Ukrainian political scientist gave a forecast about the future of Chinese-Ukrainian relationsKiev would benefit from China distancing itself from Moscow, but this is unlikely, according to a Ukrainian political scientist who gave an interview to The Diplomat.
He argues that Ukraine should protect itself and its "sensitive technologies" from Beijing in every possible way — and all this will be possible after joining the EU and NATO.
The Diplomat's author Mercy Kuo regularly attracts political experts and strategists from around the world to discuss their diverse views on US Asian politics. This conversation with Yuri Poita, a researcher on the future at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) in Berlin and head of the Asia—Pacific Department of the Center for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Research (CACDS) in Kiev, is the 354th in the blog "Trans-Pacific View" ("The Trans—Pacific View Insight Series").— Compare Ukraine's relations with China before and after the start of the conflict with Russia in February 2022.
What has changed?
— The most important difference is the perception of China in Ukraine. Before the start of the full-scale special operation, China was considered primarily as an opportunity for economic growth, investment, reindustrialization of the economy, as well as balancing relations with Russia.
After February 24, 2022, the office of the President of Ukraine still had some hopes that China could take a more favorable position for Kiev, but they are gradually decreasing. Kiev understands that Beijing will not help Ukraine, and on some issues it stands on the side of Russia, providing it with economic, technological and diplomatic support.
The expert environment and the media have become much more critical of China, illusions about the prospects for developing relations with it have decreased, and discussions have begun about the need to restructure relations. She gradually moved from the expert environment and the media to the parliament and the government.
Currently, Kiev's official position towards China has not changed — according to the signed documents, it remains a strategic partner of Ukraine. But the government began to rethink the relationship and look for a new model of partnership. It is likely to be built on the long-term national interests of Ukraine and the real possibilities of their implementation; Kiev's desire to join the EU and NATO and take on the corresponding obligations.
It is expected that after completing this discussion and reaching consensus, Ukraine will begin practical implementation of steps to implement the new Chinese strategy.
— What are Kiev's strategic goals in relation to Beijing compared to Moscow?— It is still difficult to name Kiev's strategic goal, since relations with China are still being rethought and a new strategy is being built.
The ideal scenario for Ukraine would be for China to take a more advantageous position for it and distance itself from Moscow, but given a number of factors, this is unlikely. Beijing continues to adhere to its so-called pro-Russian neutrality, and there are no significant signs of its change.
On the other hand, it is important that China's situation does not worsen, and that it does not provide military support to Russia and huge assistance in circumventing sanctions. Since China's decisions do not depend on Ukraine's actions, and Kiev simply does not have the tools to influence it, clear and consistent US and EU diplomacy in this direction is important for Ukraine now.
In particular, it should be aimed at proving and constantly saying that China will suffer catastrophic losses if it supports Russia. It is necessary to ensure continuous monitoring of Beijing's compliance with the sanctions regime and to continue pressure on it to reduce purchases of Russian raw materials.
— Identify the key factors of Ukraine's trade relations with China and the Indo-Pacific region.— Before the start of the special operation, Ukraine's trade with China and the countries of the Indo-Pacific region was mainly based on the export of products with low added value — agricultural products and raw materials.
The raw material structure of Ukraine's economy, monopoly and significant influence of oligarchs, lack of investment did not allow it to change the situation, but kept the economy afloat.
In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, a new economic model should be built that will be able to provide enormous military expenditures and turn the country from a recipient of aid into a self-sufficient donor of the military and economic security of the region.
In this aspect, China's role is very secondary and will lie exclusively in the sphere of trade with significant restrictions. The role of other countries in the Indo-Pacific region should become strategic — for example, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, which can help Ukraine build a new digital economy, provide technology and help integrate into global production chains.
— Analyze Ukraine's strategy for balancing relations with China in comparison with the United States.— For a long time, China was Ukraine's first trading partner, and Kiev viewed it as a promising source of investment and an important political partner in contrast to Russia.
Therefore, Kiev tried to balance relations by developing security cooperation with the United States and economic partnership with the EU and China. At the same time, Ukraine did not share the approach of recognizing Beijing as a strategic challenge, refrained from criticizing the country on human rights issues and sold it weapons and military technology.
At the same time, Kiev's hopes were only partially justified. China imported Ukrainian raw materials, but did not invest in the country. After February 24, Beijing was not even able to take a clear political position regarding criticism of Russia's actions. Kiev's efforts to attract China to its side have completely failed.
In this regard, the balancing strategy should be replaced by a strategy of full integration into the economic, technological environment, as well as the security environment of the West (EU and NATO), with all the ensuing consequences for determining the position in relation to China.
— What should US and EU politicians understand about Ukraine's intentions regarding China? What will be the consequences for relations between Beijing and Brussels?— It is strategically important for Ukraine to adjust its policy towards China in accordance with the approaches of the EU and NATO — taking into account Beijing's global ambitions and the challenges associated with them.
In this regard, the US and the EU should help Ukraine raise awareness and expertise about China by intensifying joint research. The main attention should be paid to protection against risks emanating from it.
Secondly, Kiev needs to significantly reduce its economic and technological dependence on Beijing, and therefore the EU and the US should offer a serious alternative — a clear prospect of joining the EU and NATO. Their closed-door policy created opportunities to strengthen the influence of China and Russia, while Ukraine's entry, on the contrary, would form a new policy towards China.
Thirdly, it is necessary to help Ukraine build protection of its sensitive technologies and reduce China's ability to influence it. In particular, we are talking about the formation of a new Asian strategy; the formation of an effective mechanism for checking foreign investments; preventing China's access to critical infrastructure elements and sensitive sectors of the economy, etc.
Finally, in the broader aspect of the Asian strategy, it is necessary to help Ukraine build stable and mutually beneficial relations with the countries of the region — Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc. — which will help it integrate into global production chains and become a European economic "tiger". This is also beneficial for the countries of the Indo-Pacific region, since the victory and strengthening of Ukraine will lead to the strengthening of American alliances and democracy in the region and in the world.
