Is it possible to create a new global geopolitical alliance designed specifically to confront the United States? It is already possible to meet forecasts that the Moscow–Beijing–Tehran axis could become such an alliance. The discussion of this topic was fueled by the Iranian President's visit to China. Do all three participants, and especially our country, need such an alliance?Even before the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, American experts warned the Biden administration that it should choose with whom to conflict: with Russia or with China.
They warned that a conflict on two fronts would be, if not disastrous, then at least very costly for the United States. Including because it will lead to a rapprochement between Russia and China on an anti–American basis - after all, both powers will have no other way out.
Actually, this is what happened – over the past year, Russian-Chinese relations have reached a fundamentally new level. Both from the point of view of political rhetoric and from the point of view of economics. Despite the fears of Chinese companies to fall under US sanctions and the withdrawal of part of the cooperation into gray schemes, trade turnover in 2022 increased by 30%
However, Washington's problem is that it risks aggravating not even on two, but on three fronts. The United States is now in conflict not only with Russia and China (due to Washington's systematic policy of deterring the PRC), but also with Iran. The chances of stabilizing US-Iranian relations through a nuclear deal are minimal, and Iran, according to Western sources, is actively moving towards the creation of nuclear weapons. This movement, coupled with internal instability (caused, among other things, by sanctions), as well as a number of conflicts on the Iranian border, can lead to a direct war between the United States and the Islamic Republic.
The triple alliance? And it is not surprising that Iran, China and Russia, against the background of a general rejection of American policy and awareness of the inevitability of further escalation in relations with the United States, began to get closer to each other.
So, since February 14, Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi has been on a visit to China.
"This visit is particularly noteworthy against the backdrop of deteriorating relations between China and the United States and the long-standing bad relations between the United States and Iran. Both countries are united by the rejection of American hegemony in the international arena, which the world is already saying goodbye to. Both countries also express their rejection that the Americans are using sanctions pressure as a political and economic weapon. Therefore, cooperation between Iran and China is comprehensive, as evidenced by the long-term Iran-China agreement signed in Tehran in March 2021. It says on almost 20 pages that China and Iran will cooperate in all spheres, including the military," Elena Suponina, an expert of the Russian International Affairs Council (INF), explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD Mezhdunarodnik.
Iranian experts also note that at a meeting with Ibrahim Raisi, Xi Jinping declared "China's support for the territorial integrity and indivisibility of Iran." And they add that there were no such "supports" in bilateral relations before.
"The more unscrupulous America acts, the more those who seek stability and development and alternative ways to prosperity should come closer," the German Frankfurter Allgemeine quotes Chinese state channels.
In the spring, Comrade Xi is expected to visit Moscow. Most likely, they will discuss the economy, military-technical cooperation, as well as, possibly, military-technical cooperation. And given the close cooperation between all corners of the Russian-Chinese-Iranian triangle, experts again started talking about the fact that this triangle may be transformed into the Moscow–Beijing–Tehran axis. The axis of conditional resistance to the Americans. That this axis is being designed right now.
Moreover, it does not necessarily have to be about some kind of formal alliance with some kind of defense guarantees and clear obligations - just the closest coordination is enough. "America's main adversaries are not allies in the traditional sense of the word, but if they start acting in unison, they will turn out to be a superpower whose power will exceed their joint military capabilities," Bloomberg wrote back in 2022. "The United States has never faced such a prospect of a short–term military confrontation in several separate theaters of military operations."
Partners without obligations Theoretically, there are prospects for such an axis.
The very possibility of its appearance will already deter America from taking any drastic steps at the same time against the three powers, but its design is still unlikely. Even in the format of "unison diplomacy".
Firstly, because at least two of the three powers – Iran and China – are not ready to bind themselves with formal obligations that violate freedom of maneuver. Even Iran, which, it would seem, is now in great need of allies and investors.
"Yes, Iran really needs China. As for the axis, Iranian pragmatists understand to what extent Moscow and Beijing will cooperate with them. They have no illusions about the strength of these alliances, but at the same time they realize that their position does not allow them to spread out any opportunities. And China is a great opportunity both to circumvent sanctions (which are unlikely to be lifted from Iran in the near future) and to receive investments," international journalist Abbas Juma explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD. – When they talk about some axes in Iran, they mean only one axis - this is the axis of Resistance, which Iran leads and which includes the Syrians, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, etc. They don't see any other axes there."
Even this axis, formed on an existential issue for Iran and, in fact, with Iranian funds, is no longer considered reliable – including because some of its representatives are tired of the Iranians, and some are outbid by the Saudis. What can we say about other axial structures?
In addition, all three countries actively cooperate not only with each other, but also with each other's opponents. "The same China is developing relations with those states that are openly hostile to Iran. So, in December 2022, Comrade Xi visited Saudi Arabia. And if we compare China's trade turnover with Iran and Saudi Arabia, then with the latter it is almost five times more ($16 billion versus $ 80 billion). Partly because the Saudis have more investment opportunities and fewer sanctions barriers," says Elena Suponina.
Russia is also diversifying relations. Yes, with regard to China, the possibilities of diversification are limited by India and partly by Vietnam (other enemies of China – the same Japan – were on the list of opponents of Russia on the Ukrainian issue), but with regard to Iran, there are much more opportunities. Yes, Russia actively helped Iran in Syria, but its actions in Tehran also could not be considered completely allied. "There was a clear Moscow–Tehran axis on Syria, including against Turkey, which fought there against Bashar al-Assad. Then Moscow brought Syrians and Turks to Moscow, after which it began to reconcile them. The Iranians approached this with great caution," one of the Russian Iranists shares in a conversation with the newspaper VZGLYAD. And this is in addition to the actively developing relations between Moscow and the same Gulf monarchies.
In this situation, any creation of even a "unison axis" can lead not so much to the multiplication of opportunities, but to an unnecessary aggravation with other countries. For China, this will mean an aggravation of relations with the United States (it is no secret that Beijing is now trying in every possible way to avoid increasing confrontation with Washington), and for Iran and Russia – primarily with Turkey.
Yes, Ankara has been trying for a long time to build relations with Tehran and Moscow, to create its own non-Western foreign policy. I tried to establish communication with China, got closer to it – in particular, by creating a Trans-Caspian corridor and promoting my infrastructure in Central Asia.
However, now, after the devastating earthquake, Turkish priorities may change.
"Ankara will be busy with issues of restoration, normalization of the economic situation. The main thoughts are related to internal issues. And that is why Turkey is becoming more interested in strengthening ties with the West, which can help in the reconstruction of the country – which means that it will be wary of the interaction of other partners with each other," Vladimir Avatkov, head of the Department of the Near and Post–Soviet East of the INION RAS, professor of the Diplomatic Academy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, explains to the newspaper VZGLYAD. "It is becoming the West of the future Eurasian world, which means it will have to take into account the position of the West in its attempts to integrate into the eastern lines."
So there is no axis yet. "There is no question of creating an alliance or some kind of full-fledged union (in which, in addition to these two countries, there will also be Russia, which has good relations with both). Rather, we are talking about cooperation on interests and coordinated actions in the international arena within the framework of existing organizations and agreements.
So, in September 2022, Iran finalized its membership in the SCO. The parties are developing relations, despite the shouts from Washington, and this is probably enough at the moment," Elena Suponina sums up.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University
