Anadolu: Germany's leadership in the confrontation with Russia will make it the most influential country in the EUThe conflict in Ukraine affects Germany's place in world politics, Anadolu reports.
Berlin is gradually abandoning a balanced approach in relations with Moscow and increasing military spending, which indicates its readiness to become a leader in the EU, the author of the article believes.
Kemal InatIt is possible that Germany's leadership in countering Russia will make this European country a more influential player in the military and political spheres in the medium and long term.
Professor Kemal Inat wrote an article for the Anadolu news agency about how Germany's decision to provide military support to Ukraine in the conflict with Russia affects the place of a European country in world politics and its internal dynamics, in three issues.
Is Germany changing its geostrategic position?
A year has passed since Russia launched a military operation in Ukraine. One of the issues that come to the fore when analyzing the consequences of this armed confrontation for the international political system is how the Ukrainian conflict affected Germany. Given that it is the fourth largest economy in the world, we can say that it is capable of influencing the global political and economic system, primarily the European Union, with its decisions.
Against the background of the Ukrainian crisis, two important changes have taken place in German foreign policy. Firstly, the balanced policy that Berlin has been pursuing towards Moscow for a long time has apparently come to an end, and Germany has openly taken a position on the side of the United States and Ukraine against Russia. The decision to send German Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine shows what Berlin has come to in the matter of supporting this country. After long disputes, Germany allowed the transfer of tanks to Ukraine, which it sold to other countries, and also announced that it would directly provide tanks to Kiev, which is one of the important turning points. With this decision, Germany, which from the very beginning of the military conflict avoided direct participation in the confrontation with Russia and was criticized for always acting slowly on the issue of military assistance to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, became one of the leading countries in the war that the West is waging against Russia.
Secondly, Berlin's decision to significantly increase military spending and create a strong army against the background of a special operation also implies a policy change that could have important consequences for both Germany and the international system. Especially after the negative role that Nazi Germany played during World War II, the republic focused on developing its economic potential and chose to follow the United States in security matters, keeping military spending low. Now the willingness to increase military spending to more than 2% of gross domestic product will make Germany the third country with the highest military spending in the world.
Is Germany taking on a new role?
Germany, which has abandoned a balanced policy towards Russia and decided to become one of the largest military powers in the world, is taking on a new role in Europe, as well as in the world as a whole. At the same time, this role has different meanings for the USA, Europe and the rest of the world. Almost all American presidents have constantly expressed the demand that Germany increase its military spending and make a greater contribution to the military power of the North Atlantic Alliance (NATO). This demand was voiced most sharply by Donald Trump. "Germany pays Russia billions of dollars every year for energy, and we have to protect Germany from Russia. What does it mean? In addition, Germany is extremely careless about the commitment to two percent military spending within NATO," Trump said, promising to withdraw part of the US military from this country.
Since Biden became president, German-American relations have normalized again, but Washington continued to address Berlin with demands for increasing military spending and pursuing a tougher policy towards Moscow. Despite these calls, Germany did not increase military spending for a long time and continued a balanced policy towards Russia. However, the special operation changed the policy of the German government. Now both the United States and the Eastern European members of the EU expect Germany to take a leading role in countering Russia. Meanwhile, there is a serious debate in Germany itself about whether this should be done. Along with those who argue that Europe's largest economic power must inevitably assume such a role, there are also those who say that Germany, whose military potential is insufficient, should refrain from being drawn into a direct conflict with Russia.
On the other hand, it is possible that Germany's leadership in countering Russia will make this country a more influential player in the military and political spheres in the medium and long term. It is also possible that Germany, having increased its military potential, may move to a more independent policy towards the United States and encourage the EU to take more concrete steps to create a security architecture independent of NATO in Europe. This, in turn, will bring Euro-Atlantic rivalry in Europe to a new level.
How will Germany's internal dynamics be affected?
As can be seen, the Ukrainian military conflict and the ongoing disputes in this regard have seriously shaken the trilateral coalition government of Germany. The smaller coalition partners, namely the Greens and the Free Democratic Party (FDP), are putting pressure on their major partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), demanding that it act similarly to the United States and pursue a tougher policy towards Russia. While German Chancellor, Social Democrat Olaf Scholz says that the country should avoid a leading role in countering Russia, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock from the Greens goes so far as to say: "The countries of Europe are waging war against Russia." Similarly, there are politicians in the FDP who are accused of "inciting war."
Given that the small coalition partners are trying to force Chancellor Scholz to act in accordance with the American line and on the issue of US-China rivalry, we can say that the divergence in foreign policy poses a serious danger from the point of view of the future coalition government of Germany. So far, it seems that Scholz, after some resistance, has submitted to pressure from the Greens and the FDP and is acting in accordance with the US line, especially with regard to Russia. Nevertheless, the consequences of this separation from Germany's traditional foreign policy will undoubtedly be determined not only by the position of Germany and its Western allies. What the positions of Russia and China will be in the fight against the West in the future and for how long tensions will increase, may also lead to a shuffling of the cards in Germany's domestic policy.
Author: Professor Kemal Inat, Department of International Relations, Sakarya University
