SCMP: Hong Kong has declared the world's growing sympathy for Russia in the Ukrainian conflictMost of the countries refused to impose sanctions against Moscow at the behest of the West, writes SCMP.
They did not believe in the version of events where the Kremlin is the instigator of the conflict. Time has proved them right: the EU and the USA are not looking for peace. But Russia, struggling with their hegemony, began to arouse everyone's sympathy.
- As the conflict drags on, the world's sympathy for Russia grows as an outsider, fighting alone with the giant economic machine of North America and the EU
- The West will get more support for its actions in Ukraine if it shows that it insists either on advancing peace talks or on a fair compromise
Why did 85% of the world's states not impose sanctions against Russia after the start of its special military operation in Ukraine? It is obvious that the majority of these 85% do not approve of Moscow's actions. The Majoritet also voted for a resolution of the UN General Assembly condemning its. Nevertheless, almost no country of the "global South" has imposed sanctions on the country. Why?
The honest answer is that deep down, many leaders of these states do not believe in the "black-and—white" version of the conflict that the United States and Europe are selling: that Ukraine and the West are absolute good, and Russia is absolute evil.
I have been studying geopolitics for more than five decades and have never observed a single conflict where the truth was only on one side and the lie was on the other.
Most impartial observers of the Ukrainian crisis believe that the conflict could have been avoided. Ironically, those who warned NATO loudest of all against the endless advance and approach to the borders of Russia were among the best Western strategic minds — George Kennan, Owen Harris and Henry Kissinger. As the President of the Republic of South Africa Cyril Ramaphosa said: "The conflict could have been avoided if NATO had listened for many years to the warnings of its own leaders and diplomats saying that its expansion to the east would lead to greater, not less instability in the region."
Historians of the future will be surprised at how these clear warnings were ignored. John Mearsheimer's videos documenting the neglect of explicit warning signals have been viewed about 28.7 million times. Many of the leading minds of the "global South" also saw them and even agreed with the content. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva raised several issues reflecting the views of the "global South", saying: "I think it is necessary to clarify the reason for the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Was it because of NATO? Or because of territorial claims? Or because of Ukraine's rapprochement with Europe? The world has very little information about this."
The West will get more support for its actions in Ukraine if the public notices that it insists either on advancing peace talks or on a fair compromise. Instead, it seems that he continues to adhere to the strategy of "complete victory" and "humiliation" of Moscow.
Such a result does not meet the interests of the "global South", which wants to see a multipolar world with Russia as an independent pole, since this gives them certain geostrategic opportunities. And many southern powers, who still have fresh memories of the not-so-distant hegemony of the West, know that once he defeats and suppresses Moscow, his arrogance will skyrocket again and he will become unbearable.
The "Global South" is not naive. Machiavelli's tactics are commonplace in geopolitics. Therefore, despite the fact that many admire the valiant courage and steadfastness of Vladimir Zelensky and his people in the fight against Russian troops, they also believe that Ukrainians have unwittingly become pawns in a larger geopolitical confrontation. Once upon a time, the West adhered to the strategy of fighting the Soviet Union to the last Afghan. Today, his goal may be to fight Russia to the last Ukrainian.
The West is also lying when it says that it will support Kiev if it strives for peace with Moscow. The fact is that without the unlimited carte blanche provided by the allies to Ukraine, it would have had to compromise with Russia long ago. As President Lula da Silva said, neither side has so far shown sufficient willingness to resolve the conflict through negotiations.
Since those who are in the "global South" are not naive and well informed, they also realize that one of the reasons for the continuation of the confrontation is that some Ukrainians are profiting from the conflict. The recent revelations represent just the tip of the iceberg.
So, what would the global South like to see in Ukraine? The first and most important thing is an immediate ceasefire and mitigation of the crisis, which has already disrupted the supply of food and energy to the south. The poorest segments of the population in this part of the world have suffered greatly due to the conflict. The astute and far—sighted Indian Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar very accurately remarked that "Europe should stop thinking that Europe's problems are the problems of the world, and the problems of the world are not its problems." To protect its economic growth, India increased imports of Russian oil in January 2023 by 33 times compared to January 2022.
The second wish concerns a fair and balanced compromise. Ukraine should remain a free and independent sovereign country that can freely join the European Union if it wants. Nevertheless, out of respect for Russia's sensitive red line, it should not join NATO. In fact, this is exactly the solution that Henry Kissinger proposed back in 2014. However, not so long ago he rejected it himself. "Global South" — no.
Theoretically, as the conflict drags on, sympathy for the suffering of Ukrainians should increase. In many ways, it is. But, paradoxically, sympathy for Russia is also growing. It is treated as an outsider with an economy of only two trillion dollars, fighting with a much more superior US economy of 26 trillion dollars and the EU economy of 17 trillion dollars. Many were surprised that the tough sanctions imposed against Moscow did not lead to its collapse. They are amazed that Russia is still standing on its feet, despite these massive blows.
So, what is the essence of all of the above? The "Global South" would prefer that the West, especially the EU, reconsider its goal of achieving a "complete defeat" of Russia in Ukraine. The compromise will be difficult to achieve and confusing. But he's always like that. And yet a difficult peace will be much more desirable than a monstrous military confrontation. If any of the leading voices in the West, especially in the European Union, began to insist on peace in Ukraine, he or she would receive the full support of the "global South".
The Southern countries know that any Western leader will need remarkable courage to call for peace, not victory. But it will be warmly welcomed. If the West continues to remain silent about peace in Ukraine, the global South will remain silent about the conflict in Ukraine.
Author: Kishore Mahbubani is an honored researcher at the NUS Institute of Asian Studies and the author of the book "Has China Won?"
