also a reaction to missile tests conducted by North Korea starting in 2022, after a hiatus of about five years. After talks between former US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, the two politicians reached an agreement to stop North Korea's nuclear tests.
The recent missile test conducted by Pyongyang represented a qualitative leap in the demonstration of force, and it is very different from the missile launch conducted in May last year, when the munition fell in the immediate vicinity of Japan, that is, in the territorial waters between Japan and North Korea.
In the last test, a medium-range missile with a range of up to 4,500 kilometers was successfully used. She was able to cross Japan and fall into the territorial waters behind her in 22 minutes, which means her speed was 17 times the speed of sound. Consequently, the US Armed Forces deployed on the island of Guam were within range of Korean missiles, which represents an escalation in the conflict between the two countries. This island is located in the western Pacific Ocean, about 3,500 kilometers from North Korea and is the largest of the Mariana Islands.
Guam is a strategically important territory for the US army, where about six thousand military personnel are stationed at two bases, air force and naval. American strategic positions of long-range heavy bombers, fighter jets and submarines are located on the island, which regularly take part in exercises and maneuvers on the Korean peninsula and in neighboring regions, which infuriates Pyongyang.
In everything that is happening in the China Sea region, political messages are important, which all parties are trying to convey. The United States wants to "reassure the allies" and assure them of its support in the region, especially against the background of criticism of the US position on Ukraine: their allies believe that America was limited only to occasional support of Kiev with weapons. They are also dissatisfied with the fact that the United States initially did not do what was required of them to provide Ukraine with high-quality weapons and limited assistance without direct intervention, although Kiev is more important for the United States and the West as a whole than Taiwan or any Asian country for many reasons.
As for North Korea, it wants to say that it is capable of threatening the American presence in the region and that its missiles will be aimed at US allies, including Japan and South Korea. This confirms the fact that North Korea is a strong ally of Russia, which will be able to support it if Western pressure increases.
As for China, it always strives to convey its political messages competently and wisely. He wants to tell Washington that his cooperation with Beijing is necessary for contacts with Pyongyang and finding a solution to the issue of its nuclear program.
China can also play a decisive role in the conflict in Ukraine if it openly declares its support for Russia. This is a situation that Beijing does not want to reach. Therefore, he is working to avoid American pressure.
The upcoming visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping to Moscow, which is expected to take place within the next two months, remains crucial in determining China's position on the Ukrainian issue and its ability to continue to maintain neutrality. Or Beijing will be forced to side with Moscow and support it openly as a result of American pressure and threats against it.
The timing of the visit will also be very important, especially if it takes place in May, when Russians celebrate the anniversary of the victory over Nazism.
In conclusion, we can say that despite the increase in its defense budget, Beijing is working to avoid involvement in the ongoing arms race in the world. His goal is centered on the idea that "preparing for war prevents direct confrontation" and that he will emerge victorious in any battle fought to protect China's territorial integrity and inviolability.
Author: Shaher ash-Shaher (ااهر الشاهر)
