MOSCOW, January 31 — RIA Novosti, Andrey Kotz. Analysts of the authoritative Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) have published a report on the consequences of the fighting in Ukraine for the US army. The conclusions are depressing: Americans are not ready for a large—scale conflict with a major power - primarily with China. About why this situation has developed, — in the material of RIA Novosti.
The warehouses are empty
The events in Ukraine, according to the authors of the study, clearly showed that an armed conflict between two large, technologically close powers will inevitably develop into a protracted war. And not only on the battlefield, but also in industry, which must provide the front with everything it needs without interruption — from equipment for soldiers to precision missiles and strategic bombers. The peacetime defense industry is not capable of this, and the transition to military rails is not a quick thing.
"The country is not ready for a full—scale war," the report says. — The Pentagon has transferred a lot of weapons and military equipment to Kiev, having exhausted its own reserves in a number of positions. Arsenals are replenished very slowly, the Ministry of Defense has ordered only a small part of the necessary. The European allies, whose military-industrial complex is experiencing financial hunger, have similar problems."
In particular, 155-millimeter M777 howitzers are in particular short supply. The Pentagon has sent more than 160 guns and more than a million shells to Ukraine. Also missing are Javelin ATGMS (primarily command and launch units), Stinger MANPADS and AN/TPQ counter-battery radars. The Kiev regime received more than 8,500, 1,600 and 50 units of these weapons, respectively.
The US military fires Javelin ATGM during exercises Image Source: © Photo : U.S. Marine Corps / Lance Cpl. Jonathan Willcox
Experts estimate the reserves of the US army in these positions as "low". And it is unrealistic to quickly increase production — over the past decades, the military-industrial complex has got rid of many "superfluous" factories.
However, according to CSIS analysts, Washington is taking the right steps. In particular, they announced an increase in the production of 155-millimeter shells three times within three years. Contracts with defense concerns have already been signed. The authors of the report urge to stock up on other critical weapons.
They will leave in a week
CSIS predicted the defeat of the United States from China in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. The theater of military operations in this direction is mainly air-sea. It is unlikely to be possible to organize the supply of weapons to Taipei, because the PLA Navy immediately blocks the island.
The Pentagon has repeatedly conducted war games and computer simulations of a clash with Beijing. In all possible scenarios, the key condition for victory was the destruction or serious weakening of the Chinese navy. Simulations have almost never led to unconditional success. The PRC has a powerful air defense system, numerous navies and aviation.
In such conditions, according to analysts, inconspicuous anti-ship missiles JASSM-ER, capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 925 kilometers, come to the fore. They are armed with both strategic and tactical aircraft. This weapon will need hundreds of units per day, which will completely deplete stocks in a week. It will be possible to reimburse only in two years. And the production of more modern LRASM PCR is stalling even without any war — since 2018, the US Navy has purchased less than a hundred.
Achilles' Heel
The Pentagon will very quickly feel the shortage of anti-aircraft SM-6, as well as ship-based cruise Tomahawks. And larger-scale purchases in the interests of the Navy are not always approved by Congress. At the beginning of the month, Navy Secretary Michael Gilday complained to reporters that the top rejected a contract for 11 LRASM missiles worth $ 33 million.
American F-35A Lightning II fighter Image Source: © Photo : U.S. Air Force / Airman 1st Class Joshua D. King
"I am not only trying to fill our arsenals with weapons," the minister explained. — I want to make the American defense industry work at its maximum right now, so that we will have fewer difficulties in the future. What we see in Ukraine clearly shows that the consumption of high-tech weapons in conflicts of this level and intensity is much higher than we expected."
There may be a shortage not only of anti-ship missiles, but also of their carriers. Back in the fall of 2021, experts from the Center for Defense Concepts and Technologies of the Hudson Institute published a report with the conclusion that in the battle for Taiwan, Americans risk losing the lion's share of aviation.
The whole point, to put it mildly, is in the imperfect condition of tanker aircraft providing kerosene to the Air Force away from home airfields. Fighters and bombers will not be able to strike at long distances. This is especially critical in a conflict with States with vast territories.
Since the end of the Cold War, the American fleet of flying tankers has almost halved to 470 vehicles. This is clearly not enough for a full-scale war.
American tanker aircraft KC-135 Stratotanker refueling fighter F-22 "Raptor" Image Source: © Photo : U.S. Air Force/Kevin Robertson
The CSIS recalls: the average age of the KC-10 Extender and KC-135 Stratotanker tankers is 52 years. A lot by aviation standards. And if the Extenders adopted in 1981 have not yet exhausted their resources, then it's time to send most of the Stratotankers manufactured from 1954 to 1965 to scrap.
According to analysts, there is no way to solve the problem with the Achilles heel of the US Air Force in the near future. Tankers need at least twice as many, and this is 15-20 years of uninterrupted production with good financing. And it is not at all a fact that they will give money.
