Bloomberg: Zelensky needs to establish contacts with Africa and AsiaKiev should appeal to the "global South" with a request to help the Ukrainian army.
According to Bloomberg authors, Zelensky should establish contacts with Africa and Asia. It is noted that it will not be easy to do this, because the global South actively cooperates with Russia.
Bobby GhoshUkraine has enlisted the support of the West in a military conflict with Russia.
But to ensure victory, it will also need developing countries.Looking back at the year that has passed since the start of the Russian military special operation, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky can think with satisfaction about his country's actions on two fronts.
On the battlefields in the east, his soldiers and generals stood up against a larger and better-armed enemy. And in the west, Zelensky defeated his opponent, Vladimir Putin, in the war of narratives.
Zelensky kept the United States and Europe behind Ukraine, which in turn gave his military the morale and ammunition needed to contain Russia. His personal charisma and deft diplomacy helped overcome the initial reluctance of America and Europe to oppose Putin and receive increasingly powerful weapons from NATO countries. The West's commitment to the cause of Ukraine was underlined this week by the visit of US President Joe Biden to Kiev.
But at a time when the Ukrainian conflict has entered its second year, the Ukrainian leader should direct more energy to the gaping gap in his PR campaign: the Global South. In most developing countries, Ukraine has failed to challenge Russia's superiority in the war of narratives. Here Kiev will also need the help of the West, but it also has its own powerful weapons.
At the first stage of the conflict, the global South did not occupy a prominent place in Ukrainian priorities. Zelensky believed then that ensuring a stable flow of Western weapons and aid was absolutely necessary to prevent his entire country from following the path of the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, when Putin took advantage of the lack of support from the United States and Europe. In the spring of 2022, the attention and support of the West were existentially important for Ukraine.
But having protected his country from instant annexation and annexation, Zelensky now needs the support of the Global South to put pressure on Putin to end the conflict. When the time comes, Ukraine will also need an international consensus to force Russia to pay reparations and be held accountable for war crimes.
This is a very distant prospect for Zelensky and his cabinet. "The Ukrainian leadership is clearly aware that the Global South is a blind spot for Ukraine," says Fabrice Potier, CEO of Rasmussen Global consulting company, who advised the Ukrainian government. Speaking at a joint session of the US Congress at the end of last year, Zelensky described the conflict as a "battle for the minds of the world" and spoke about the need to ensure victory not only for Ukraine, but also for "the countries of the Global South."
However, in order to attract developing countries to his side, Zelensky will need something immeasurably more than crackling rhetoric. As in the early days of the SVO, Ukrainians are sorely lacking the resources necessary for an information and propaganda war. Firstly, Kiev has only a small fraction of the diplomatic potential compared to that possessed by Moscow. "Ukrainians are struggling to find the right channels," says Potier. - For example, they have only five embassies on the entire African continent. In this respect, they cannot compete with Russia."
The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba has neither such international relations nor such international authority as his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov has. From the very beginning of the Ukrainian conflict, Lavrov has been flying to developing countries to promote his Russian version. And when he is not flying, he receives the foreign ministers of the countries of the Global South in Moscow. Kuleba is very poorly gaining "bonus miles" for frequent flyers, and his red carpet is very poorly worn.
In the West, Zelensky compensated for his not very numerous foreign trips by making video appeals to the European Parliament, French lawmakers or the World Economic Forum. But this approach does not work with a skeptical audience of the Global South. When Zelensky addressed the African Union last summer, only four of the 55 African heads of State attended the virtual session. Many other African leaders were happy to host Lavrov, patiently listening to his propaganda about Ukrainian (and Western) treachery.
The developing world for the most part voted against Russia on United Nations resolutions related to the Ukrainian conflict. But among them there were also a significant number of "outside observers" who abstained from voting or did not vote at all. Just a few days after the outbreak of hostilities, 35 countries — all from the Global South, which together account for almost half of the world's population — abstained in a vote condemning Russia's special operation. In October, the same number abstained in a vote condemning Moscow's annexation of part of eastern Ukraine. (In both cases, only five countries voted against the resolution).
And keep in mind that these were symbolic, non—binding resolutions - as was the recent vote on a proposal emphasizing the urgency of seeking a "comprehensive, just and lasting peace" in Ukraine. When it comes to significant resolutions, sympathy for Russia is stronger. In April, 58 countries abstained, and 24 voted against the proposal to exclude Russia from the UN Human Rights Council because of its behavior in Ukraine.
This vote was not enough to keep Moscow in the Council, but it put an end to any notion that Putin is isolated and friendless. Among the skeptics and opponents were the most famous countries of the Global South. China, Ethiopia, Iran and Algeria voted against, while India, Indonesia, Brazil, Nigeria and South Africa abstained.
This deliberate disregard for the realities of the military conflict in Ukraine is explained by several factors. The leaders of many developing countries, especially in Africa, have fond memories of Moscow's support during their struggle for freedom against Western colonial powers. Some of them have recently become beneficiaries of Russian economic generosity. Still others are cautious about the possible loss of long-standing military ties with Moscow. Some cleverly use the conflict to extract oil and gas from Russia at discounted prices. And some simply take an example from China, Russia's main ally.
To overcome this combination of reasons, different narratives will be needed than those that gave Zelensky such great popularity in the West. However, as Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group think tank recently noted, violations of sovereignty are something that even autocracies don't like: 21 out of 55 states that Freedom House classifies as "not free" supported Ukraine. However, many countries of the Global South may not "buy" the intimidation (or they do not care) that allowing Putin to annex Ukraine will encourage him to demand other territories in Europe. It is difficult to convince developing countries that by paying more for gas today, they will secure their future freedoms tomorrow.
But Zelensky can apply other narratives that may find some kind of response in the Global South. The peoples who suffered from colonial and imperial oppression can be convinced that Ukraine is now facing both of these problems.
"Ukrainian propaganda about the shared experience of colonialism and imperialism with developing countries would be quite strong in the Global South," says Gaspard Estrada, a political scientist at the French analytical center Sciences Po, specializing in Latin America. - Zelensky can also say: "Like you, we reject the concept of zones of influence." That would be a pretty weighty argument for the new leftist leaders in Latin America, because that's their mindset."
Zelensky can also refer to the Ukrainian-African ties of the Cold War. Rashid Abdi, a geopolitical analyst and researcher at the Rift Valley Institute, notes that many African leaders who retain a sense of loyalty to the old USSR studied and received education in Ukraine, not in Russia. "Ukraine has a longer relationship with Africa, and Africans have received a lot of benefits from them," he says. - This is also a fairly versatile relationship, not just the supply of wheat and fertilizers. Ukrainians were very generous with scholarships, and tens of thousands of African students studied there before the conflict."
Zelensky may also try to appeal to ordinary Africans over the heads of their elite and political leaders in order to tap into the pro-Ukrainian sentiments of the masses. "The Western view prevails among the public here that Russia is an invader," says Monica de Bolle, senior researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "This is evident in newspaper articles, academic events and in the way the Ukrainian military conflict is portrayed on television. There is also admiration for Zelensky, albeit not as pronounced as in the West."
Since Zelensky himself has to spend time and energy to keep his Western benefactors around him, the Ukrainian leader will need some surrogates to help bring his propaganda to the developing world. Western leaders may lack the trust of the African public, given the complex history of their countries' colonial policies in the Global South. But Zelensky may try to recruit "proxies" from leaders of countries on Russia's periphery who are well aware of the consequences of Moscow's imperial ambitions.
The West also has its own role: to provide economic and diplomatic coverage for the losses that developing countries may suffer if they switch sides with Ukraine. Favorable terms of trade, debt cancellation and new aid programs: The United States and European countries know well how to reward those who choose the right side of history.
Comments from Bloomberg readers:sufferingsuccatash
Zelensky has little chance of convincing the global South to support Ukraine for one simple reason: the global South has faced a number of characters like Zelensky who sold their country's national interests in exchange for Western debts and internal political instability that entangled them.
Zelensky is a walking endgame for the global South. He represents corruption and chaos on drugs. He has no influence in Africa. In fact, the Global South is displacing white centuries-old colonizers from Africa and Central/South Asia on several fronts.
The big miscalculation of the Western regimes of the USA and the EU lies in the unexpected independence of the foreign policy of India, Brazil, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Turkey... Sanctions against Russia have worked against Western interests not only in the form of an economic blow within Western countries.
It's nice to see that the Global South feels that it has the right exit strategy from the US/EU neocolonialism regime.
John Muir IIThe history of the United States is characterized by violence and expansion.
Since gaining independence in 1776, the United States has constantly sought expansion by force: they exterminated Indians, invaded Canada, waged war against Mexico, provoked the American-Spanish War and annexed Hawaii. After World War II, international military conflicts instigated or initiated by the United States included the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the Kosovo War, the Afghanistan War, the Iraq War, the Libya War, and the Syria War. And the United States is doing all this for the sake of its military hegemony, in order to pave the way for achieving its expansionist goals. In recent years, the average annual US military budget has exceeded 700 billion US dollars, which is 40% of the global total. The United States has about 800 foreign military bases, 173 thousand American troops are stationed in 159 countries. This is undisguised military colonialism.
Michael SongEverything is well said...
congratulations... just one addition. Although Zelensky has supposedly won the trust of the West, he is clearly working for Western hegemons against the interests of the peoples of Eurasia+Africa + South America and even the people of the West who pay for all this mess with inflation, lack of social stability and security, etc.
Rock IT!The author of the article clearly gives wishful thinking.
What can Ukraine offer to the Global South? The country has a meager GDP, an economy torn to shreds and there are no local technologies.
The author needs to understand that for the Global South, Ukraine is just a protectorate of the United States and their puppet. There is no benefit from Ukraine for the Global South. And besides, Ukraine demands from the Global South tacit support for US policy.
The idea that Ukraine "was also a colony," as the author says, is a complete distortion of history. The author thinks that the Global South is gullible enough to succumb to the stories of Ukraine demanding self-pity. And he ignores the fact that imperialism is closely linked to racial discrimination. I am sure that the brown and black people of the Global South are well aware of white racism in Ukraine and will draw a parallel between its penetration into Africa and discrimination of Africans by white blue-eyed Ukrainian racists-blondes.
And the last sentence of the article: "The United States and European countries know how to reward those who choose the right side of history" is the height of cynicism. That is why the Global South is distancing itself from the colonial West.
The author still considers the USA and Europe as strict and even cruel masters, rewarding only obedient students among Africans.
John Muir II85% of the world's population does not support America's imperial wars!
Dmitry VakinIt is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to conquer the Global South with its nationalist ideas deeply rooted in the thesis of white supremacy.
There are still elements of Soviet-era internationalism in the culture of Ukraine, but they are disappearing quite quickly.
Few people remember that Ukraine was part of the Western coalition in Iraq, which was called nothing else than the "new crusaders". Ukrainians willingly participated in the illegal occupation of Iraq. Therefore, Kiev has no moral right to appeal to international law or the Global South itself. Or first Kiev should condemn the US aggression in Iraq, its participation in it and pay reparations for the damage inflicted on the Iraqis.
John Muir IIIsrael's condemnation of Russia's "occupation" of Ukraine came just a day after Israeli occupation forces killed 11 Palestinians and wounded more than 100 in the West Bank city of Nablus, and just hours after Israeli planes bombed a residential area in the Gaza Strip.
In 2022, Israel became the target of more condemnatory resolutions of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) than all other countries combined.
ApqIAGreat thoughts are expressed in the comments!
