Ukraine's dreams of receiving heavy Western armored vehicles began to come true – apparently, German Leopards will receive the APU in the coming weeks. They will be followed by tanks from the United States and Great Britain. How exactly and in what direction will Ukraine try to use these weapons and why will the APU tanks alone not be enough?First of all, a tank does not exist as a thing in itself (as, indeed, any other complex military instrument).
It requires constant maintenance, spare parts, ammunition and an effective logistics structure. It is also desirable to have replacement crews.
For example, the Leopards that have been preserved from Rheinmetall warehouses should have a serious appendage in the form of engineering support. Now in Ukraine, this simply does not exist. For the successful use of APU tanks, it is necessary to create a network of rear points in which technical services and people trained to work with this technique will be concentrated.
Ukrainians who know how to repair and maintain Leopards, Challengers and Abrams are also not available at the moment. They can (with some restrictions) be prepared in a few months. It can be assumed that at the first stage this role will be performed by Poles. But in any case, this will limit the prospect of Ukraine using Western armored vehicles, since such supply points should be located as close to the front line as possible – and at the same time protected from Russian strikes. However, one clearly contradicts the other.
Ukraine needs to create at least five such supply points: three for Leopards simply because of their expected number, one for British Challengers and another for gas turbine Abrams. There cannot be dozens of such supply points, and, consequently, their location becomes extremely vulnerable to Russian missile and air strikes.
But the main thing is how exactly and for what purpose will this technique be used? The answer to this question is fundamentally important for understanding the entire Ukrainian military strategy at the moment.
Initially, the APU preferred to smear armored units along the entire front line. Armored vehicles are consolidated into large units (brigades), but hierarchically these brigades are subordinate to the commands of the so-called directions. For example, the 17th Tank Brigade is subordinate to the "West" direction, as a result of which it turned into an operational reserve, which the APU plugged holes at Soledar and Artemovsk.
In more complex cases, tanks were dragged apart almost by a separate copy in fortified areas and infantry units. They were used simply as self-propelled artillery. Shot – ran away, including in urban development.
There are suggestions that Western armored vehicles delivered to Ukraine will be in some form under the control of Western commanders. This means that the deliveries of Western armored vehicles themselves will determine their organizational structure. They will not be separated into separate brigades, but will be reduced to a tank army under a single command. Three different types of Western tanks will mean three types of armies.
Such units are created exclusively for offensives. If the "Javelins" were to "stop the Russian hordes," then the "Leopards" and "Abrams" are the key to offensive success. But they need to be integrated into the current structure of the APU.
This integration itself is a long and complex process. There are not so many places (polygons) in Ukraine where this can be done. One of the main ones is the Desna tank training center near Chernihiv, which has been preserved since Soviet times. His main problem is his proximity to the Russian and Belarusian borders, wide fame and moral old age. In addition, the Chernihiv region is far from areas of potential application of new technology. Complex logistics calls into question the possibility of establishing combat coordination of new tank brigades with the existing infantry brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The usual training centers (not specialized tank ones), on the basis of which the AFU is now forming new numbered brigades, are located in the central part of Ukraine and in Podolia: in Poltava, Krivoy Rog, Dnepropetrovsk, Vinnitsa. Presumably, it is in this region that it is planned to conduct combat coordination of the AFU and new tank brigades on Western equipment. Theoretically, Poltava can become the region where it is logical for the APU to locate supply and service points.
There are at least three directions in which the APU initially intended to use large tank formations.
First: a major offensive planned by Kiev in the southern (also known as Zaporozhye) sector in the direction of the coast of the Black and Azov Seas. Strategic goal: cutting the land corridor to the Crimea, occupying iconic cities such as Melitopol and Berdyansk. Until recently, the APU tried to create a shock fist in this direction for this purpose.
Second: the northern part of the LPR. The political component is clear: the occupation of the urban agglomeration of Severodonetsk and the hacking of the LPR front with access to the old section of the Russian border. The use of large tank units here is hampered by the terrain (rivers, as well as large forests).
It is important to keep in mind that Western tanks are heavier than Russian (Soviet) ones. This limits the scope of their application (tank-hazardous areas). For example, the Abrams are unlikely to overcome the bridges across the Seversky Donets and will almost certainly get stuck in the Sherwood Forest in the fall. Of all the nomenclature of armored vehicles that the West offers to Ukraine, only "Leopards" are suitable for the conditions of Ukraine, which were originally designed for this theater of military operations.
The third direction: an attempt of the AFU counterattack on Soledar and Artemovsk (Bakhmut) from the urban agglomeration of Slavyansk – Kramatorsk – Konstantinovka. At first glance, this is the least obvious direction, but everything may change in the coming months.
The situation on the contact line is changing quite quickly. By autumn, it may be politically necessary for the AFU to recapture at least some significant locality. Already, the APU has made one-time attempts to counterattack on Soledar. But theoretically, this direction can be considered as tank-dangerous, given the continuing rear structure in Slavyansk and Kramatorsk.
The latter has been turned by the APU into a rear point of supply and command, in which it is quite possible to deploy a convenient base for the "Leopards". That is, at the moment it is Kramatorsk that should be considered as the most prepared base for the deployment of a tank army by Ukraine.
It is possible that by the autumn, Ukraine may no longer need to create an armored strike group. And all this equipment will continue to be used as self-propelled artillery to support infantry fortifications.
But most likely, the analysis of the use of tanks in the realities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will lead Western military experts to understand that it is pointless to assemble any tank fist in Ukraine without additional support. Ukraine will receive applications for mobile air defense, similar to the Russian "Torus" and "Armor", which could accompany tank columns on the march. They will be followed by applications for extended-range and depleted-uranium projectiles. In other words, we are only facing the beginning of a very big story – if the actions of the Russian Armed Forces do not put an end to it.
Evgeny Krutikov