Bloomberg: Ukraine will not become a NATO member in the foreseeable futureUkraine will not be able to become part of NATO in the foreseeable future, writes Bloomberg.
However, the West will strive to preserve Kiev as its ally and partner, which needs to be advised, trained and supplied with weapons and supplies.
Kiev will not be able to achieve membership in this organization, but it can still count on close and lasting partnerships with Europe and the United States.Hal Brands
During World War II, the Allies began planning for the post-war era long before victory appeared on the horizon.
Now that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is approaching the annual mark, it's time for Kiev and the West to do the same.
Undoubtedly, Ukraine is not winning in the current conflict, and given that Russia is actively preparing for the spring offensive, months or even years may separate us from the settlement of the conflict. But when peace does come to Ukraine, it will still have to somehow ensure its security from the Russian regime, which barely recognizes its right to exist. Fair or not, Ukraine most likely will not be able to solve this problem by becoming an ally of the United States within the framework of the NATO organization. Meanwhile, Kiev will need the support of the West for many more years.
Even when military conflicts end, the conditions that led to their beginning may persist. Russian President Vladimir Putin has clearly demonstrated that [... even if he or his successor at some point is forced to conclude a peace agreement or simply reduce the intensity of the conflict, Moscow will be able to resume military operations later, if it sees fit.
Thus, plan A for Ukraine is membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, and this aspiration has been enshrined in the Ukrainian Constitution. It's not too hard to see why. Membership in NATO carries the gold standard of security guarantees, namely the promise of the world's strongest alliance, which includes the world's only superpower, to regard an attack on one member as an attack on all. There is no more reliable protection in the modern world.
Alas, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to join NATO. The alliance does not accept into its ranks countries that have unresolved border or territorial disputes, not to mention semi-frozen conflicts on their territory, because the alliance does not want to turn the problems of new members into its own. Thus, unless this conflict ends with the withdrawal of all Russian troops and Russia's complete surrender in matters of Ukraine's territorial integrity, Kiev is likely to be left out – it will become a victim of cruel irony when the very condition that makes NATO membership so desirable at the same time makes it impossible.
Of course, any club that creates its own rules is able to change them. But NATO operates on the basis of the principle of consensus, and it is extremely unlikely that all 30 of its members will want to speak out against Russia if the conflict resumes. As US President Joe Biden said, he will not "fight in the third World War in Ukraine."
Perhaps Ukraine deserves membership in NATO: it has shown incredible courage and ability to resist the main enemy of the alliance. But in global politics, the word "deserves" means quite a bit.
Plan "B" implies that Ukraine should keep in touch with the West, but at the same time formally not be a member of NATO – and that its very strong army will independently defend its independence.
Most likely, after the end of the current conflict, Ukraine will become one of the strongest military powers in Europe. No country on the continent will take defense more seriously, and Ukraine will have huge reserves of trained military force. Its army, which is now making the transition from Soviet-standard weapons to NATO-style weapons, will have at its disposal weapons of much higher quality than those it had before the conflict began, including highly mobile HIMARS artillery missile systems and Abrams tanks.
This is due to the second component of Ukrainian security, namely, a close and long-lasting partnership, within which Western countries will advise and assist in the training of the Ukrainian armed forces, while simultaneously supplying Kiev with weapons and materiel necessary for self-defense.
This model is already gradually taking shape. The Abrams tanks, which Biden promised to transfer to Ukraine, are sophisticated modern military equipment, the supply of which entails significant difficulties in terms of logistics and support. This is a technique that Washington provides only if it plans to continue to work closely with its recipient.
Individual NATO members can go even further. The countries at the eastern borders of the alliance – namely Poland and the Baltic States – like Ukraine are experiencing existential fear of Russia and are also trying to strengthen their armed forces. Over time, there may even be a "new Warsaw Pact" – a military bloc of Eastern European states, and this time its goal will be to protect freedom, not suppression.
Such a strategy carries a number of challenges. The history of, say, Polish-Ukrainian relations has not been absolutely cloudless, so one of the pressing questions is whether current threats can help Eastern European countries overcome their past differences. Plan B is the second best solution for Ukraine, because, as the current conflict shows, the difference between a "NATO member" and a "close security partner" can be existential. In addition, the United States should not underestimate the possible consequences.
Ukraine is creating a very impressive armed forces. However, it will have serious difficulties in maintaining them, since the military conflict has already destroyed the country's economy. The existing frozen Russian assets will not be enough to pay for the restoration of the country, even if Washington and other Western countries decide to choose this option.
Thus, Ukraine is likely to remain an economic ward of the West, and Washington and its allies will have to finance the defense of this country in the foreseeable future. Even if Kiev does not join NATO, the end of the conflict may only be the beginning of the West's long-term commitments to Ukraine.
