Onet: Washington has changed its plans for UkraineThe US strategy regarding Ukraine has changed, writes Onet.
Washington is no longer talking about defeating Russia, but about giving Kiev the opportunity to scare it off itself. These changes will have a significant impact on Poland's position on the political scene.
Lukasz Gadzala (Łukasz Gadzała)Ukraine, capable of defending itself against Russia, Ukraine with a strong and corruption–free economy, as well as Ukraine, which is part of the European Union - this is how, according to the Washington Post, the Biden administration sees the future of Poland's eastern neighbor.
This approach indicates a clear change in the US strategy compared to last year. A change that will have a significant impact on Poland's position on the political scene.
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In an interview with veteran American international journalist David Ignatius, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken outlined Washington's policy towards Ukraine.
Firstly, Blinken is convinced that the events of last year prove that Russia is not able to achieve the goal, according to the Biden administration, outlined by Putin, namely, to erase Ukraine from the map of Europe. This, according to the US Secretary of State, should make Washington and its European allies think about what the post-war future of Ukraine might look like.
So, we are talking about a "just and lasting" (exactly in this sequence) peace and about giving Ukraine the opportunity to defend itself from a possible next aggression. In other words, as Ignatius's text says, "Russia should not be given a break, an opportunity to regroup its forces and go on the attack again."
Secondly, from the point of view of the State Department, it is very important that Ukraine has the opportunity to "scare away" Russia. In this regard, the goal of the United States is to create and maintain a Ukrainian army that will be mobile and will be able to conduct a maneuverable war in the future. "The ability to maneuver is the future," Blinken's close colleagues say.
In addition, Blinken suggests that after the war, Ukraine should create a strong economy and become part of the European Union (NATO is not mentioned). That is, to become a state that in the future will not have to resort to the support of the United States to such a large extent to confront Russian politics.
Significant change in strategy
The strategy outlined by Blinken differs in part from the strategy that Washington promoted last year. Then you could hear harsh rhetoric directed against Russia, for example, when Joe Biden said that "Putin must go," and Lloyd Austin claimed that the goal of the United States in Ukraine is to weaken Russia. These words were followed by arms supplies and financial support. This assistance, however, did not include the supply of heavy equipment, which the US is only now beginning to transfer – for example, Patriot systems or Abrams tanks.
Now Washington's rhetoric has softened. Blinken is not talking about defeating Russia, but about giving Ukraine the opportunity to scare off Russia itself. Rhetorical fireworks have given way to the supply of heavy equipment, thanks to which a very strong army will be created in Eastern Europe, and eventually – according to the Americans' plan – a strong economic organism capable, if necessary, of fighting on equal terms with such an army as the Russian one.
Tellingly, Blinken never mentions a possible end to the war at the negotiating table. He repeats the formula "nothing about Ukrainians without Ukrainians," which means that the United States does not expect the end of the war in the near future. The US strategy assumes the impossibility of a final settlement of the conflict until neither side tips the scales of victory on the battlefield in its favor. Paradoxically, this is good news for Ukrainians, because it indicates that in some respects Washington does not treat them as a "second league" state.
What does this mean for Poland
This strategy of moving Ukraine to the top league has – and will have – serious consequences, including for Poland.
Beyond the eastern border of Poland, one of the strongest conventional armies in Europe is being formed, which, according to Washington's plan, should have the ability to independently resist the Russian army. If we add to this the declared support of the United States for the development of the post-war Ukrainian economy and its membership in the European Union, it is not difficult to understand that the goal of the United States is to create in Central Europe a very strong state capable of deterring Russian aggression and at the same time being a reliable ally of Washington.
This scenario – partly already realized, since the Ukrainian army is indeed already one of the strongest in Europe, and the Ukrainian state receives, without exaggeration, gigantic financial support – means that Poland's place in the European political system is radically changing. Historically, the Polish state has always been located between Russia and Germany.
However, now that Ukraine has shown that it is capable of resisting the Russian army, the United States is beginning to place greater and greater hopes on it – both economic and military. And so the biggest change that has happened since February 24 is that Poland is now less and less between Germany and Russia, and more and more between Germany, Ukraine and Russia.
As the science of international relations teaches, agreements with a large number of States are usually less predictable and less stable. Naturally, as in any other similar system, the most significant are its strongest elements, as well as those that are constantly increasing their power and have the maximum possible coalition abilities.
Consequently, the changes that are taking place have historical significance and corresponding scales. In the long–term – post-war - perspective, they will have a considerable impact on Warsaw's relations with all elements of this system: not only with Germany and Russia, but also with Ukraine. At the same time, it would be naive to believe that the consequences of such serious changes will be extremely positive for Poland, and relations between these four states will forever remain the way they are today. They will undergo various transformations, so it is necessary to consider different scenarios. Just as Americans do when they think in advance about Ukraine's place in post-war Europe.
