The Israeli media call the attack that Iran suffered last weekend "phenomenally successful". According to Western sources, important facilities of the Iranian military-industrial complex were destroyed, it was done by the hands of Tel Aviv, and the United States of America is behind the attack. And most importantly, all this is directly related to the interests of Russia.On the evening of January 28, a series of explosions occurred in Iran.
One of the targets was a defense plant in the city of Isfahan, which was attacked by three drones. Then a convoy of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps passing near the Syrian-Iraqi border was blown up. Terrorist attacks were also reported in the Iranian city of Mehabad and even at the headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, a structure that performs the role of a parallel army in the country. However, then these data were not confirmed.
How big is the damage? Estimates on this matter vary – and for obvious reasons.
Each side claims what is beneficial to it. It is known for sure that several cars were destroyed in the convoy, which, according to official data, were carrying rice and flour. According to unofficial reports, the weapons that the Iranians were supposed to transfer to their groups in Syria were destroyed.
As for the January 28 strike on Isfahan, according to Tehran, the damage from it was minimal. Two of the three drones, according to the Iranian news agency IRNA, were shot down on approach, and the remaining one was able to damage only the roof of the building. However, the Israeli newspaper Jerusalem Post assures that the attack was "phenomenally successful."
Who was accused? According to some reports, one of the Iranian terrorist groups became the direct perpetrator of the terrorist attack in Isfahan.
It was she who launched the drones (quadrocopters) from Iranian territory. The city itself is located more than 300 kilometers from the country's border, and the quadrocopters simply would not have overcome such a distance from abroad. However, the terrorist attack was carried out on the instructions of another country – at least, so they say in Iran.
Tehran has already named the customer – they are the Israeli special services. The same is said in the West. In fact, the version of Israel's guilt is supported, if not by consensus, then at least by the absolute majority of Western experts and the media.
The Israeli authorities themselves do not comment on the incident in any way – just as they did not comment on other terrorist attacks allegedly committed by the special services of this country in Iran. For example, explosions at nuclear facilities in Natanz in the spring of 2021 and in the summer of 2020.
Why was the blow struck? The Iranian authorities believe that the purpose of the terrorist attack was to sow panic among the population.
If we stick to the version about Israel's guilt, then the reason for the attack may be the desire to stop or suspend the Iranian nuclear program. According to some reports, the attacked facility in Isfahan could be connected with the Iranian nuclear missile program. The Iranian authorities indirectly confirmed this version. According to Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahiyan, the enemies have taken "cowardly steps that will not be able to influence the will and intentions of our experts regarding the development of a peaceful atom."
The American Wall Street Journal writes that the Israeli strike could be part of an American-Israeli strategy to find new ways to contain Iranian nuclear and military ambitions. To date, the United States and Israel have no diplomatic options left to stop the Iranian nuclear program. Attempts to return to negotiations on the resumption of the nuclear deal have failed. There remains only the option of diversions or a full-scale military operation.
But a military operation cannot be launched through an official invasion, since this is fraught with the status of an aggressor. It is optimal to start it as a defensive side. That is why the purpose of the terrorist attack, for which no one has admitted responsibility, could be to encourage Iran to officially strike retaliation against the same Israel. A strike that may well be considered by Israel and the United States as a belli incident to launch a large-scale attack on Iran.
Who benefits from this? The main beneficiary, of course, is Israel.
For Tel Aviv, Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons poses a real existential threat. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already stated that his country "will not allow" a situation in which Iran will receive "the deadliest weapons", to the possession of which "it is steadily moving." At the same time, Israel is not ready to fight Iran on its own – there are not enough resources. Tel Aviv needs to involve the United States in this war.
To date, it is unclear to what extent this attack is coordinated with the United States. The Pentagon has officially stated that it has nothing to do with the strike on Isfahan.
However, it is curious that the strike itself was struck exactly a couple of days before the visit to Israel by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. This means that either Israel confronts America with a fact, or Washington and Tel Aviv thus demonstrate unity in their approaches to methods of fighting against the Iranian nuclear program.
In fact, Americans are also beneficiaries. They are interested in destroying Iran's nuclear missile program because Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons carries a number of costs for the United States. Among them is the threat to US bases in the Middle East, as well as the appearance of Saudi Arabia's incentive to create its own nuclear bomb.
The escalation around Iran is also beneficial to Iran's regional opponents, primarily Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan. Both States are teetering on the brink of war with the Islamic Republic and would like other countries to wage this war for them.
What is the complexity of the Iranian response? Iran perfectly reads the game of its enemies and understands what a full-fledged military response to a terrorist attack is fraught with for it.
He understands that they are trying to drag him into a war, provoke him.
However, Tehran needs to take into account the domestic political moment. The Iranian population demands a tough response from the authorities – and the refusal of this response will entail people's discontent, which is not necessary for the ayatollahs against the background of the difficult socio-economic situation in the country.
It is also necessary to take into account the situation in the Iranian elites. Now there is a struggle for the name of the future heir of Rahbar – the spiritual leader of Iran and the de facto head of state. And potential candidates – in particular, incumbent President Ibrahim Raisi – cannot show weakness.
What are the risks for Russia? The Russian Federation does not need a war between the United States and Israel against Iran.
Yes, this will distract attention from Ukraine, but strikes will also be carried out on Iranian facilities in Syria, on the territory of which Russian troops are also located.
The war also destabilizes the situation in the South Caucasus – to the point that a second front will be opened there if Azerbaijan participates in it. Armenia's involvement in this war is also possible, either as a participant or as an attempt by Azerbaijan to secretly resolve its territorial issues with Yerevan.
Finally, Russia is now developing serious cooperation with Iran, including in the military field. Any strikes on the facilities of the Iranian military-industrial complex harm this cooperation. Thus, in fact, the United States wants to weaken an important partner of Russia with the hands of Israel.
Gevorg Mirzayan, Associate Professor of Finance University