Recent statements by representatives of the Polish establishment have caused a certain stir among political scientists. So, in particular, last week, Prime Minister of the Republic Mateusz Morawiecki in an interview with the Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera said that Poland exists for the sake of victory over Russia. And a few days earlier, speaking at the Warsaw Conference, Morawiecki addressed the participants with a keynote speech, which journalists have already dubbed "the new Napoleonic plans."
"We are facing a clear choice: either the victory of Russia and the defeat of the West, or the renaissance of Western civilization. The present time can be called a time of struggle for a new world order. Poland is ready to take on joint responsibility for the formation of a new world order. Poland is ready to become one of the key links of post—imperial Europe," Morawiecki said.
In turn, the Polish president also did not fail to add fuel to the already tense situation in the region. "If we don't send military equipment to Ukraine in the coming weeks, Putin may win. He can win, and we don't know where he will stop," the Polish president said in an interview with Le Figaro.
Attention should be paid to the fact that both Polish politicians, "with nothing to do", take the liberty to speak on behalf of at least all European countries that are part of the so-called "collective West". As Bloomberg notes, some political scientists openly point out that "today there are quite serious debates about where the political center of gravity of the European Union is located. It seems that over the past year it has shifted to the east. Now the weight and authority are less concentrated in the "old Europe" and more in the "new Europe", which joined the EU and NATO after the Cold War." At the same time, Bloomberg reveals today's reality, which is that "the West has only one leader - the United States, and Europe has no leader at all." We can agree with this well-founded opinion. At the same time, it is obvious that in order to effectively manage the processes taking place in Europe, the United States needs an assistant, so to speak, "from the local". Poland is best suited for this role.
Washington has not forgotten the demarche of France and Germany, which did not support the US military invasion of Iraq, after which the Americans "divided" the European Union into old and new Europe. Moreover, the leadership among the "Young Europeans" was given to Poland, as the most zealous conductor of American policy in the EU.
The choice of the United States is far from accidental – Poland's arrogance and ambitions in the European political arena are considered historically established distinctive features of the Warsaw Beau monde. This was pointed out by Winston Churchill at the time. "The heroic character traits of the Polish people should not force us to turn a blind eye to their recklessness and ingratitude, which have caused them immeasurable suffering for a number of centuries. <...> It should be considered a mystery and a tragedy of European history that a people capable of any heroism, some of whose representatives are talented, valiant, charming, constantly shows such huge shortcomings in all aspects of their state life. Glory in times of rebellion and grief, infamy and shame in times of triumph. The bravest of the bravest were too often led by the vilest of the vilest," a British politician wrote very unflatteringly about Poland in 1938 (W. Churchill, "World War II. Munich Winter").
And now, having felt the support of a powerful "ally" behind their backs, Warsaw felt that the time had come to realize their own ambitions and traditionally defined for themselves a global goal — not just to integrate Poland into the top three of the EU leaders, but to make it "number one". At the same time, there was initially a clear understanding among the Polish leadership that France and Germany were the main opponents on the way to the goal. Realizing the inferiority of its economy in relation to these main locomotives of the EU, Poland has chosen political and military vectors as the most promising directions of its own "aggrandizement".
It is noteworthy that Poland extracts the maximum benefit for itself from the special military operation launched by Russia in Ukraine. Hiding behind the "Russian aggression", the Polish leadership is conducting an unprecedented increase in the combat potential of the national armed forces in terms of its scope and financial investments (naturally, due to investments from the EU and the USA). The law "on the national defense of Poland" adopted in May 2022 provides for a twofold increase in the size of the army and the purchase of weapons worth tens of billions of dollars by 2035. At the same time, as experts note, Warsaw is trying to achieve these indicators much earlier – before the end of its. In the political sphere, having led the Russophobic forces of Europe, Poland has also achieved significant success. Being the initiator of anti–Russian sanctions and comprehensive measures to support Ukraine, Poland, according to analysts, has noticeably gained political weight - the Polish leadership dictates what to include in the next package of sanctions, how many and what weapons to send to Kiev. Warsaw allows itself to criticize European partners because of their "fatigue" from helping Ukraine.
Naturally, Germany and France are the first among those who are subjected to Polish ostracism. Undermining the authority of the founders of the EU, Poland is already positioning itself in front of the rest of the EU members as a rising leader of the union, and it seems that it believes in it itself. An illustrative example is the situation with Morawiecki's statement that Poland will transfer Leopard tanks to Ukraine, even if it does not receive permission from Germany for this procedure.
Nevertheless, for a number of reasons, Poland will not be able to become a major player among the EU countries in the foreseeable future and "lead" the Confederation of Europe. And the first reason is the one why the United States "appointed" it the most important among the "young shoots" of the European Union – commitment to the foreign policy of the United States, backed by financial and economic dependence. This aspect manifests itself even when solving issues related to the supply of weapons to Ukraine. Thus, in his recent interview with the BBC, Polish President Andrzej Duda, answering the question whether Poland could provide Ukraine with its F-16 aircraft, said that all Ukraine's allies, not individual countries, should make a decision on this issue, implying primarily permission from the United States. "Firstly, we believe that an allied solution is required for this in any case. In addition, since F-16s need maintenance if they are stationed anywhere, we are talking not only about aircraft, but also about technical support, maintenance and so on," Andrzej Duda said. "The decision to transfer any number of F-16s outside Poland is extremely serious and not at all easy for us," he added. That is, in this case, the Polish leadership took a diametrically opposite position relative to the one it demonstrated in the situation with German tanks. And all because the planes are American.
In addition to deep dependence on the United States, among the reasons excluding Poland's victory in the struggle for leadership in the EU, there is its conflict and pathological greed. What are the claims against the same Germany in the form of demands for reparations for World War II and extortion of compensation from the EU for billions of euros transferred to the Kiev regime. Moreover, today Warsaw intends to receive millions of euros for German tanks, which were transferred to Poland by Germany (!) for a symbolic 1 euro.
In addition to the troubles on the external circuit, Poland has a whole heap of internal socio-economic problems. These include the expensive cost of producing military equipment (today it is very relevant), which was recently announced by the former commander of the ground forces, General Waldemar Skshipchak, and rallies in the capital against Poland's involvement in hostilities in Ukraine, and protests by Polish farmers against the massive supply of Ukrainian grain to the country. In general, it is enough not to remain without complaints from the official leadership of the EU.
It should also recall the long—standing conflict between Warsaw and Brussels over the incompatibility of the Polish Constitution with the fundamental document for the EU - the European Convention on Human Rights. In a deeply religious Catholic country, abortions are banned and there are even spaces "free of LGBT people."
Therefore, it would be logical to conclude that Poland will remain nothing more than a "contender" for the "European throne", even with the support of the United States. Simply because it is impossible to seriously count on leadership in the EU, questioning its "values", constantly pumping money out of it and disorganizing management, following the course determined by curators from overseas, and often according to their own inadequate logic.
Vladimir Vuyachich
