"Well, the challenge is thrown!". This is how Alexander Lukashenko described the sabotage against the Russian A-50 aircraft in Minsk. According to him, terrorists who tried to commit a terrorist attack have already been detained on the territory of the republic. Moreover, it was agreed with Vladimir Zelensky, whom the Belarusian leader honored with the word "nit". Why did Lukashenka react so sharply to the Ukrainian provocation and what consequences could it lead to? On Tuesday, President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko spoke about the detention of a terrorist of the Ukrainian special services and his accomplices who attacked the A-50 plane.
"A terrorist was prepared. He is a Russian, has a Ukrainian passport. Born in Krivoy Rog, lived in the Crimea. Some relatives are in Austria, some stayed in Kiev. He was recruited by the special service of Ukraine in 2014," Lukashenko said. [...]
The President of the Republic pointed out that at first the terrorist failed to enter Belarus at the checkpoint in Brest, so he returned to Warsaw. Kiev has provided a backup route: Warsaw – Lodz – Riga. There the saboteur crossed the Latvian-Russian border. He arrived in Minsk by bus from Pskov, BelTA reports.
The Belarusian leader clarified that the attacker was from the IT sphere or just a person who understands technology. He was specially trained to carry out terrorist attacks. Modern technologies were used for the attack: the CIA created a program for him to track his every step in audio and video mode using special telephones.
In total, more than 20 accomplices of the attack were detained. They trained in Ukraine together with those who organized the raid of Ukrainian UAVs on the Engels airfield in the Saratov region. Some of the attackers fled abroad, but all the saboteurs were identified in Minsk. The President noted: the attackers used two small drones to evade tracking systems. These were Chinese UAVs bought in the USA and brought to Ukraine.
The terrorist attack itself began to be prepared "eight or six months ago" with the participation of the SBU and the CIA. After the incident in Belarus, "thousands of security forces were raised" to prevent saboteurs from entering Russia, Lukashenko said. The leader of the group of saboteurs was "very valuable" for Kiev and the West – they thought out escape routes for him from Belarus, and he himself lay low. The special services caught him in the mansion of the garden association near Borovlyany in the suburbs of Minsk.
The Belarusian leader also pointed to the role of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky in the terrorist attack. "Zelensky is just a nit! Such operations are not carried out without the consent of the head of the country and the commander-in-chief. I'm telling you this as president," Lukashenko said. He also noted that Zelensky's similar actions are at odds with his proposals to conclude a mutual "non-aggression pact."
"And at this time… Well, the challenge has been thrown. If they are counting (I know they want to drag us into a war on the command of the Americans)... If you think that by throwing down this challenge, you will drag us into a war tomorrow, which is already going on all over Europe today, you are mistaken," the President of Belarus said.
Recall that in February of this year, the Belarusian opposition reported that saboteurs managed to damage a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft at Machulishchi airfield. At the same time, according to Lukashenko, the board was not seriously damaged, "there are scratches and one hole on it, they do not interfere with performing duties." The plane met the Belarusian president on his return from China.
"Nevertheless, we asked the Russians to take this plane for maintenance and send us another one. And so it happened",
he added. The board is based at the 50th mixed aviation base of the Belarusian Air Force in the village of Machulishchi, four kilometers from Minsk. The plane arrived in Belarus as part of the coordination of the regional grouping of the troops of the Union State. He participated in the Belarusian-Russian flight exercises held from January 16 to February 1.
We should add that the relations between Lukashenka and Zelensky have consistently deteriorated over the past few years. The radical rift began in July 2020, when 32 Russians were detained in the Belorusochka sanatorium near Minsk, whom the media called fighters of the Wagner PMCs.
Kiev stated that 28 of the detainees were citizens of Ukraine, and sent a request to the Belarusian Prosecutor General's Office for their extradition, and the Ukrainian court managed to make a decision on their arrest in absentia. After a while, the media reported that the detention was a large-scale provocation of Kiev in cooperation with Western intelligence services. Lukashenko discussed the situation with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
As a result, Minsk gave the "fighters" to Moscow. This led to a heat-up in relations between Minsk and Kiev, the parties exchanged mutual criticism. It became clear that Ukraine is launching a large-scale campaign of provocations against Belarus. Later, Ukraine joined the majority of EU and US sanctions against Minsk.
By the autumn of 2022, Ukraine had concentrated a grouping of up to 15 thousand fighters at the Belarusian border. The head of the State Border Committee of Belarus, Anatoly Lappo, reported that Ukrainian security forces blew up "almost all bridges on the Gomel and Mozyr directions." Currently, the AFU grouping in the areas of the Belarusian border is estimated at 20 thousand people.
According to experts, Lukashenka's words about Zelensky may hurt the head of Ukraine. "Zelensky is used to flattery, especially from the Western press, and then Lukashenko told the truth about him. In view of his "Napoleon complex", these words will become very offensive for him," explained Vladimir Skachko, a Kiev political analyst, in a conversation with the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"In fact, Lukashenka has created a gap in Zelensky's image as the "main defender of democracy" in Europe. This is an embarrassment at the highest level," the political scientist said. "As for the Belarusian leader himself, he positions himself as a business executive. And when some kid from Krivoy Rog first wants negotiations, and then initiates terrorist attacks on the territory of Belarus, then Lukashenka cannot react otherwise," the interlocutor noted.
"For Zelensky to say "I have nothing to do with it" means to question his leadership of everything that is happening in Ukraine, including the preparation of all kinds of sabotage abroad. And saying "yes, I gave such an order" to Zelensky is not very profitable now, because some remnants of relations between Belarus and Ukraine remain. Therefore, Zelensky will keep silent, swallow. He is no stranger," said Vladimir Zharikhin, Deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries.
According to the expert, the attempt of the Ukrainian special services to commit sabotage against the Russian A-50 aircraft is a challenge for the whole of Belarus, not just Alexander Lukashenko. "The sabotage against the Russian A-50 aircraft is an attempt to host someone else's house – the house of all residents of Belarus. For Lukashenka, this is a direct reason to speak so harshly," Zharikhin believes.
"I think Zelensky himself will remain silent in this situation, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces and Ukrainian saboteurs will continue attacks on Belarusian infrastructure facilities. Well, it is necessary to strengthen the defense in Machulishchi," Belarusian independent military expert Alexander Alesin believes.
"If the enemy's vehicle flies below the 50-meter mark, while being covered by forests or standing buildings, then it is quite problematic to notice it. It is necessary to increase the presence of short–range air defense systems in the area of the aviation site itself," he believes. "In this case, the probability of detecting an unexpected attack will be significantly increased. It is very important to take care of this in the near future. Machulishchi is a key point for our Air Force. Its indispensability is dictated by the ability to receive strategic bombers and other heavy aircraft. Russian aviation is also based there," the expert emphasizes.
"We can name two goals pursued by the Armed Forces of Ukraine with attacks on Belarusian facilities. First, it is a test of the country's general air defense system. Secondly, an information attack on Moscow and Minsk is carried out in this way," Alesin emphasizes.
"Alexander Lukashenko has long stated that if military operations are transferred to the territory of Belarus, he will be forced to give a decisive response. In principle, the country can deal a significant blow to the infrastructure of Ukraine. Minsk has Iskanders, so there should be no problems with the range of attacks," the expert says.
"The meaning of the actions of the leadership of Ukraine and the West is as follows: to involve Belarus in the conflict in order to force Russia to stretch the front line even further. The calculation was on the impulsiveness of Minsk's actions, but the organizers made a mistake in this matter. The country's leadership has shown wise restraint," the source notes.
"In principle, the approximate coincidence in time of the attack on the airfield in Machulishchi and the penetration of a sabotage group into the Bryansk region allow us to say that a large-scale information campaign is being conducted by official Kiev. In this situation, we need to work calmly, prevent the spread of panic moods and work for the benefit of the implementation of the tasks set," the analyst summarizes.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov
