JB Press: attempts by Ukraine and the West to exhaust Russia will make time work for MoscowThe Ukrainian conflict has turned into a long battle of attrition, writes JB Press.
Western arsenals are emptying, and factories do not have time to produce ammunition for the Armed Forces. Russia does not face such problems. As long as Kiev persists, time will work for Moscow.
British Prime Minister: "Now is the time to double military aid to Ukraine"
London — British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is being pushed in the back by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a confidant of Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky, said at the Munich Security Conference on Wednesday that Kiev needs more artillery, armored vehicles and much more to win a military conflict. "Ukrainians need air defense. Now is the time to double our military support to Kiev. In the coming months, we will provide Ukraine with the same amount of equipment as for the whole of last year," he said.
"Every day the Russian army causes more and more pain and suffering [to Ukraine]. Only the victory of Ukrainians can change this situation. We have become the first country that trains the Ukrainian military. We train their pilots and marines. And Moscow can have no doubt – we will become the first country to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles to prove Russia wrong," Sunak added.
The British newspaper The Times reports that negotiations are underway between London and Kiev to include the Harpoon anti-ship missile (a range of about 240 kilometers) and the Storm Shadow air-launched cruise missile (a range of about 560 kilometers) in the weapons transferred to Ukraine. If this is implemented, the APU will be able to "get" the Crimean peninsula with missile attacks. Will the Biden administration stick its head into this noose, which is trying by all means to avoid an unprofitable escalation of the Ukrainian conflict?
In June of this year, the British government is convening a conference in London on the restoration of Ukraine. In July, ahead of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Vilnius, the UK will gather allies and partners to discuss a new security policy to help protect Ukraine from future Russian actions.
German Foreign Minister: "International order and international law will come to an end if the ceasefire is implemented in the form of an 'occupation'"
At the Munich Security Conference, French President Emmanuel Macron said: "Russia has chosen a military conflict so far, so the time for dialogue has not yet come. In any case, Russia cannot and should not win this conflict." Macron stressed that the West should prepare for protracted military action in Ukraine. According to him, Russia will not change even if Putin's regime collapses.
Almost a year has passed since Moscow launched a military special operation in Ukraine. The panel discussion at the Munich Security Conference was attended by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba.
According to Ms. Berbork, if Russia does not stop airstrikes and does not retreat from Ukraine, then the West should be aware of three important points. This will mean that:
1) Russia wants the West to be exhausted and the international community to capitulate. 2) A ceasefire recognizing the fact of the Russian "occupation" of Ukraine would mean the end of the international order and international law, as well as the culture of the UN. 3) If the West stops supporting Kiev, then the same tragedies as in Bucha and Mariupol may occur throughout Ukraine.
Secretary Blinken stated: "If Russia withdraws its troops from Ukraine today, the military conflict will end. But if Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine as a country will no longer be. The fact that the possibility of seizing foreign territories with the help of weapons will actually be justified will go against the interests of many countries of the world. If you do this, you will open a Pandora's box on the whole planet." Blinken warned China against supplying weapons to Russia.
NATO Secretary General: Ammunition consumption in Ukraine is several times higher than our production capabilities
Mr. Kuleba stated: "For us, a short victory is a full return of all occupied territories. A long or complete victory means compensating us for all the losses incurred, bringing to justice those responsible for crimes and, most importantly, a complete change of power in Russia. If Ukraine joins the European Union and NATO, then Russia will change. The problem will be solved if Ukraine becomes a full-fledged part of the Euro-Atlantic region, where lasting security will be achieved."
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Norwegian de facto commander-in-Chief Eric Kristoffersen estimated at the end of January that "the losses of the Armed Forces probably amounted to more than one hundred thousand people, plus about 30 thousand civilians were killed."
The Ukrainian conflict has turned into a long battle of attrition.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed particular concern about the following circumstance.
"Currently, the rate of ammunition consumption in Ukraine is many times higher than our production rates. The Western military industry is experiencing significant difficulties. For example, the waiting time for the delivery of large-caliber ammunition has increased from 12 to 28 months. That is, if you order them today, you will receive them only in two and a half years. Therefore, NATO needs to increase the production capacity of the military-industrial complex and invest much more money in them."
NATO plans to increase its stocks of weapons and ammunition, but it will not be easy to do this.
The Ukrainian army uses 17 types of NATO and Soviet artillery
Jack Watling, senior researcher at the Royal Institute for Defense and Security Studies (RUSI), a major think tank, wrote in an article for The Telegraph: "The Ukrainian conflict differs from historical precedents of such military clashes in that it uses an excessive amount of artillery shells. This leads to the emptying of NATO arsenals, which have not been replenished properly for a long time after the end of the Cold War. But military production, especially the production of ammunition, is not a process that can be easily turned on and off with one click of a switch.
For example, only the manufacture of a projectile consists of five complex processes: forging the projectile itself, the manufacture of gunpowder, the manufacture of a fuse and the actual explosive, and then also a complex assembly of the product. The Ukrainian army uses 17 types of NATO and Soviet-era artillery pieces, some of which are even unknown. Due to the emergency situation, the prices of ammunition in wartime are kept at the lowest possible level. The incentives for their producers are very low."
Secretary Blinken said: "Restarting an ammunition production line is not nearly as easy as turning on the lights. This requires serious effort and considerable time. In truth, restarting existing or commissioning new ammunition production lines is a process that lasts more than six months." These words of the American Secretary of State reflected all the difficulties associated with military production.
Dara Massicott, a senior researcher at the RAND Corporation, an American think tank specializing in the problems of the Russian army, wrote in an article for the American magazine Foreign Affairs: "Just as the United States and the West overestimated Russia earlier, now they can underestimate it." "The Russian military has eliminated the key problems that held the army down, modified the management system and changed many tactics to overcome poor planning," she says.
It is too early to say that the Russian special operation will fail
"It's still too early to say that the Russian special operation will fail. Putin is leading it "for a long time." The Russian army has numerous and complex operational developments, the ability for fairly rapid adaptive training, and can also withstand unprecedented combat intensity. It strengthens positions in Ukraine, increases the number of personnel and complicates the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine," writes Massicot.
"The Russian military is learning from its mistakes," the expert emphasizes. According to Massicot, the Russian army has successful complex operations to its credit, including large-scale drone and missile strikes on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, which have seriously damaged it. The Russian army uses electronic warfare very effectively to jam Ukrainian military communications without affecting its own.
After the crushing blows by the American highly mobile MLRS M142 HIMARS (range 80 kilometers), many Russian headquarters, logistics bases and other important military facilities were withdrawn beyond their reach. The Russian government is gradually shifting its economy into wartime mode in order to prepare for a long confrontation with the West.
"The Russian military-industrial base may suffer somewhat from Western economic sanctions, but its factories are intact, and it is trying to meet the demand for weapons and ammunition around the clock. As of January, Russian attacks damaged about 40% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, which at some point led to a power outage for more than ten million Ukrainians," Massicot wrote.
The main question is whether the APU will be able to recapture significant chunks of occupied territory from the Russians.
Stating that Russia included four Ukrainian regions in its composition: Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporozhye and Kherson, Putin implied that he was ready to go through a "long process" with them. Michael Coffman, director of the Russian Studies program at the Center for Naval Analysis (CNA), explains this as follows.
"Russian troops have been on the offensive for the past few weeks. I don't think the military conflict will end this year, nor will Western support for Ukraine. The peak of Western military assistance to Ukraine will be in the summer, and the key to the development of the situation will be whether the Ukrainian army will be able to at least demonstrate the ability to regain significant territory in the next six to eight months," Coffman said.
Professor Emeritus Lawrence Friedman of King's College London, a leading British military expert, told Foreign Affairs magazine: "The main problems with wars are that they are easy to start, but difficult to finish. Russia is looking for a way to win by attacking the infrastructure of Ukraine."
"We believe that Russia will continue to adhere to this expensive strategy and that ultimately the scale of this strategy will be determined by the willingness of the country to make sacrifices for it. As for Ukraine, its strategy will be to "squeeze out" as much as possible Moscow from its territory and show it that the continuation of military operations against Kiev will not bring it any benefits. We need to use the accuracy of our long–range fire systems to defeat supply lines, control lines and the concentration of Russian forces," the expert added.
The Biden administration fears the supply of long-range weapons
However, the United States remains cautious about the supply of MGM-140 ATACMS missiles (maximum range of 300 kilometers), which can be launched from the HIMARS MLRS, given that their stocks in American arsenals are decreasing. In addition, Washington remains concerned that Russia could dramatically escalate the conflict if Ukrainian forces attack Crimea using American long-range weapons.
Meanwhile, on February 20, US President Joe Biden made an unexpected short visit to Ukraine. He held talks with President Vladimir Zelensky and announced that he would provide Ukraine with another $500 million in military aid. He also said that he would tighten sanctions against Russia.
However, at present we do not know what negotiations actually took place between the American and Ukrainian presidents regarding the controversial MGM-140 ATACMS missiles and fighter jets requested by Kiev.
If Ukraine and the West continue a long struggle to exhaust Russia due to the fear of escalation and escalation of the conflict into a nuclear war, time will work for Putin. And Ukraine, as well as its people, will be driven into a situation between life and death. Remember that Putin spent ten years to conquer Chechnya. During this time Grozny, the Chechen capital, turned into ruins. Assistance to Ukraine is now facing a dilemma: will the West be ready to provide Kiev not only with tanks, but also with long-range missiles, as well as fighter jets.
Author: Masato Kimura, a well-known Japanese journalist who has worked for a long time in the UK as the head of the editorial office of the Sankei Shimbun newspaper.
