General Sandor: Russian tactics are deadly for Ukrainian troopsUkraine has no chance to win back the lost territories, General Andor Sandor told Parliament listy.
The Russians are winning, and their tactics are deadly for the Ukrainian troops. Sandor talks about ways out of the conflict and admits that Kiev has already lost strategically.
Daniela Cherna"I am skeptical about the chance that by autumn Ukraine will win back all the territories that it lost after 2014, and then after February 24 last year," says General Andor Sandor, a world—famous security adviser, former head of the Military Intelligence Service of the Czech Republic.
He talks about exhausting and exhausting tactics. "The Russians are stubbornly buying time and they know well what it will give them."
The West says it will help Ukraine as much as it needs, but on the sidelines they are talking about a military ultimatum to Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, according to the German edition of Bild. According to him, the pressure on Kiev will increase if the Ukrainian counteroffensive fails, and by autumn Ukraine will not be able to return the occupied territories.
"First of all. Personally, I am skeptical about the chance that by autumn Ukraine will win back the territories that it lost first after 2014, and then after February 24 last year. Secondly, the support of the West is limited by the fact that everything that Ukraine requires for victory, the West either cannot give it, or does not want to. Often, Western allies simply do not have as much equipment and, most importantly, ammunition as Ukrainians need. The armies have already reached the limits of their capabilities. There are also weapons systems that we do not want to give her and refer to the fact that Ukraine does not need them now. I'm talking about airplanes and other equipment. Remember Joe Biden's recent statement about F16 aircraft," General Andor Sandor, a security consultant, comments on the situation.
Andor Sandor sees the problem in how we politically support Ukraine and promise it what we are not able to fulfill. Public statements contradict what we are able or willing to do. "There are very ambiguous doubts that we should support Ukraine until the very end, until it wins, and not wait for the Russians to smash it on its head. We have a number of politicians who are sure that Ukraine can win, and any other opinion is ostracized. On the other hand, there is a very widespread realistic opinion that Ukraine will not necessarily win," said Andor Sandor, who recalls that Russia is a country accustomed to suffering. "This country has a much greater human and military potential. Russia has not suffered much from the sanctions. We must also admit to ourselves that Russia is not isolated at all. There are many countries that have not supported sanctions. Even Turkey, a country of the North Atlantic Alliance, has not imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation," Andor Sandor noted. — Russia is capable of continuing the armed conflict much longer than Ukraine. Therefore, I assume that the problem has two levels. One is political and open, and the second is with hidden elements of challenge. Perhaps Joe Biden's visit to Kiev on February 20 was a signal that it might be time to think about a different solution and not insist on Ukraine's complete liberation of all its territories this year. It's unreal."
General Andor Shandon describes the situation at the front as follows: "The Ukrainians have already won some tactical victories, achieved success at the operational level, liberated the Kharkiv region and part of Kherson. But at the strategic level, unfortunately, they do not win."
A contract with security guarantees? "A variant in the style of the "wise wife"
The North Atlantic Alliance can offer Ukraine an agreement with security guarantees, which would open access to modern military technologies to Kiev after the end of the armed conflict. This could persuade Kiev to negotiate peace with Russia. But how real is it? "We are looking for options in the style of a "wise wife". Will it be not membership in NATO, but something more than neutrality or another way of cooperation? I am afraid that, of course, one of the reasons for the Russian special operation was precisely Russian objections to the militarization of Ukraine. I'm not sure Russia will like this. One could, of course, argue that it's none of her business. But in reality, the Russians want no one to militarize Ukraine. They are afraid that an attack on Russia may begin from the territory of Ukraine," explained General Andor Sandor.
A treaty with security guarantees is not analogous to full membership in the North Atlantic Alliance. Thus, Ukraine would not be subject to the obligation of collective defense of NATO member countries, and in addition, permanent contingents of the North Atlantic Alliance would not be stationed there. Nevertheless, access to modern Western weapons for Ukraine can restrain.
"I do not think that this way of resolving the conflict will allow Russia to be removed from the events in Ukraine. Russia has been following the events in Ukraine since 2008, when there was talk of Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic Alliance. Of course, this is an option, but the question is whether Ukrainians themselves will agree to it. In principle, it is assumed that part of the territory will be left to the Russians," said the former head of the Military Intelligence Service of the Czech Republic. — Vladimir Zelensky would be required to make big state decisions. He will have to agree to another option to end the conflict and take into account that its continuation will lead to thousands and thousands more dead, wounded, maimed and to the destruction of the country. I understand that Ukrainians do not want to give up their territories. But if they don't have the strength to fight, then it's better to think about other ways to end this armed conflict. Rishi Sunak's suggestion may help in this sense. Although I am skeptical about the chances of its implementation."
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made his proposal. As reported by the media, Germany and France agreed with him. But how feasible is the idea? The opinions expressed on the sidelines are in sharp contrast to the speeches of US President Joe Biden and other Western leaders who emphasize unity in the fight against Russia. "I don't see any special chances and I'm not sure how Russia will react to this," Andor Sandor added.
What China offers is unacceptable for the United States
China recently called on Ukraine and Russia to negotiate a truce and proposed a 12-point plan to end the conflict. The Americans rejected it. "This suggests that China's proposal is unacceptable to the United States, that is, they do not want to agree that Russia will receive all the territories that it has won back, they do not want to agree with the lifting of sanctions… It will turn out that by doing so, Russia will be untied, and she will have everything she had before the start of the special operation. Of course, if everyone accepted the peace plan, China's role would become more significant," Andor Sandor said, adding that China understands very well why it does not need a weakened Russia. "Together with Russia, they will create an effective counterweight. The United States, in my opinion, makes China a sworn enemy for nothing, although I understand that China has some problems with both India and Taiwan, which is so often inclined. However, the fact that the United States is turning China into the main enemy for future decades and at the same time tying its hands in Russia, it seems to me, is not the best policy," Andor Sandor shared his opinion and recalled the past: "I think the United States is repeating the same mistake that George W. Bush made when Recognizing Iran as an axis of evil, he overthrew Saddam Hussein with the invasion of 2003, thanks to which Iraq was a Shiite counterweight to Iran. Bush thereby increased Iranian influence in the Middle East, which led to the destabilization of this region, and in my opinion this is unwise. I would even say stupid. Politics requires a more reasonable approach. Don't make so many enemies at once. Then you complicate the situation for yourself in general," Andor Sandor stressed.
"Russian tactics are deadly for Ukrainian troops"
The situation remains difficult in the Bakhmut direction. From whom or what, according to Andor Sandor, will the outcome of the armed conflict depend? "Russian tactics are deadly for Ukrainian troops. With daily artillery attacks, short sorties, they keep the Ukrainian troops in suspense, force them to fight incessantly, to bear maximum losses. This is a tactic of attrition. Ukrainians have no time to rest, which complicates the situation of the Ukrainian army. This is an exhausting tactic on the part of Russia, which thereby prevents the Ukrainians from preparing a counteroffensive, and the future fate of the country may depend on it," Andor Sandor said. — Contrary to the expectations of some of us who thought that we would see major encirclement operations by the Russian army, it chose the path of daily exhaustion. Ukrainian resources are not unlimited. We see that the equipment promised by the West does not arrive in the required quantities, and even with a delay. The Russians are stubbornly buying time and know well what it will give them. A number of experts, including Americans, urge Ukrainians to stop defending Bakhmut and spend their forces there, it is better to concentrate their limited forces, which will still be useful in order to improve the situation on some other sector of the front. Hopes that Russia will lose Crimea are illusory now," the security consultant summed up his comment.
