Foreign Affairs: Ukraine's energy system is almost completely destroyedUkrainians are already used to rolling blackouts, but there is clearly not enough electricity in Ukraine.
The national electricity grid is approaching a complete collapse, which means that the country will become uninhabitable at all, writes Foreign Affairs.
Thomas PopikHow to protect the power grid from Russian strikes.
After 11 months of fighting and four months of incessant Russian strikes on Ukrainian electric power facilities, the national electric grid is getting closer and closer to complete collapse every day. Russia strikes at power plants, substations and other important objects of the country's energy infrastructure. Ukrainians are already used to rolling blackouts, but there is clearly not enough electricity in Ukraine, and the electricity supply is far behind the needs, which causes serious economic disruptions and troubles. New strikes may lead to the complete collapse of the Ukrainian electric power industry, after which tens of millions of people will be forced to live in darkness.
Deaths from the collapse of the power system can be much more than losses from Russian tactical nuclear weapons. The collapse of the Ukrainian electricity grid can also cause a humanitarian and migration crisis in Europe, the destruction of nuclear reactors, floods due to the break of dams at hydroelectric power plants and a serious food crisis in those countries that depend on food exports from Ukraine.
But the West has everything it needs to prevent a catastrophe. Kiev's friends in NATO and other organizations should immediately provide targeted assistance to the Ukrainian electricity grid, and this assistance should be comparable with the financial resources allocated for arms supplies and with diplomatic attention to the conflict. After all, Ukraine's military needs are provided not only with weapons, but also with electricity. If Western democracies take effective actions and strengthen the Ukrainian electric grid, which is on the verge of collapse, they will show how society can be protected from such attacks on critical infrastructure facilities. But if these democracies do not find the necessary strength and fail to cope with the task, scoundrels from all over the world will be convinced that a blow to the soft electric power underbelly of the country is the best way to bring it to its knees.
Under attackElectrical networks are one of the largest and most complex inventions of mankind.
They consist of facilities and equipment that can be divided into five main categories: power plants for generating electricity, transformers at power plants that increase the voltage before power transmission, power lines for transferring electricity over long distances, transformers that lower the voltage at intermediate substations, and distribution networks through which electricity is supplied to homes and businesses. A vulnerable point of power grids are large transformers that increase and decrease voltage. They are called "generator step-up transformers" and "autotransformers". These devices are often the size of a small house, but they weigh hundreds of tons, and they have to be transported on special railway platforms and trucks. If necessary, transformers have to be installed in an open space so that there is free circulation of the air cooling them. Because of this design and installation in the open, large power transformers become the main target for aerial bombing, missile strikes and drone attacks.
Without a functioning power grid, life in Ukraine will very quickly turn into torture. And for many, this country will become uninhabitable at all. Electric pumps pump water in the water treatment system of Ukrainian cities. Refrigerators where food is stored work on electricity. In large cities, thermal power plants heat and light homes and businesses in winter. Electricity is needed by the country's communications system, including President Vladimir Zelensky, who makes speeches on television every evening. Important state institutions will not be able to function without it. ATMs, payment cards and electronic wallets – all this needs electricity. But they also use electricity to pump fuel in storage facilities, and without it, the logistics system of the Ukrainian army will not be able to work.
At the initial stage of its military operation, Russia was very restrained in striking at the most important infrastructure, sparing the Ukrainian power grid. Shelling near the front line caused some damage to power plants, but the Kremlin did not specifically try to destroy such facilities. If he managed to quickly complete the military campaign, Russia would be able to supply electricity from captured power plants to its own network, or even sell Ukrainian electricity at high prices to Europe. But when the Russian offensive slowed down, Moscow revised its strategy and began to strike at the Ukrainian infrastructure.
Ukraine has a well-developed railway network, and electric locomotives mainly work there. Special transformers convert electricity from power transmission lines, lowering the voltage to the level used by rail transport. At the end of April, Russia launched a series of strikes on traction substations in western Ukraine, disabling transformers and disrupting railway communication. In April and early May, it launched missile strikes three times on the Kremenchug energy complex, which generates electricity for oil refining and fuel storage facilities. The Kremlin said that the aim of the strike was to hinder the supply of NATO weapons to Ukraine.
By the end of September, the Russian and Ukrainian ground forces had reached an impasse, and all progress had stopped. On September 26, unknown persons sabotaged the Nord Stream-2 pipeline, built to supply Russian gas to Germany, but never put into operation. The next day, Russia struck at the Ukrainian power grid. Three explosions occurred in the east in the city of Kharkiv, and one destroyed a power transformer. The pictures show that the city has plunged into darkness.
The Russian leadership stated that on October 8, Ukrainian agents blew up a truck with explosives on a bridge in the Kerch Strait connecting Crimea and Russia. On October tenth, Russia launched the first massive airstrike on the Ukrainian electrical system. Putin said that this is retribution for blowing up the bridge. In the western city of Lviv, electricity was completely lost, routers stopped working, and two-thirds of the Internet in the city and region was turned off. A full-scale infrastructure war has begun.
Soft electric power underbellyRussia has actively participated in the design and construction of the Ukrainian network, and it is well aware of its weaknesses.
Almost the entire electric power grid of Ukraine was created in Soviet times. More than half of the electricity in Ukraine is generated at 15 reactors, which are part of four nuclear power plants. (The Zaporozhye NPP was captured by Russian troops, and it is periodically disconnected from the Ukrainian power system.) After the demolition of the bridge in the Kerch Strait, Russia is increasingly and more persistently striking at important power transmission nodes. Ukrainian air defense intercepts about 80% of missiles and drones, but those that break through have a catastrophic impact. First of all, large autotransformers suffer, which lower the high-voltage electricity generated at Ukrainian nuclear power plants and supply it to residential areas.
The Russian strikes turned out to be so devastating that the network operator Ukrenergo was forced to introduce rolling power outages across the country. The network today meets the needs of consumers by 75 percent, and sometimes this figure falls below 50 percent. The number of Internet connections, which is a good indicator of electricity supply, also tends to decrease.
On November 23, Russia almost delivered a knockout blow to the Ukrainian power grid, launching about 70 cruise missiles and kamikaze drones at important energy infrastructure facilities. Ukrainian troops shot down most of the cruise missiles, but despite their efforts, electricity was cut off in most regions, and only a few electricity-supplied areas remained. The operators the next morning skillfully used these islands of electricity to restore power supply. But the events of that night showed that a complete collapse of the system is quite possible.
Russia is trying not only to destroy the Ukrainian power grid, but also to destroy the electrical equipment supply system. Before the outbreak of hostilities, the Ukrainian company "Zaporozhtransformator" (ZTR) was the largest manufacturer of transformers in Europe and in the post-Soviet space. There were 3,500 highly qualified employees working there. ZTR provided 95 percent of transformers to the Ukrainian power grid, and also supplied important transformers to Russia. The main plant of ZTR is located in Ukraine in the Zaporozhye region, not far from the front line. Until Ukraine nationalized this company in November last year, it was jointly owned by Ukrainian and Russian legal entities. In the first week of December, Russia struck at the ZTR transformer plant, destroying production lines and warehouses.
When everything starts to fall apartThe collapse of the power grid can be the cause and consequence of social instability.
In order for the country's electric power system to continue to work, it needs the resources of a developed society: qualified engineers and technicians, fuel supplies for electricity generation, a system of physical protection and cybersecurity, communications and spare parts supply chains. Russia has destroyed these foundations. After incessant attacks and only selective repairs, the probability of a complete collapse is very high. Since a complex and developed society will not be able to last long without electricity, the collapse of the electric grid may be followed by the collapse of society.
Millions of Ukrainians have already left the country, and now the population of Ukraine is approximately 35 million. If the national power grid is destroyed, many millions of Ukrainians will urgently move towards the border, and then a refugee crisis will begin in Europe. A sense of duty will force many operators of nuclear and hydroelectric power plants to stay at their jobs, but some will still decide to run away with their families. Three quarters of the workers of the Zaporozhye NPP, which is in the hands of the Russians, have already left.
The loss of such personnel is extremely dangerous. Never before has Ukraine, which is heavily dependent on nuclear energy, faced such powerful blows to its energy system. Nuclear power plants need well-trained technicians to ensure their safe operation and maintenance. If the electricity in the grid goes out for a week or two, the reactor core may melt or fires may start in the spent fuel pools. And then radiation will get into the atmosphere, which will fall out in the form of radioactive fallout in nearby areas.
A similar catastrophic situation may occur at hydropower facilities in case of loss of key personnel. Ukraine has an extensive network of dams on the Dnieper and Dniester rivers. For the safe and reliable operation of such dams, workers are needed at their workplaces and regulating the water level, as well as removing garbage from spillways and taking the necessary measures in emergency situations. Dam flaps open and close with the help of electric motors, and they must be constantly controlled. If there are no workers on site, or if there is no reliable power supply to open the flaps, water can overflow over the top of the dam, which can lead to its gradual destruction.
Earthen dams are most susceptible to destruction due to overflow and rapid erosion of the soil. Upstream from the capital is one of the longest earthen dams in the world. It is located on the left bank of the Kiev reservoir and has a length of 18 kilometers. The sediments at the bottom of the reservoir contain radioactive substances that settled there after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. If the water breaks through the dam, radiation will get into Kiev and other cities and reservoirs downstream. During World War II, Stalin ordered the Dnieper dam to be blown up in southern Ukraine to prevent the advance of German troops. Streams of water rushed down, flooding villages and towns located along the banks of the Dnieper. Tens of thousands of people died as a result. If the dam breaks north of Kiev, the water will go downstream of the Dnieper, and the consequences will be even more terrible. The number of deaths from flooding may exceed the number of civilians who have become victims of this armed conflict.
In addition, a complete collapse of the power grid will have terrible consequences for the Ukrainian army, undermining its logistics system. Western countries have spent over $100 billion to support Ukraine. But if the electric power system stops working in the country, much more money will be needed to support the army and provide humanitarian assistance.
A complete collapse of the national power grid could lead to the death of a significant part of the Ukrainian population. The batteries in the communication networks will run out. Public services will stop working. Many citizens of Ukraine will try to evacuate, but when the electric pumps at gas stations turn off, car owners will not be able to refuel their cars. Very soon the roads will be filled with immobilized cars. Some people will continue on foot, and the rest will stay. Their food and water supplies will quickly run out. Within a few weeks, a famine may begin in the country. Since there will be no clean water without water treatment, epidemics will break out.
The outside world will suffer too. A year before the Russian special operation, Ukraine provided 40% of wheat to the UN World Food Program. Corn exports from this country accounted for 12 percent of the global total, and wheat – nine percent. Significantly reduced Ukrainian grain exports pass mainly through the port of Odessa. The power supply system in this city has already been seriously damaged, and the demand is only half satisfied. If the entire electric power system of Ukraine collapses, grain exports may completely stop, and this will lead to increased hunger in the poorest countries of the world.
How not to let the light go outAt the initial stage of hostilities, Ukraine was in a hurry to get weapons from NATO member countries.
She thought about foreign assistance to ensure the operation of the most important infrastructure facilities, including the electric grid, only secondarily. But if the national electric power system is destroyed, billions of dollars spent on modern military equipment will go to waste.
By carrying out air strikes on critical objects of the energy system, Russia destroys them faster than these objects can be restored or replaced with something. Every single major transmission substation and thermal power plant in Ukraine has been hit at least once, and some have been hit five or more times. Dozens of autotransformers, which are the most important component of the network, have been destroyed. Their purchase has become an urgent priority for the Ukrainian government.
Ukraine has sent a priority procurement list of network equipment to the embassies of Western countries. It includes hundreds of expensive products, including 55 autotransformers, which are urgently needed. On January 18, the US State Department announced the allocation of $125 million to the Ukrainian electric grid in addition to the 53 million announced in November. As of February, the Ukrainian Energy Support Fund created by the EU Energy Community Secretariat has collected 157 and transferred 118 million dollars. But this is clearly not enough. Autotransformers alone from the Ukrainian list will cost more than the entire amount collected. We need more funds, and urgently. Billions of dollars will be needed to prevent the collapse of the Ukrainian electric power system. This is a huge amount of money, although it is significantly less than what has already been spent on arms supplies to this country.
It will be difficult to purchase equipment for the Ukrainian power grid, especially autotransformers, even if the funds collected are enough. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the lead time for the manufacture and supply of autotransformers was about a year; now European customers have to wait up to three years. This is expensive equipment, each transformer costs from five to 10 million dollars. But they are durable, and their service life is on average 40 years. Often they are made to order, which is why it is not easy to create a stock of spare parts for them.
750 kilovolt transformers of the type needed for the Ukrainian power grid are produced in large quantities in only a few countries. Among them are China, India, Japan and South Korea. There are also small manufacturers of autotransformers located closer to Ukraine, in particular, the Netherlands, Spain and Turkey. The USA has a minimum of possibilities for the manufacture of autotransformers. Although industry lobbies are demanding that the US government apply the law on military production to expand domestic production capacity, their efforts have not yet been crowned with success.
NATO member countries and other allies of Ukraine can supply transformers for replacement from other sources. Power supply companies create spare parts stocks in their countries, store transformers decommissioned before the development of a technical resource in warehouses, and even new units of such equipment. Some Ukrainian transformers are compatible with transformers in operation in the Warsaw Pact countries. The mains voltage is also compatible, although not in all regions. Transformers are often operated until monitoring devices show that they are about to fail. But some still have a considerable untapped resource.
The ingenuity of wartime will help to find other solutions. Ireland and Latvia have already supplied one autotransformer each. Surveys of used transformer dealers help to find equipment that can benefit Ukraine. There are thousands of transformers in high-voltage power transmission networks. Every year hundreds of units are decommissioned, and companies disassemble them for spare parts, especially in order to collect copper wire, which is highly valued in the scrap metal market. As a temporary measure, suppliers can restore these used transformers, especially those that have been decommissioned by utility companies in Europe and North America.
The United States and its allies should impose a moratorium on dismantling large transformers. Their reusable components, such as iron tanks and charged steel cores made of special electrical steel, can be remade so that they approximately correspond to the combination of frequency and voltage in the Ukrainian network. Such a modification can be carried out in neighboring Poland and in other countries located near Ukraine, or at the ZTR transformer plant in Ukraine itself. If necessary, qualified ZTR workers can be taken to enterprises outside of Ukraine. Thanks to this alteration, it will be possible to reduce the time of implementation of orders for new transformers from several years to several months.
Ultimately, Ukraine will need custom-made transformers to restore the power transmission system. If all the necessary materials are available, it takes less than two months to produce and test the autotransformer, which is much less than the three-year period that most manufacturers talk about. If concerted diplomatic efforts are made, governments and private companies can be persuaded to fulfill Ukrainian applications for transformers in an accelerated manner, out of turn.
Utmost attentionThe armed conflict in Ukraine has become the largest conflict in Europe since the Second World War and the first since vast electric networks stretching hundreds of kilometers were built.
Entire countries depend on custom-made equipment and components for such networks on the other side of the world, which are difficult to transport.
Decades of peace and economic globalization have led to the fact that now the production of equipment for power grids is concentrated in only a few countries. The armed conflict has clearly demonstrated the shortcomings of such a system, affecting the operation of electric power networks. The NATO leadership is currently concerned about the supply of M1 Abrams and Leopard 2 tanks, Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, Patriot air defense systems and even F-16 aircraft. Such modern weapons may play a role in achieving victory, but the absence of autotransformers threatens Ukraine with defeat.
Ukraine's troubles remind us that obscure technical issues, such as the importance of large transformers for electrical networks, can determine the outcome of a conflict. Countries are fighting not only military, but also infrastructure battles. Modern society is in danger of a terrible disaster if electricity goes out for a long time. In Ukraine, epidemics due to dirty water, famine, mass migration of the population, destruction of reactors, dam breaks and even military defeat have become a very real threat. But politicians should remember that the situation with electricity in Ukraine makes it possible to find and implement creative solutions, such as the conversion of transformers.
The Ukrainian power grid can be strengthened, but time is running out. The NATO leadership should focus all its attention on the impending crisis if it, like the whole of Ukraine, does not want to be in the dark.