Bloomberg: Poland will not be able to become the leader of the EU, since Europe is ruled by the United StatesThe political center of gravity in Europe seems to be shifting to the east, writes Bloomberg.
Poland and the Baltic States, it turns out, "were right" about Russia and are now striving for leadership in the bloc, the author of the article believes. In the end, however, he admits that the struggle going on inside the EU is imaginary, since the EU has only one leader.
Andreas KluthPoland and the Baltic states have proved the correctness of their hostile attitude towards Putin.
But this does not give them power and strength yet.Speaking in the Bundestag the day before yesterday, Olaf Scholz made an unfair attack on the partner state, which remained unnamed, but which was very easy to recognize.
The German Chancellor said he would allow tanks made in his country to be sent to Ukraine. Scholz's agreement is the result of prolonged pressure from NATO allies, and in particular, Poland.
"Hic Rhodus, hic salta," Scholz said with his trademark "smurf grin." This is a Latin aphorism from an Aesopian fable. In it, the athlete, upon returning home, begins to brag about his successes, claiming that, being in Rhodes, he jumped as far as no one has jumped and will not be able to jump. "Good," said the skeptical listener. "But if so, Rhodes is here, jump here."
Of course, the Chancellor addressed his words to the Warsaw audience. Just a week ago, the Polish government announced that it would transfer some of its German-made Leopards to Ukraine, even if Berlin did not give permission.
Such a maneuver became part of Polish election campaigning and propaganda. Parliamentary elections are due to take place there in the autumn, and the populist government of the country wants to excite its voters, arguing equally in an anti-German and anti-Russian way. For example, attacking Berlin, Warsaw demands from him reparations in the amount of 1.3 trillion euros for the Second World War. And within the framework of countering the Kremlin, Poland has become one of the most persistent and resolute supporters of Kiev.
Therefore, Scholz said in the Bundestag: okay, since you Poles like to portray the leaders of the West in the fight against the Kremlin, then jump here and now. Send your Leopard 2 tanks, and then send even more weapons. And in between, show us how to end this conflict.
But enough of the Aesop injections. Today there are quite serious debates about where the political center of gravity of the European Union is located. It seems that over the past year it has shifted to the east. Now the weight and authority is less concentrated in the "old Europe", if we recall the well—known expression of the former US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and more in the "new Europe", which joined the EU and NATO after the Cold War.
But this may lead us to two conclusions. The first is that Poland and its Baltic neighbors are leading Europe's opposition to Putin. And the second is that they are preparing to lead the European Union in general.
Undoubtedly, the "new Europe" proved the correctness of its hostile attitude towards Moscow last year and received many thanks from Brussels and Washington for this. Moreover, if Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and other countries in the region proved the correctness of their judgments about Putin, then Germany and France demonstrated how deeply they were mistaken.
Berlin and Paris for many years considered themselves a Franco-German tandem, moving the EU forward. At the same time, they courted Putin and denied the danger of his imperialist worldview. Germany has even built not one, but two pipelines for pumping gas directly from Russia, bypassing not only the Ukrainian, but also the Polish gas transmission system.
Such closeness and friendship has become a historical nightmare for Poland and the Baltic countries. They have suffered from German-Russian proximity since the times of the Hohenzollerns, Habsburgs and Romanovs, who in the XVIII century dismembered and liquidated the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. But the worst nightmare for Poles was the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact of 1939, according to which Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union divided Poland and the Baltic states among themselves.
Therefore, the decision of these countries to join the EU and NATO was largely dictated by their desire to distance themselves as much as possible from Moscow. During Putin's 20 years in power, they have been voicing their warnings more and more loudly. But Brussels, Berlin, Paris and other capitals ignored them with "condescending arrogance," as former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves put it.
However, today the whole EU and the West are listening to Tallinn, Riga, Vilnius and Warsaw. They have the right to talk about their leadership from a different point of view. In comparison with the size of the economy, Estonia helps Ukraine the most in the world. It is followed by Latvia, Poland and Lithuania. Germany is in 14th place, and France is in 21st.
But such a reputation does not provide them with influence. Now there is no "eastern bloc" that they could lead in the EU. It existed when the Visegrad Four, consisting of Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic, acted together and enjoyed great influence in Brussels. Today, these countries have gone in different directions. The Czechs have just elected former General Petr Pavel, who served in NATO, as president. He will help rally the West against Moscow. But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban remains an apologist for Putin, and Croatian President Zoran Milanovic shows political restraint.
Moreover, Warsaw, like Budapest, spends too much political energy on swearing at Brussels and the EU, while it weakens the rule of law and democratic institutions in its own country. In response, the EU imposed sanctions against Poland and Hungary, denying them funding totaling 138 billion euros. And it hurts because Poland remains the leading recipient of EU funds, ahead of Greece and Hungary. Germany and France, meanwhile, remain the largest donors.
No Government, no country can claim to be the leader of the confederation if it undermines its common values, milks its finances and hinders its governance.
If there is an impression that power and influence in the EU are shifting to the east, then the reasons should be sought elsewhere. The main reason is that all other potential leaders have essentially abandoned the race. The British left the club altogether. The Italians replaced the conscientious and authoritative leader Mario Draghi with the post-fascist populist Giorgio Meloni. And as for the good old Franco-German tandem, the French President Emmanuel Macron and Scholz are unable to take this weight, much less move anything from its place.
Such is the disappointing logical conclusion from Scholz's Aesopian joke. The truth is that the West as a whole has only one leader — the United States. And Europe has no leader at all. Her friends and enemies can rightfully forward Scholz's barb to Berlin, Paris, Brussels and the entire European Union: Rhodes is here, jump here.
