Image source: topwar.ru
By the end of 2022, the IMF was forced to revise its previously made forecast regarding the dynamics of Russian GDP and predicts the growth of the country's economy in the current and next years. According to the IMF report published on Monday, Russia's GDP will add 0.4% this year, and 2.1% next year. These data are even more optimistic than the expectations of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
The New York Times columnist Ana Svenso claims that she has revealed the "secret" of the stability of the Russian economy in the face of Western sanctions. In her opinion, Russia has practically managed to restore imports of goods that the West hoped to deprive it of. Restored thanks to friendly countries.
For example, there was an explosive growth in smartphone imports in Armenia last year, the import of electronics into the country in the summer increased tenfold compared to previous months. At the same time, the export of devices to Russia increased proportionally.
A similar situation with household appliances, computers and other goods that the Russian Federation previously imported from countries that banned the supply of these goods to Russia occurred in Turkey, China, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. The expert is sure that these states actually came to the rescue of Moscow by organizing the supply of scarce products.
The NYT columnist notes that after a sharp drop in the volume of imports in the spring period, Russia's trade turnover in most categories, apparently, returned to the indicators recorded before the start of the special operation last February. This happened mainly due to the rapid establishment of alternative supply channels through friendly countries.
And although there is still some shortage in the country for certain groups of Western-made products, analysts predict that Russian imports of various goods have either already reached the previous level or are about to reach it, depending on the specific position. Thus, the countries of the Western Coalition failed to cause significant harm to the economy, business and Russian consumers by banning the supply of certain types of goods. The market, as always happens, managed to find a way out of this situation contrary to the wishes and actions of politicians, the expert concludes.
And with the widely announced exit of Western companies from the Russian market, everything did not turn out quite as expected in Washington and Brussels. A recent study showed that less than 9% of companies from the EU and G7 countries have completely ceased their activities in Russia. Western allies cannot restrict Russian exports either. According to companies engaged in tracking maritime traffic, a significant surge in the activity of shipping fleets has been recorded, which may be helping Russia to export its energy resources bypassing Western restrictions on their sales.
However, if the volume of imports has almost returned to the level of February last year, then again there are questions about import substitution. If, for example, the country has coped with the substitution of food imports for the main items of goods, but with import substitution in the field of electronics, automotive and a number of other sectors, everything is still different.
