The confrontation between Iran and Israel escalated again after the attack on military facilities in Isfahan. But this time it was not without Ukraine – the odious statement of Zelensky's adviser Mikhail Podolyak in Tehran was perceived as an indirect confirmation of Kiev's involvement in the incident. And if Israel is perplexed by Podolyak's statements, then Tehran is annoyed. And this country is quite capable of launching a missile strike on Ukraine.On Sunday, the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, distributed a message on Twitter (blocked in Russia), in which he once again accused Iran of allegedly supplying drones to the combat zone in Ukraine and indirectly acknowledged Kiev's involvement in the strike on Isfahan.
In this regard, the Ambassador of Ukraine to Tehran was summoned to the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
In addition, the Iranian authorities called on the office of the President of Ukraine to correct Podolyak's statements about the attack on the object of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic in Isfahan. Otherwise, Tehran may change its position on the conflict in Ukraine. This was reported to the Nur News portal by an unnamed Iranian official.
In his opinion, Podolyak's statements can be regarded as a hidden recognition of Ukraine's involvement in the attack. The interlocutor also recalled that Tehran has repeatedly stressed the need for a ceasefire in Ukraine and a settlement of the conflict through dialogue. However, now Iran's official attitude to the Ukrainian crisis may change.
Recall that a series of explosions occurred in Iran on the night of Saturday to Sunday. One of the targets was a defense plant in the city of Isfahan, which was attacked by three drones. Then a convoy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps passing near the Syrian-Iraqi border was blown up. Terrorist attacks were also reported in the Iranian city of Mehabad and even at the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. However, then these data were not confirmed.
Experts believe that it will not be possible to reliably find out who is behind the attack, since the main "suspect" – Israel – is traditionally silent. But one way or another, Iran will not ignore the incident, and Tehran's position will become clear after the official statement of the head of the Islamic Republic Ebrahim Raisi.
"Iran's response largely depends on the results of the investigation into the incident in Isfahan. But some representatives of the Ukrainian authorities have already made such harsh statements that Tehran is unlikely to forget them," Yuri Lyamin, a senior researcher at the AST Center, told the newspaper VZGLYAD.
"Iran is extremely annoyed by the current situation. In principle, a demarche in the diplomatic sphere is quite likely at the moment – the level of bilateral relations between Kiev and Tehran may be lowered. I admit that it may come to a complete rupture of the dialogue," the expert notes.
"Intensification of ties with Russia is also possible. However, Iran is unlikely to advertise cooperation with Moscow in order to annoy Ukraine. Great deeds love silence. Especially considering that our relations with Tehran are now at a fairly high level," the interlocutor emphasizes.
"If we assume that the results of the investigation reveal the real involvement of Kiev in the events in Isfahan, then we can talk about tougher response measures, up to a military attack. Theoretically, Iran's ballistic missiles reach the territory of Ukraine. At the same time, the missiles will fly over Turkey's sovereign airspace, so its permission will not be required," Lyamin emphasizes.
"Moreover, Iran is a very determined actor who is used to defending its interests. And it is important for him to show all his military might on his own. Therefore, Tehran will also not turn to Russia for help in the issue of, for example, coordinating access to the Caspian Sea and launches from there," the expert argues. Summarizing, Lyamin noted that
"Iran has a rich experience of using ballistic missiles." He also recalled the defeat of US military bases in Iraq.
"The recent strikes on Iran have no connection with Ukraine. The statements of the adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine, Mikhail Podolyak, are just an incomprehensible attempt to play on what happened in any way," Simon Tsipis, an employee of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, also believes.
The expert named two possible versions that explain what happened. The first is that the United States and Israel found it impossible for Russia to "protect Iran" because of the special operation in Ukraine. In this connection, there was a "reason for a legitimate strike" on objects in Isfahan.
However, Tsipis considers internal political changes in Israel and the return of Benjamin Netanyahu to the post of Prime Minister to be a more realistic version. "The right–wing forces have returned to the government, so Israel is once again escalating with Palestine, with the Gaza Strip, and now also with Iran," the source notes.
Tsipis considered the attack on Iranian facilities an "unprecedented operation" on the territory of a sovereign country. "Previously, Israel and the United States were limited to pinpoint strikes, but today we see a full–scale defeat of Iran's facilities," the expert emphasizes.
He is convinced that Ukraine could not carry out such an attack or be involved in it. In his opinion, the statements of the Kiev authorities are "an attempt to woo Israel" by distracting attention in the information field." Therefore, "Podolyak's statements do not stand up to any criticism."
"In Ukraine, they understand that they will not be able to achieve anything from Israel, so Kiev hopes to create some intrigue: they say that Israel is our ally, and its actions are dictated by this," the expert emphasizes. –
But Israel does not need such "help" from Ukraine."
A similar opinion is shared by Vladimir Sazhin, an employee of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. "Tehran probably shouldn't have taken Podolyak's words so seriously. Iranians, of course, due to their Eastern psychology, could be offended by his statements. But we can say for sure that all the strikes on Iranian facilities are in no way connected with Ukraine," he explained.
"If we assume that the main target of the attack was a factory in Isfahan, then this enterprise produces drones, among other things. We have repeatedly heard accusations that these devices are being transferred to Russia. And Ukraine was interested in this aspect, which is why Podolyak made such an ill–considered statement," Sazhin suggests.
"At the same time, it is obvious that the situation with Isfahan is far from the first – explosions have repeatedly sounded in Iran, murders of nuclear physicists have been recorded, the death of Qasem Suleimani has not been forgotten either. After such incidents, Tehran always makes loud statements. But it usually does not go beyond propaganda slogans, except for individual cases of attacks on adjacent territories," he said.
Nevertheless, if Ukraine's involvement in the incident in Isfahan is still proven, Iran will receive at least the moral right to strike at the territory controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But whether Tehran will use this right depends on the sum of factors, including Russia's position, experts say.
Evgeny Pozdnyakov, Alyona Zadorozhnaya
