China is starting to create a giant satellite constellation – it is planned that it will consist of thousands of spacecraft. The purpose is declared quite peaceful – broadband Internet and communication for the whole world. However, there is no doubt that the devices will also have a military purpose. These devices may be able to help Russia as well.In 2015, the general public for the first time became aware of plans to create a satellite constellation Starlink to provide broadband Internet access.
At that time, both public and private "constellations" of spacecraft were already operating in space, but none of them had such a scale. SpaceX intended to create and launch more than 30,000 satellites in two groups.
From disbelief to reality The first was to include 4425 satellites of the Ku- and Ka-bands, and the second network was to consist of 7518 satellites and operate in the V-band.
However, after months, appetites grew, and in October 2019, SpaceX submitted an application to the US Federal Communications Commission for the placement of 30,000 second-generation Starlink satellites to work in orbits with heights from 328 to 614 kilometers.
At that moment, this number seemed almost unattainable to many specialists. At that time, a little more than 1,000 spacecraft were operating in orbit from all countries. And it was hard to believe that one company could do several times more than the rest of the world.
As a result, within the framework of the Starlink project, more than 3,556 satellites have already been launched since 2018, of which 3,271 are in orbit right now. In 2022 alone, SpaceX delivered more than 1,700 spacecraft into orbit.
It turned out that the Starlink project turned out to be very convenient not only for users living in an area where there is no normal Internet, but also for the military.
The ability to get connected anywhere in the shortest possible time, work from moving cars or military equipment, control drones. Taking into account the low orbit of Starlink vehicles, communication requires only a small terminal and a compact antenna compared to other satellite systems – smaller than a pizza box.
And now, against this background, China has announced the creation of its own space megagroup GW. Judging by his statements, he plans to take into account the experience and mistakes of Starlink. Why is the Celestial Empire doing this and what tasks will this cosmic "constellation" be engaged in?
Merging and enlarging
For the first time, the Chinese Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC) announced the creation of the grouping back in 2016. Then everything was much more modest, it was supposed to put only 300 spacecraft into polar orbit. The satellites were supposed to become a kind of harvesters, providing communication, geo-positioning, broadband Internet access and much more. More than 20 billion yuan was invested in the project, and the first 60 spacecraft were to be put into orbit in 2022. The full deployment of the network was expected by 2025, for which it was planned to create a factory capable of producing 300 spacecraft annually.
A year later, in 2017, the Chinese Aerospace Scientific and Industrial Corporation (CASIC) announced another similar space project for 156 vehicles. Already in 2018, both projects launched demonstrator satellites, and almost immediately their space appetites began to grow. A year later, CASIC announced that the space group would consist of 800 vehicles, but after that both projects seemed to be forgotten – no news, no launches.
In fact, the problem was not in the Chinese space corporations. Profound changes have begun in China's space policy as a whole, and both projects have been transformed without too much publicity in the press.
In 2020, a "New Infrastructure Plan" was announced in China, under which both projects to create large satellite groupings were merged together into a single GW megagroup. Now it was planned to launch 12,992 satellites in seven different orbits. The name GW is just an abbreviation of "State Network" in Chinese.
A few months later, China Satellite Network Group Co. was established to implement this project. Ltd ("Chinese Satellite Networks Group"). This organization, fully controlled by the Communist Party of China, has begun work on the implementation of plans for the deployment of a colossal satellite constellation consisting of two parts, Hongyan and Hongyun.
The process has started By the way, after hearing about the creation of such a large-scale megaproject, several Chinese commercial startups offering similar groupings immediately announced the termination of work in the same year.
Competing with GW in China is simply unrealistic. Naturally, the state will not allow commercial structures to manage such a project.
But in the production of spacecraft and ground terminals for the use of megagroup, Chinese startups have much more chances. This will allow you to start using the grouping more quickly and flexibly. The same SpaceX in the Starlink project has slowed down a lot at the stage of creating ground terminals, China's strategy will avoid this problem.
It is worth mentioning separately about the plans for launching GW spacecraft. Already in 2023, according to the plan, the first launch of the Chinese "heavy carrier" – the Changzheng-5B (CZ-5B) carrier rocket should take place. Prior to that, it was mainly used for launching large spacecraft – modules of the orbital station, a model of a new generation manned spacecraft and an interplanetary Mars mission.
Adapting this rocket for the cluster launch of multiple satellites of the GW project at once is a separate and non–trivial task. And most importantly, even if China is able to launch from 40 to 80 spacecraft in one launch, implementing a general plan to create a grouping of 13,000 satellites is a difficult task even for the PRC.
The implementation of the GW project will be the most important test of the Chinese space program. It will show in many ways how ready the People's Republic of China is for a possible role as the leader of world cosmonautics.
As always, one important question arises: given that GW is practically a Chinese military project, will Russia be able to participate in it somehow? At the stage of creation and output – most likely not. All the experience of previous work with China speaks for this. In addition, most of the roles are already distributed in the project, and the need to cope independently is one of the important conditions of the "cosmic" game for the championship.
Will China give Russia access and the opportunity to use the "State Network", as Ukraine is doing now with Starlink? That's more realistic. However, this will greatly depend on the success of GW and Russian-Chinese relations in the near future.
Mikhail Kotov
