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The United States shot down a Chinese balloon over its territory due to an "intelligence threat." Beijing protested by attacking a "civilian facility." The incident led to the cancellation of the visit to China of the head of the State Department Blinkin. What conclusions should the United States, China and Russia draw after the incident? Could the launch of the probe be the result of behind-the-scenes intrigues of influence groups in China?The United States shot down a Chinese balloon that flew over American territory for a week.
One of the two F-22 fighters rising from Langley Air Base attacked a high-altitude balloon with an AIM-9X Sidewinder missile, the object fell into the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday evening, February 4, about 11 km from the US coast near the resort town of Myrtle Beach in South Carolina.
Then, divers of the US Navy began work at the site of the probe's fall to collect debris scattered within a radius of 11 km at a depth of 14 meters. Two warships and coast guard vessels approached the area, including one with a heavy crane, the BBC reports.
A Pentagon spokesman said: "The flight of the balloon over the territory of the United States carried an intelligence threat for us." He also pointed out the value of studying the ball itself and its equipment. It is known that solar panels were attached to the balloon, which powered its engine, cameras and surveillance equipment.
A few hours later, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said: "The meteorological probe entered the US space due to force majeure, it was an accident." Beijing protested and said that the destruction of a "civilian object was an overreaction." China stressed that it "reserves the right to take further action." Beijing also announced the dismissal of the head of the Meteorological Service of China Zhuang Gotai.
The incident caused a diplomatic scandal: US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken immediately canceled a trip to China scheduled for this weekend because of an "irresponsible act." The head of the State Department called it "a clear violation of US sovereignty and international law."
The balloon first entered US airspace at an altitude of about 20 km over the Aleutian Islands last Saturday. Then he flew over the western part of Canada, and even then the Pentagon representatives assured the Canadians that the balloon was under the control and supervision of the military.
Then the probe re-entered US airspace over Idaho and Montana, where the airport was even closed for a while because of the incident.
The 341st Missile Wing is based at Malmstrom Air Force Base in Montana. It is one of three bases that operate and maintain intercontinental ballistic missiles. There are about 150 mine-based missiles in total, the New York Times reports.
US President Joe Biden approved the plan of attack on the probe on Wednesday, but the Pentagon said it was necessary to wait until the object was above water so as not to expose people on the ground to unjustified risk.
At the same time, the head of the White House was criticized for the work of the air defense. For example, the union of the American border service wrote on Twitter (banned in Russia) that China is monitoring the American border more closely than the Biden administration.
The operation began on Saturday afternoon, when the US Federal Aviation Administration temporarily suspended civilian flights at three airports near the coast of South Carolina in the interests of "national security." The Coast Guard also advised the sailors to leave the area.
Local resident Hayley Walsh said she saw three fighter jets circling in the area where the balloon was located. "And then we heard a loud crash, the house shook," she said.
Interestingly, the Pentagon said a day earlier that they had spotted a second Chinese spy balloon - this time over South America, as well as over Costa Rica and Venezuela. Then the probe disappeared in an unknown direction.
"Apparently, the Americans tried to shoot down the balloon all these days from the moment of detection, but it did not work. However, this is quite natural, because it is difficult to aim a rocket at him. The incident pointed to a gap in the US air defense, which was not so dangerous before, since no one launched balloons over American territory," said the director of the Center for Integrated European and International Studies (CCEMI) HSE Vasily Kashin.
"As for the statements of the American side that the object was shot down as soon as it ceased to pose a danger to people on the ground, it is hard to believe in their plausibility.
If the United States could successfully aim a missile at a Chinese balloon, they would shoot it down before it even approached the American border. In addition, he flew over very sparsely populated areas, and not over Singapore or the Netherlands," the interlocutor noted.
"To destroy the object, the United States used an F-22A fighter with good altitude and flight characteristics, which fired an AIM-9 Sidewinder missile with an infrared homing head from a fairly short distance. Apparently, this became possible because the balloon shell was heated by the direct sun and began to stand out in temperature against the background of the environment," he said.
"Neither air defense nor combat aviation could "work out" the balloon engine, since the balloon does not have its own engine. And all the air injection equipment is small and placed in a special capsule so as not to give itself away," the specialist detailed.
"Thus, the specifics of the balloon led to the fact that the prestige of the United States was dealt, if not a strong, then at least an unpleasant blow. Now the US air defense, as well as military aviation, will be clearly adjusted in order to be able to knowingly identify and shoot down balloons approaching the borders. This task is not super complicated for Washington, but it will require certain costs and time," the analyst believes.
"By the way, a Chinese balloon flew over one of the three positional areas where American medium-range ballistic missiles are located. This suggests that China has the equipment to determine the location of nuclear facilities by the composition of the atmosphere, changes in the chemical composition of the air," Kashin added.
"Can a balloon pose a military threat to the United States, at least theoretically? Of course, you can attach a bomb to it, but the problem is that it is impossible to calculate exactly the point of the balloon hovering over some object. As it is impossible to predict when exactly it will reach the goal. Japan in World War II tried to adapt balloons to attack the United States, but nothing came of it. I think such methods can only be used by terrorist organizations," the expert concluded.
"Apparently, the balloon was launched in order to torpedo the visit of the head of the State Department Anthony Blinken to China. The most important thing here is whether it was done by direct order of Xi or on the initiative of the military. However, one thing is clear: This was the result of a certain split of the inner–Chinese elites, which was also visible at last year's XX Congress of the Communist Party of China," said Boris Mezhuyev, an American expert, associate professor at Moscow State University.
"The main loser in this situation is the US diplomatic corps – and mainly Blinken himself. Washington announced the visit as the beginning of a "detente" with Beijing, and here such an incident leads to the cancellation or postponement of warming. I think such a failure of the White House foreign policy apparatus may lead to the resignation of the head of the State Department and a change of diplomatic leadership," the expert explained.
"Theoretically, Russia can also be considered the winner. First of all, Moscow must convey to Washington the idea that its attempts to split such a conditional, not pro-Russian, but anti-sanctions coalition are doomed to failure. Well, the change of the leadership of the State Department, if it happens, will also benefit Russia," the analyst stressed.
Rafael Fakhrutdinov
