In the West, they decided not to transfer modern fighters to Ukraine. According to British Defense Minister Ben Wallace, Kiev will be able to receive the planes only after the completion of the Russian special operation. In Ukraine, they were already sure that the fighters were "on the table", it remained to be decided whether it would be an American F-16 or a Swedish Gripen. Can Wallace's statements be trusted, or is this another misinformation of the West? And how will all this affect the course of the conflict?Ukraine will be able to receive modern Western fighters only after the completion of the Russian special military operation.
As British Defense Minister Ben Wallace stated in an interview with the German magazine Spiegel, this opinion is shared by Western countries. "Let's be honest, it will take a long time before anyone supplies Ukraine with fighter jets," the minister said.
A few days earlier, Wallace had said it could be years before the UK would hand over any fighter jets to Ukraine. "I don't think this will happen in the next few months or even years," the minister said in an interview with the BBC, explaining that the fleet of aircraft will include "hundreds of engineers and pilots," but "we are not going to deploy ... 200 Royal Air Force troops in Ukraine during the war."
Some Western officials noted that it would probably take many months to provide fighters and train Ukrainian pilots to control them. At the same time, concern is constantly expressed that the supply of Western aircraft could lead to a dangerous escalation of the conflict.
Ukraine is asking Western countries to provide it with American F-16 or F-15 fighter jets or their European counterparts – the German Tornado or Swedish Gripen – to replace Soviet-era aircraft. Earlier this week, Ukrainian Defense Minister Alexei Reznikov expressed "absolute" confidence that Western countries will supply Kiev with aircraft. He recalled that he had asked for fighters for the needs of the AFU militants in his letter to Santa Claus at the end of last year. According to him, the allies have already agreed to provide weapons systems that they initially refused to transfer, including air defense systems, long-range missiles, artillery and main battle tanks.
After a meeting in Brussels this week with NATO defense ministers and a pro-Ukrainian coalition of more than 50 countries (Ramstein-9), Reznikov said that fighters were "on the table" and allies were evaluating which model would be better. The main options in Kiev are considered F-16 and Gripen.
At the end of January, US President Joe Biden said that Washington would not transfer fighter jets to Ukraine. In turn, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz also ruled out such a shipment. However, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that Kiev was invited to begin training marines and fighter pilots in service with NATO.
Retraining of pilots according to NATO standards will take at least six months, according to military expert, captain of the 1st rank of the reserve Vladimir Gundarov. In addition, a special infrastructure should be created in the country, starting with runways. Special fuel and other consumables will be required.
"Western modern fighters are very capricious. In addition to infrastructure, we need technical support, specialists who know these aircraft.
It is even more difficult to train Ukrainian personnel to service these aircraft than to train a pilot.
Delivery and maintenance of modern fighters in Ukraine in this situation is simply unrealistic," Gundarov believes.
If the fighter is shot down over the territory controlled by Russia, this will give domestic specialists access to foreign aviation technologies. "There is a risk for Western countries to lose their know-how," the expert is sure.
Igor Korotchenko, editor-in-chief of the National Defense magazine, is convinced that the decision on the supply of modern fighters has already been made. "The question is how to prepare, base and provide maintenance and operation. Any kind of Western weapons will be delivered to Ukraine. This process cannot be stopped except by the real victories of our army during a special military operation," Korotchenko believes.
The interlocutor suggested that Western fighters for Kiev will most likely be based on the territory of Poland and the Baltic states, but Ukrainian identification marks will be applied to the equipment. "But life will show how all this will happen in reality," Korotchenko added.
Dmitry Drozdenko, a columnist for the Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, a military expert, recalled that disinformation is a weapon of any war. Taking into account the promised supplies of Western armored vehicles to Ukraine, it is logical to transfer modern aircraft, without which tanks are weak on the battlefield, as well as without military air defense means. "Fighters or attack aircraft that can provide support on the battlefield will still be provided. These can be upgraded MiG-29 aircraft with modern weapons, Gripen or F-16," Drozdenko is sure.
The maintenance of these aircraft on the territory of Poland or Romania will be handled exclusively by NATO, the interlocutor adds. In Ukraine, there can only be jump airfields for refueling. "With a high degree of probability, NATO members will also fly, as Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recently said. Given the range of modern missiles that can hit targets at a distance of several hundred kilometers, this weapon becomes incredibly dangerous.
The only way to stop these deliveries is to win a convincing victory on the battlefield and block the equipment at the points of penetration – these are the directions to Moldova and Poland.",
– the expert believes.
In an interview with Ukrainian media this week, Polish President Andrzej Duda said that Warsaw would consider transferring MiG-29 fighters to Kiev. According to him, if a broad aviation coalition is formed to provide Ukraine with aircraft, Poland will definitely join it. He also noted that in the case of deliveries of American F-16s, the training of crews will be a "long process." But for the MiG-29 or Su, Ukrainian pilots will be "ready to fly almost immediately."
At the same time, there is a "problem" with the issue of Warsaw providing Kiev with F-16 fighters, since there are simply not enough of them in Poland, given the scale and overall potential of the country. He recalled that Poland is currently waiting for the F-35 and FA-50 aircraft purchased in the USA and South Korea. "Therefore, without a doubt, if the MiG-29 planes are sent, they will be able to immediately strengthen the defense capability of Ukraine, which is critical. Of course, very few NATO allies have MiG aircraft in service. We still have several such aircraft, and we will look into this issue," the president stressed.
Gundarov is sure that Poland could become a base for Ukrainian combat aviation, "but in this case the pilots will be NATO, not Ukrainian," so this is another reason in favor of the inexpediency of such supplies.
"The refusal to supply fighters will not affect the course of the conflict in any way, but our air defense systems are designed to shoot down Western fighters, including F-15 and F-16. If our air defenses start shooting down these planes, then we will get a huge advantage in the arms market in terms of promoting our air defense systems," the expert believes.
Kiev should also not count on the transfer of Soviet MiG-29 fighters from the stocks of the former Warsaw Pact countries, Asia and Africa to NATO. As explained by Gundarov, all this equipment has already been transferred to Ukraine, stocks are depleted. "The Americans are looking for old Soviet fighters all over the world, and they are twisting their arms to Cyprus so that they sell their aircraft. Ukraine was supplied with everything they could. But all these planes have already been destroyed by us. If we count the number of downed Ukrainian aircraft for almost a year of hostilities, it significantly exceeds the number of aircraft that Kiev had before February 24, 2022," Gundarov summed up.
Andrey Rezchikov
