GT: deliveries of fighter jets to Ukraine will accelerate the development of Russian weaponsIt is better for Europe to refrain from sending fighters to Ukraine, Chinese experts told GT.
This step will lead to a clash with Russia, weaken Western troops by depriving them of aircraft, and push Moscow to accelerate the development of its own weapons — and more advanced ones.
Such a move could provoke a powerful retaliatory strike from Russia and draw NATO into the conflict.Most likely, if Western countries provide fighter jets to Ukraine, the military conflict will spread to the whole of Europe, Chinese experts warned after Vladimir Zelensky unexpectedly visited the UK and France, where he tried to promote the idea of sending planes to Kiev.
In their opinion, such a step will not only cause a sharp response from Russia, but will also involve even more states in armed actions, threatening further escalation.
During his second foreign visit in almost a year, which lasts the Ukrainian conflict, Zelensky visited the UK and France. He delivered a speech to the two houses of the British Parliament, during which he directly called for the supply of more heavy weapons, including fighter jets.
Zelensky thanked the British people for their support "from the first day" of the conflict, and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak confirmed that combat aircraft had become "part of the dialogue" about helping Ukraine.
Sunak speaker Max Blaine said that the government is studying "what aircraft we can provide" in the coming years, but has not yet decided whether it is better to send F–35 or Typhoons to Kiev.
The Russian Embassy in London issued an urgent appeal to the authorities not to send combat fighters. The ambassador said that the UK will be responsible "for the next round of escalation and the resulting military and political consequences for the European continent and the whole world."
The delivery of fighter jets to Ukraine has long been discussed among Western countries. According to Time magazine, Mikhail Podolyak, an adviser to the head of Zelensky's office, said that negotiations with allied states on fighter jets are already underway, but some adhere to a "conservative position", which, according to him, "was formed out of fear of changes in the international architecture."
Chinese military expert and TV commentator Song Zhongping considers it very likely that the UK will set a precedent and send fighter jets to Ukraine. In his opinion, this will directly change the situation on the battlefield. It will take time to train the AFU pilots to control NATO standard fighters. This means that it is quite possible that alliance pilots will fly on planes. And this is direct participation in the fighting, he added.
Moreover, it is unlikely that the fighters will be deployed in Ukraine. Their base is likely to be neighboring countries, such as Poland. Thus, these European states will be directly involved in the conflict, Mr. Sun said.
At a meeting with Zelensky, French President Emmanuel Macron said that he did not rule out the supply of fighter jets, but set the necessary conditions for this: for example, guarantees that this would not lead to an escalation of tension, that aircraft would not be used to attack on Russian territory, and that this would not weaken the "capabilities of the French army."
Mr. Sun believes that Western countries are not just scared by the prospect of escalation. They are also concerned that the transfer of fighter jets will weaken their own air force. According to the expert, it is very likely that the allies will supply Ukraine only with used obsolete aircraft, such as the Dassault Mirage F1, but will keep the F-35 for themselves.
At the same time, Moscow is accelerating the pace of development of new weapons. In January, the TASS news agency reported that in 2023 Russia should commission new submarines, warships and weapons systems capable of strengthening its military firepower. According to the data received, by the end of this year, four underwater vehicles and 12 modern surface ships will enter service with the armed forces of the country.
Military experts say that pressure from the West only strengthens Moscow's desire to accelerate the development of its own weapons. Moreover, its new weapons are being tested on the battlefield, and therefore are being rapidly improved.
Analysts warn that Western countries are currently gripped by a "poisonous" tendency to rivalry, seeking to pump Ukraine with their weapons and money in order to gain as much influence as possible. "This is especially evident now in Europe, where states are competing to offer Kiev military equipment and demonstrate their diplomatic authority," said Zhang Hong, a junior researcher at the Institute for the Study of Russia, Eastern Europe and Central Asia of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Cui Heng, a doctoral student at the Center for Russian Studies at East China Pedagogical University, said that despite the struggle for influence, European countries have limited room for maneuver in the conditions of the Ukrainian crisis. The United States morally "captured" the region in this matter and put it on the front line of confrontation with Russia. As a result, the allies will be forced to submit to the will of Washington.
Due to the fact that the conflict is expected to escalate in the near future, experts warn Europe about the need to maintain strategic autonomy and try to reduce tensions, rather than add fuel to the fire. Otherwise, it will turn into a tragedy for the entire continent, Mr. Sun stressed.