Resalat: Germany's policy on Ukraine will not bring peace, but will lead to chaos in Germany itselfGermany is trying to achieve peace in Ukraine by methods that destroy not only this country, but also Germany itself, writes Resalat.
Pumping Kiev with weapons will only lead to an escalation of the conflict, as well as plunge Berlin even deeper into political, economic and energy chaos.
A year has passed since the beginning of the armed confrontation in Ukraine, but Berlin continues to insist on a policy that could end in self-destruction for Germany.
The policy of the German government during the months of the armed conflict in Ukraine turned into the apotheosis of political blindness. The already rather weak coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz (consisting of three parties with radically different political programs – the Social Democrats, the Free Democrats, or the Free Democratic Party of Germany, and the so-called Greens), even on domestic policy issues constantly diverging in opinion, regarding the foreign policy issue that has become the most difficult for Europe, that is, the armed conflict in Ukraine has not yet been able to voice a rational and convincing explanation for public opinion of the need for Germany to support Ukraine "to the bitter end" at all costs.
The federal government's simultaneous implementation of the policy of "both war and peace" regarding the conflict in Ukraine has led to numerous protests by German citizens — and at times the confrontation becomes acute. The actions that took place in different parts of Germany on the anniversary of the beginning of the armed phase of the conflict in Ukraine vividly and clearly confirm this reality. In this confrontation, Germany, on the one hand, is trying to be "moderate and wise". But, on the other hand, having made the decision to send Leopard tanks to Ukraine, it thus becomes part of this confrontation, whether it wants to or not. And it seems that the year of such a "double policy" for Germany ends in complete confusion and large-scale chaos!
Scholz's new commitments
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, in addition to his commitments to support Ukraine "as much as necessary," recently announced a new promise – the country should take "serious steps" in the field of strengthening the military industry and start producing as many weapons as possible. According to the Federal Chancellor, production facilities in the field of ammunition, equipment and military equipment must be seriously strengthened to cope with the "new security challenges" that arose as a result of the "Russian aggression" in Ukraine.
During a speech in the Bundestag, the federal Parliament of Germany, Scholz recalled that the government is already negotiating with representatives of the defense industry about the need for a "complete change of course", which will allow for faster and more efficient production of weapons… At the same time, purchases of military equipment for the Bundeswehr and other European armies should also become more systematic and be conducted more efficiently, according to the German politician.
Olaf Scholz also added that the goal of the "new deal" should be to create a powerful industrial base in Germany so that the country can contribute to strengthening peace in Europe and protect freedom and democracy on the continent. That is, according to the Chancellor, in order to achieve peace, it is necessary not to facilitate negotiations between the parties, but to produce and purchase more weapons and then supply them to one of the parties to the conflict! Without bothering to explain this illogism, Scholz continued in his speech to talk about the production of necessary weapons, equipment, ammunition, which, however, would be "not an easy task" – long-term contracts would be needed to develop production capacities, and if the state does not have enough resources for this, then it is necessary to negotiate with business representatives on large-scale installments. According to experts, such a "new deal" will not only bring peace to the east of Europe, but also promises Germany a complete breakdown of the financial system, coupled with the problems of the energy sector, which also have not disappeared anywhere.
A peaceful policy of deterrence or a militant policy of "decisive action"?!
It is obvious that this "new policy" of Germany, which commentators have already dubbed "weapons", has nothing to do with deterrence. As follows from Scholz's words, he intends to further strengthen the role of the Germans in the armed confrontation, which is extremely dangerous not only for Germany, but for the whole of Europe. This is said not only by critics of the government, but even by the chancellor's party members.
Such a belligerent policy regarding the conflict in Ukraine and the occupation of double positions such as "no war, but no peace without victory" will lure Scholz into the network of that specific game being played by the opponents of the Social Democrats, that is, the Christian Democrats party, which is trying to extract dividends for the next elections against the background of the crisis. In the midterm local elections in many districts, the Social Democrats have already suffered a very heavy defeat, because many voters who hoped for Germany's mediating role in the Ukrainian crisis realized that under the current government these aspirations will not come true. As a result, part of the electorate of the Social Democrats became disillusioned and began to move to the camp of their opponents. Now the majority of German citizens treat Scholz not at all as a symbol of rationality and peace, which only recently brought him victory, but as a symbol of unrest, protests and chaos in the country. And this picture is fundamentally different from the image that the Social Democrats created at the last national elections, and from the promises that they so generously distributed. Many voters saw that the image of the winners of the last election turned out to be completely false.
Generous but empty promises of European leaders to Zelensky
The mentioned speech of the German Chancellor has a clear connection with the recent trip of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky to Europe and his speech in Brussels, and then at the Munich Security Conference. The speech came after European leaders promised the President of Ukraine to speed up the process of sending weapons and ammunition to Kiev. As reported by Euronews TV channel, Secretary General of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization Jens Stoltenberg recently warned that the amount of ammunition consumed by Ukrainian troops far exceeds the production of NATO member countries, but after that he did not appeal to the warring parties for restraint, but urged the members of the Atlantic bloc to urgently increase their production capacity. At the same time, it is not superfluous to note that after the Second World War and before the start of Russia's special operation in Ukraine, Germany always adhered to the strategy of refusing military intervention and refrained from supplying weapons to warring countries. Moreover, German politicians have maintained this line quite consistently for more than half a century. But just three days after the start of hostilities in Ukraine, that is, back in February last year, Olaf Scholz began to break this taboo, as he initiated the adoption of a new budget of 100 billion euros for the modernization of the German army. But now this taboo has come to more dangerous borders! Over the past year, Berlin has been sending various weapons and military equipment to Kiev, from rocket launchers and German-made armored vehicles to Leopard battle tanks. It is obvious that the speech of the German Chancellor was aimed at somehow smoothing out the overall impression of Zelensky's tour of Europe, during which he generally achieved almost nothing significant, except assurances and promises of European leaders in "unwavering support until victory."
"We know that our business is non-standard!"
But the culmination of the mentioned speech of the German Chancellor is the recognition of the "unconventionality" of Berlin's actions to arm Kiev against the background of a military conflict! Scholz admitted that the armed conflict in Ukraine has been going on for the second year and is far from over. The Chancellor also said that he was aware of the "unconventionality" of Germany's political course based on the supply of weapons to the conflicting side, and the "unusual" nature of such a path, which, according to him, is aimed at achieving peace. Scholz even said that he understands those citizens of the country who do not support such a policy. But at the same time, he continued to assure of the "necessity" of such a course and could not logically justify what this need is.
The Chancellor only noted that the German government does not take the issues of arms supplies lightly and that every decision is considered and verified. But immediately the head of the German government stressed that Ukraine's support is necessary to protect the "European world order" and is allegedly aimed at ensuring that NATO does not turn out to be a party to the conflict.
After that, many observers and analysts in Germany began to argue that they "point blank" do not see a connection between these two goals, which the chancellor spoke about. Such statements, they say, definitely cannot satisfy and calm the townsfolk and supporters of peace in Germany. Germany, like France, the two leading European powers, played a double game in the conflict in Ukraine, both before February 2022 and after it, and the past year has shown that they are definitely not able to win in this game! The only thing they have shown is the ability to maintain the state of the hot phase of the conflict, but many observers argue that this ability will soon come to an end and that it should be stopped immediately before it is too late. It is better, in their opinion, to work out some kind of compromise now than to bring this game to the point that Moscow will completely dictate both the terms of peace and the conditions for further actions.
But instead, European politicians only talk about the need for peace, but they intend to achieve this peace by methods directly opposite to the stated goals! If we are to move and balance between peace and war, then such a policy also requires, as many European observers say, dexterity and tact, which clearly do not exist, at least they are completely absent from the official representatives of the NATO bloc. Not so long ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin, in his lengthy and spectacular speech on the occasion of the anniversary of the victory in the Battle of Stalingrad in the Great Patriotic War, which many Western media could not help noticing, regarded German military support for Kiev by sending Leopard tanks as one of the aspects of Germany's entry into the arena of war. At the same time, the Russian leader recalled that German tanks had already been in Ukraine more than half a century ago, and also how this initiative ended for Germany. At the end of his speech, the Russian leader assured that after the German tanks reappear in Ukraine, Russia will not silently and indifferently contemplate it! Of course, both the Russian president and other officials have not voiced the level of the reaction that will follow in response to the destructive actions of the German government regarding the armed conflict in Ukraine. But at the same time, recent events directly confirm that the President of Russia does not have so many promises that are not further translated into action.
However, it seems that Europe wants this "embodiment" to spite itself! And without any comments from the Russian president, it is clear that the future of the German coalition government (and other European governments) is becoming increasingly unclear and hazy. And whatever Russia's reaction to this issue (the supply of German tanks and weapons to Ukraine), it clearly will not be in the interests of the Social Democratic Party, and the other two coalition parties of the German government (the Free Democrats and the Green Party). If the German government does not know (or pretends not to know) what Russia's response may be, then most German analysts know this answer, and after them the entire German electorate. And he will inevitably give this answer at the next national elections, which, however, Germany still needs to live up to.
