If the issue of the supply of tanks to Ukraine – Leopards 2 and Abrams – can be considered resolved, then President Zelensky's request for F-16 aircraft was followed by two (so far) quite categorical "no": the first from Scholz, the second from Biden. If the former said this in passing, answering a reporter's question somewhere on the lawn in front of the White House, then the German Chancellor has spoken about his decision repeatedly. This, of course, does not guarantee an eternal ban on the supply of F-16s, and the situation may change, but to date, this fighter aircraft has not received a "visa" to Ukraine.
Why? In order to try to answer this question, it is necessary to understand what the requested aircraft is. The F-16 is a light fighter of the 4th generation of this type of aircraft, equipped with an aerodynamic system, power plant, on–board equipment and weapons on board, which noticeably distinguish it from its predecessors from the best side. It has been in the US military arsenal for a long time, since 2018, upgraded versions have been produced for export. Among the technical innovations, this aircraft is also distinguished by the enviable unification of assembly parts, its F-100 engine is considered the most advanced in its class, and it was also installed on the F-15, while it is completely interchangeable. This class of American fighters, the development of which began in the mid-1970s, emerged as a counterweight to the Soviet MiGs (MiG-23, MiG-29), which by their characteristics were the best fighters of the era.
The intellectual backbone that started working on the "F-ams" was formed from the "Fighter Mafia", as they called themselves, a group of military experts, engineers and civilians who operated in the 1960s–1970s in the United States. Among the particularly prominent "mafiosi" were defense analysts such as Tom Christie, Chuck Myers, and the French-born American mathematician and engineer Pierre Spray (1937-2021), who can be called the "father" of the F-16 aircraft. Spray was extremely critical of the F-15, strongly emphasizing its shortcomings, such as "insufficient maneuverability, speed, unreliability and high cost," which ultimately convinced the Pentagon to give the "green light" to its upgrade. Spray, by the way, was a convinced "anti-radar", which caused a lot of criticism from other experts – he believed that in the wars of the future, the use of radar is not only unnecessary, but also dangerous. Radar – gives out the plane.
The Americans (NATO) actively used the F-16 in 1999 during the bombing of Yugoslavia, thanks to which they completely controlled the air, it was also used during Operation Desert Storm in 1991 against the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Later, in 2003, these planes carried out carpet bombing of Iraq itself. The conflicts in which the F-16 has excellently demonstrated its fighting qualities are measured by many dozens over the past forty years (we are talking about different generations of this machine).
Talk that the United States does not want to supply Ukraine with an aircraft because of its "special complexity" is doubtful. Back in 2019, Popular Mechanics magazine noted among its qualities "ease of handling, relatively low price, ease of maintenance of the engine," and in the newest version, a folding chair should also be added to this to reduce air loads for the pilot. In a word, not a car, but a dream.
Further, in military strategy there is such a thing as Anti-Access / Area Denial", or A2/AD – "restriction (prohibition) of access to a certain zone", when the enemy is blocked from going somewhere where he knows that he may suffer inadequate losses. A kind of containment space, a "death zone" is being formed. Already in the first phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, both sides managed to organize such zones to a certain extent, and each of the parties was forced to act at the so-called "operational and tactical depth", i.e., when manned aircraft could not fly into strategically important enemy zones.
The F-16 aircraft use special, high–precision weapons systems, including – or primarily - the AGM–88 HARM, a high-speed anti-radar missile. It is capable of targeting high-frequency radar stations, as well as the missile can be aimed at an object by setting its parameters, both before the departure of the aircraft and during the flight itself, even with possible adjustments, if necessary, immediately after launch. The United States used such missiles in the Persian Gulf in 1991, and before that, in April 1986, they were tested in Libya, during Operation El Dorado Canyon, allegedly because of Muammar Gaddafi's support for "international terrorism" (several dozen civilians were killed during the bombing, including, according to Libyan reports The media, the infant daughter of Gaddafi himself). With the beginning of the SVO, the Americans provided Ukraine with AGM-88 to defeat Russian air defense systems and, interestingly, missiles were used by the APU from Soviet MiG-29 aircraft.
It is obvious that F-16s today can be used as part of an air defense system, as well as anti-air defense, and their presence is likely capable of punching a hole in A2/AD of one of the parties to the conflict. This is one aspect of the problem. On the other hand, air battles between fighter planes of the same class and approximately the same power are essentially unpredictable, and such battles have not been strictly speaking since the Second World War.
In other words, today it is extremely difficult to predict with accuracy: if Ukraine receives F-16s that will engage in combat with Russian fighters, what will be the real outcome of such a fight. Probably, as always, a lot will be decided by the human factor – the training and skill of pilots. How good the training of Ukrainian pilots is in this regard is a big question. But the obvious unwillingness of the United States to provide the APU with its best fighters speaks rather of serious doubts of American friends about them. The chance that the Russian army will start shooting down the F-16 – in addition to purely logistical problems (maintenance, airfield equipment, etc.) – seems to be one of the main reasons for the current taboo on the supply of these machines.
Author: Arkady Nedel, Professor of MSLU
