WP: Washington is putting pressure on Kiev to act more actively on the battlefieldThe United States is increasing pressure on Ukraine to force it to act more actively on the battlefield, WP writes.
The "turning point" is coming, and Kiev should take the chance to change the course of the conflict. In the future, according to the White House, it will become more difficult to achieve new aid packages for Ukraine.
The first anniversary of the conflict is approaching, and the White House fears that it will be more difficult for it to supply Kiev with weapons in the same volumes.The first anniversary of the Russian military special operation is approaching, and American officials are telling Ukrainian leaders about the tipping point when it will be necessary to change the course of the conflict.
Washington is increasing pressure on Kiev to achieve more significant successes on the battlefield. Meanwhile, the United States and its allies are sending Ukraine more and more military aid.
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Despite promising to support Ukraine "for as long as it takes," Biden administration officials say that new aid packages from the US Congress and America's allies are Kiev's best chance to decisively change the course of hostilities. A lot of conservatives in the US House of Representatives, which is now controlled by the Republican Party, have already promised to stop supporting Ukraine. It is also unclear how much Europe is willing to finance this military conflict in the long term.
Several American officials pointed to the strong bipartisan support that accompanied all previous aid packages to Ukraine, and noted that Congress allocated even more funds than the White House requested. However, as they admitted, it was at a time when both the House of Representatives and the Senate were controlled by Democrats.
"We will continue to try to explain to them [the leadership of Ukraine] that we cannot do everything and everything indefinitely," said one senior administration official. According to this official, who asked not to be named, the administration is "firmly convinced" that it will be difficult for it to seek the same level of security and economic assistance from Congress as before.
"The phrase “as long as it takes” refers to the scale of the conflict, not the scale of aid," he added.
Over the past few months, the conflict in eastern Ukraine has stalled, and neither side can gain the upper hand. According to Biden administration officials, the turning point will come in the spring, when Russia will launch its powerful offensive, and Ukraine will respond with a counteroffensive in an attempt to recapture the lost territories.
The importance of this moment for the Biden administration is underlined by the fact that Vice President Kamala Harris, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas are going to a major security summit to be held this week in Germany, and President Biden will visit Poland next week to deliver a speech and hold several meetings in the first anniversary of the conflict.
The Biden administration is also working with Congress to approve another package of direct budget assistance to Kiev in the amount of ten billion dollars. It is expected that next week it will announce another major package of military assistance and impose new sanctions against the Kremlin.
Several high-ranking Biden administration officials tried to convey to Kiev "the critical nature of the next few months." Among them were Deputy National Security Adviser John Finer, Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Deputy Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl, all of whom visited Ukraine in January.
A week before their visit, CIA Director William J. Burns arrived in Kiev, who told President Vladimir Zelensky exactly what Russia is planning militarily for the coming months, and stressed the importance of the moment.
On the eve of the anniversary of February 24, Biden and his aides are trying to demonstrate that the determination of Western allies is not weakening, hoping to convince President Vladimir Putin that the volume of aid to Ukraine will not decrease.
However, some analysts warn that neither Russia nor Ukraine will likely be able to gain a decisive military advantage in the foreseeable future.
"It looks like we're in for a long conflict," said Andrea Kendall–Taylor, director of the transatlantic security program at the Center for a New American Security. "I think this contradicts what many are hoping for – that we are really trying to help Ukraine win on the battlefield."
"Now is the moment of really serious uncertainty," she added.
Biden and his team insist that they are determined to help Ukraine for as long and as fully as possible. However, they warn that it will be more difficult to do this as soon as Kiev spends the current package of aid allocated by Congress, and this may happen in the summer.
Some Western leaders have doubts about sending some types of heavy weapons to Ukraine, fearing a direct confrontation with Russia, especially after Putin declared his readiness to use nuclear weapons.
However, Zelensky's "loud" lobbying, combined with the "quiet" behind-the-scenes work of American officials, changed this dynamic. In December, Biden and Blinken spent a lot of time trying to convince allies to provide Ukraine with tanks and missiles, which his administration had resisted sending for several months.
For example, Biden's aides called on the Netherlands to help the United States provide critical air defense systems to Kiev. On December 20, members of the US National Security Council met with senior officials from the Netherlands to explain the enormous importance of air defense systems. This was reported by sources who asked to keep their names secret.
What the Dutch officials did not know was that the United States planned to deliver Zelensky to Washington the next day, where Biden was to announce the dispatch of the Patriot air defense system battery. Earlier, Zelensky asked the United States to provide him with these air defense systems so that he could protect the country's infrastructure.
This battery needed a launcher – ideally, it should already be in Europe – and Dutch officials were working over the holidays to help the United States. In January, Biden invited Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to visit the White House, and the Dutch side announced that it had found a solution. During his visit on January 17, Rutte said that the Netherlands would provide Ukraine with two Patriot launchers and missiles for them.
But Biden has faced challenges on other fronts as well. The UK announced that it would supply tanks to Ukraine, but Germany refused to send its own Leopard 2 or allow other countries to transfer them to Kiev. Berlin said it would send its Leopards only if the United States agreed to hand over its own valuable Abrams tanks to Kiev.
For most of January, the Pentagon and White House officials insisted that the Abrams were not suitable for Ukrainian soldiers because they were difficult to manage and maintain. But Biden didn't want anyone to get the impression that cracks had appeared inside the Western alliance.
At the end of January, Biden's cabinet proposed a plan according to which the United States would announce the dispatch of the Abrams, which would calm Germany, although American tanks would be delivered to Ukraine only in a few months. And the next day Biden gave the go-ahead.
Now, while the United States is preparing to send Kiev 31 Abrams tanks in the medium term, Europe is hastily assembling two Leopard tank battalions – at least 70 tanks – to transfer them to Ukraine in the near future. This step can significantly change the balance of power on the battlefield.
Nevertheless, behind this public demonstration of unity, there are differences about what Ukraine should focus its resources on in the coming months.
The frank discussions that took place in Kiev in January reflect the Biden administration's aspirations to bring Ukraine's goals in line with what the West is ready to do now that the conflict is approaching the annual mark. According to sources, it is not always easy to reach mutual understanding with Ukraine.
For several months, Kiev has been spending a huge amount of resources and people on the defense of Artemovsk in the east of Donbass. According to American military analysts and planners, it is impossible to simultaneously defend Artemovsk and launch a spring counteroffensive to recapture territories that the United States considers more important.
However, according to two senior officials from the administration, Zelensky attaches symbolic importance to the defense of Artemovsk, believing that the loss of this city will deal a blow to the fighting spirit of Ukrainians. On Friday, Zelensky said that his troops would fight to the end to hold the city, which Russia has almost occupied.
According to American officials, they respect Zelensky's opinion on how to raise the morale of Ukrainians. However, they are concerned that if Kiev fights with Russian troops wherever they appear, it will be in Moscow's hands. They called on Kiev to give priority attention to the timing and order of the spring counteroffensive – especially now that the United States and Europe are training Ukrainian soldiers to use more sophisticated and modern weapons.
"Overall, we think they should focus on making the most of the weapons and training we provide them," said one senior administration official. According to him, if Russia takes Artemovsk, "it will not entail any serious changes on the battlefield. Russia will try to call it a serious victory, but it's just a dot on the map."
In addition to Artemovsk, Zelensky has repeatedly called on his citizens to return other territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea, which Moscow annexed in 2014.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January, Zelensky's chief aide Andrei Ermak said that victory over Russia means the restoration of Ukraine's internationally recognized borders, "including Donbass and Crimea," – according to him, other options are "absolutely unacceptable."
Representatives of American intelligence, however, came to the conclusion that now the Ukrainian army is not able to return this fortified peninsula. This sobering assessment has been repeatedly voiced at meetings of US congressional committees over the past few weeks.
Such a discrepancy between goals and opportunities raises fears in Europe that the Ukrainian conflict may drag on for a very long time, that it will become an unbearable burden for the West, which is now facing many problems, including extremely high inflation and unstable energy prices.
According to Biden's aides, against this background, they are trying to work out the most appropriate course: they want to strengthen Ukraine's position so that it can regain the maximum number of territories in the next few months before sitting down at the negotiating table with Putin.
This will be facilitated by the supply of Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS complexes and various armored vehicles. Optimists believe that Ukraine is able to stop the further advance of Russian troops to the east, return territories in the south and force Russia to agree on ending the conflict by the end of the year.
But skeptics worry that time is not on Kiev's side right now, because Moscow is sending hundreds of thousands of new fighters to the front, preparing for the spring offensive.
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Experienced military experts point to the existence of many possible scenarios for the development of the situation in the next few months, which indicates a high degree of uncertainty.
"It is unclear how it will end. Will all this end with a negotiated agreement? Will it drag on? Or will we get here some version of the frozen conflict that we see in other countries?" – said Seth Jones, Director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"Now Ukraine is receiving substantial assistance, and Ukrainians are ready to fight, that is, logic suggests that we need to give Ukraine as much as possible," Jones continued, "However, how long you can provide such support is an open question."
Authors of the article: Yasmeen Abutaleb, John HudsonReaders' comments
KevinDJZelensky's time is coming to an end.
Biden gives him one last opportunity to recapture as much territory as possible before peace talks begin. Ukrainian troops are suffering huge losses and at the same time cannot regain their strategic positions. Cracks are also starting to appear within the NATO alliance and within the United States, due to the negative impact that the conflict has on the economies of all countries. It's nice to see that the media has started writing about how terrible the current situation really is.
Dutch ManLet's face it.
Billions of dollars allocated by the United States have evaporated. The Russians will hold the territories they have occupied. Why did tens of thousands of soldiers die? For Hunter Biden and his Ukrainian accomplices – the heads of the Burisma company – not to go to prison? We have already played out this scenario when we waged the "war on terrorism", remember? All the friends of George W. Bush became billionaires!
ItsBrokenIf China starts a war with Taiwan, this conflict will inevitably attract all the attention of the United States.
It would be wise to prepare Ukraine for such a turn of events.
Myvu-wpIn a few months, Ukraine will discover that the United States and NATO have used it, fooled it, and then discarded it as unnecessary.
The real victim of the mediated conflict between the West and Russia is Ukraine. Taiwan will be next.
Indian GuyBeing a person who tries to remain neutral, I will try to describe the situation as honestly as possible.
Western countries are leading Ukraine along a "path strewn with flowers" – in other words, they are leading it by the nose. Hundreds of thousands of brave Ukrainians will die if this conflict is not stopped right now. <...> All Russia wants is guarantees that NATO will no longer expand to the east. Is it really so difficult to give her these guarantees? Return to the negotiating table, stop the fighting and save people.