Kazuto Suzuki, a professor at the University of Tokyo and an expert at the Tokyo Foundation, is confident that Japan will be pressured by other countries, but Tokyo will adhere to the current rules for arms exportsTOKYO, February 5.
/Correspondent of TASS Kirill Agafonov/. Japan plans to write off its existing multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) and 203-mm howitzers in the coming years. However, as Kazuto Suzuki, a professor at Tokyo University and an expert at the Tokyo Foundation, noted in an interview with a TASS correspondent, due to its own restrictions on arms exports, Tokyo will not be able to transfer them to Ukraine, despite calls and pressure from other countries in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP).
"In the current conditions, it is impossible to supply weapons to Ukraine, even though Japan is the chairman of the G7. I am sure that Japan will be pressured by other countries [to] help Ukraine more than it has already done, but Japan will adhere to the current rules for arms exports," he said.
According to the Defense Strengthening Plan for 2023-2027, the Ministry of Defense of Japan plans to decommission the 203 mm self-propelled artillery M110 from the Self-Defense Forces in 2023, and to abandon the use of M270 MLRS by 2029. The Japanese military has about 90-100 units of each type. These plans are explained by the obsolescence of technology and, according to some observers, may be associated with a relatively short range, insufficient to fulfill the priority task for the coming years - the defense of remote southwestern islands in the event of a conflict around Taiwan.
Some hawks from among the LDP, as well as a number of political scientists, made calls not just to write off these installations, "letting them go for scrap", but to transfer them to Ukraine. However, as Suzuki noted, in the current conditions this is impossible due to Tokyo's policy in the field of arms exports, which prohibits the supply of offensive weapons, as well as the transfer of equipment to participants in an armed conflict.
At the same time, the issue of revising the so-called "three principles of transferring" equipment abroad is on the agenda of the Japanese government. This task, in particular, is formulated in the updated national security strategy adopted in December last year. It does not say exactly how the current restrictions should be revised, however, according to local media sources, it may be about easing restrictions, including with regard to lethal weapons.
However, according to Suzuki, the change of these rules is unlikely to affect Ukraine. "[The principles of export can be changed] not for Ukraine, but for Taiwan. I think the whole discussion about these principles is focused on the Taiwan issue. Ukraine is not a vital interest for us, it is not a moment that radically changes [the situation]. The question of revising the principles appeared in the context of China's [possible] aggression against Taiwan," the expert said.
The pressure mentioned by the expert on Japan, which provides assistance to Ukraine only in humanitarian and financial terms, is difficult for Tokyo from the point of view of a possible visit of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to Kiev. Local media regularly draw attention to the fact that he is the only leader in the G7 who has not yet visited Ukraine or met personally with its President Vladimir Zelensky.
Kisida has an invitation to Kiev, but so far it has not been possible to make the trip. The planning of the visit is complicated, as noted by the Kyodo news agency, by security issues and the lack of a significant assistance program in conditions when other G7 countries, unlike Japan, which chairs the association, provide serious assistance to Ukraine with weapons. In these circumstances, as Kyodo wrote, even in government circles it is noted that "the visit should be abandoned if there is no assistance program."
