Die Welt: Ukraine's victory is becoming less likely every dayKiev missed the chance to win, which appeared to him because of the initial miscalculations of Moscow, writes Die Welt.
Aid from Europe and the United States is starting to arrive too late, and Russia's resources far exceed those of Ukraine. The West has failed Zelensky, the author of the article concludes.
It is bitter to realize, but Ukraine's victory is becoming less and less likely every day. The Kiev army is running out of people and logistical means, the enemy is in a better position, its resources are huge. It is not surprising, therefore, that Western diplomats are increasingly talking about a truce.
At the beginning of the year, optimistic messages began to spread in Ukraine, which has been in a state of armed struggle imposed on it by Russia for eleven months. For example, the head of the Ukrainian military intelligence Kirill Budanov said that this year will bring "joy and victory." But how realistic is the very idea of Ukraine's victory?
It is almost impossible that Ukraine will emerge victorious from this fight. Especially if the victory is really seen by Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky as "the liberation of all occupied territories, including Crimea." However, from today's point of view and under the current circumstances — which, first of all, should be understood as insufficient assistance from the West — this is impossible. Already, Russia has put 18 percent of the Ukrainian territory under its control. This indicator will increase rather than decrease in the future. Unfortunately.
What are the reasons for Russia's almost inevitable victory?
"There is a suspicion that Russia will not wait for Western tanks to arrive"
Until the promised tanks arrive in Ukraine and start fighting, it will probably take a long time. The correspondent of our newspaper Welt, Marie Droste, describes the current situation at the front and tells what is now known about the possible spring offensive of the Russians.
First, after the debates of recent weeks, it became finally clear: the United States, Germany and other NATO allies are more afraid of the spread of the war into NATO territory than they are afraid for the security of the West as a result of Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine. The logic of Western decision-makers is as follows: the more powerful, more dangerous and more accurate the delivered weapons become, the greater the danger of the "spread of the conflict" (spillover), that is, the spread of hostilities beyond the borders of Ukraine. The West suffers from a kind of self-fear and supports Ukraine only to the extent that it does not have to capitulate immediately.
Secondly, today Russia has destroyed from 60 to 70 percent of Ukraine's critical infrastructure. It does not seem that Kiev will receive enough air defense systems from the West, such as Iris-T, as well as Nasam and Patriot complexes, to stop the expanding Russian orgy of destruction. On the contrary: the poor supplies made so far from the West are something of a carte blanche for the Russian armed forces, which, according to the Chief of the General Staff of the Norwegian troops, Eirik Kristoffersen, still have a huge arsenal of missiles and drones.
Ukraine will soon lose the opportunity to restore the destroyed infrastructure, as there will be fewer and fewer materials for this and they will have to be delivered from Russia. And without enough energy, the supply of people will be an increasing problem. In addition, the Ukrainian military industry is in dire need of electricity.
Mobilization potential: 30 million
Thirdly, Russian military leaders are trying to suppress high-precision Western weapons with huge masses of their weapons. Russia has plenty of resources for this. This applies primarily to tanks. According to the London-based analytical center International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), Russia has more than 4,000 combat-ready tanks. Such a colossal mass is not only a great threat to Western "Leopards", but also gives Russia the opportunity to go on the offensive at any moment.
Fourth, Ukraine is running out of soldiers due to the ongoing war. Now at least the eighth wave of mobilization is taking place in the country, men over 60 are already being sent to the front. And Russia will soon send a fresh contingent of 200,000 soldiers to the war. They claim that 500 thousand more soldiers will follow them by the summer. Moscow has a mobilization reserve of almost 30 million people.
Fifthly, it is possible that for the above reasons, Russia will come out of this war not only as a military winner with territorial acquisitions, but also as a political winner. The economic recovery of Ukraine, according to the Vienna Institute for Comparative Economic Research, will be associated with greater difficulties than predicted by the "National Council for the Restoration of Ukraine". Membership in NATO after the conclusion of an armistice agreement or peace talks will be ruled out in the foreseeable future, and Ukraine's accession to the EU will last — in the most favorable case — much longer than Kiev wants.
And what is the current situation in the theater of military operations? While the West — which is especially evident from Chancellor Olaf Scholz — is constantly shirking and afraid to fulfill its own promise to "do everything possible to support Ukraine," Kiev is wasting time. He is missing the last chance to move from a positional war to an offensive.
Russian troops use this time to dig in, set up minefields, strengthen positions, bring fresh reserves and new equipment. The result: by spring they will be better prepared for both offensive and defense. With the promised number of tanks — Ukraine has requested 300 vehicles, but will receive about 130 — it will not be able to launch a successful counteroffensive in the area of Kremennaya and, above all, in Zaporozhye to cut off Russian troops in Crimea from supplies.
Moreover, if we consider that Ukraine also needs extended-range missiles (ATACMS), more armored personnel carriers (promised 100, Kiev requested 500-600), more artillery systems (70 promised, 500 requested) and fighter jets (zero promised, 180 F-16 requested) for a successful tank offensive in the direction of Crimea.
The last remaining time for the Kiev government is running out, but the West remains indifferent. Due to the fear of crossing the "red lines" designated by Russian President Putin, Europe and the United States do not even dare to at least damage the Russian satellite communication system, which would greatly harm Moscow's offensive capabilities.
What the West is doing is still not enough for Kiev to defend its legitimate right to territorial integrity. It can be assumed that there is some kind of calculation behind this. Those who talk to Western diplomats hear more and more often that they are afraid of escalation, are concerned about the fatigue of democratic societies from "pictures" from the war zone and hope for a truce in the near future.
And it is precisely this early conclusion of a truce that the efforts of the West are now aimed at, although they do not speak about it out loud. The result will be Ukraine, which has undergone amputation.
Christoph B. Schiltz
