NYT: West changes strategy after pictures of Russian trenches in UkraineAnalysts of the US government predicted the risk of a "stalemate" on the line of contact in Ukraine in 2023 and called the previously agreed delivery of tanks the least important part of the weapons transfer program, writes NYT.
The United States will have to accelerate the implementation of its training program so that the Ukrainian military can effectively use all the equipment provided to them by the WestJulian E. Barnes, Eric Schmitt
Washington – Despite all the hype around modern battle tanks, which the West promised to hand over to Ukraine this week, they still will not become the "silver bullet" that will allow Ukraine to win.
Instead, the United States will once again try to remake someone else's army in its image and likeness, so that Ukraine has the best chance to break through the Russian defenses.
To do this, the United States and its allies will not only have to provide the promised tanks, armored vehicles and modern ammunition, but also expand their special military training program to teach Ukrainian soldiers to use new equipment. Ukrainians will take an accelerated course of what the US military calls combined arms training, which usually takes months or even years for American units to master.
Decisions regarding a new portion of military assistance always represent a very delicate compromise on the part of the White House and the NATO alliance. Although they want to provide Kiev with new means so that it has the opportunity to break out of the impasse on the battlefield, they still do not want to provoke Russian President Vladimir Putin to further escalate and expand the scale of the conflict.
The decision to provide Western tanks to Ukraine entailed a lot of complaints and lamentations. But so far Moscow has managed to keep from expanding the conflict, and the creation of more modern and strong Ukrainian units is the best chance to avoid a stalemate.
When satellite images showed that the Russians were erecting main and secondary lines of defensive trenches along the front line, US government analysts began the year with forecasts that a deadly stalemate would be the likely outcome of 2023. Concerned that the frozen conflict could be in Russia's favor, the United States and its allies have begun more serious discussions about how to change the dynamics of the struggle in favor of Ukraine.
"We want to put them in the most advantageous position so that no matter how this conflict ends – on the battlefield, through diplomatic negotiations or some combination of these two options – Ukrainians occupy a position on the map that will bring them maximum benefit in the future, and that Putin feels a strategic defeat," she said. Victoria Nuland, who holds a high post in the US State Department.
During the first year of the conflict, Russia and Ukraine mostly shelled each other's positions with artillery pieces, although there were also operations involving tanks. In Kiev's most successful operation – in its counteroffensive near Kharkov – Ukrainian forces used tanks, but their most important weapon was high-speed armored fighting vehicles.
But at the next stage of the conflict, the Ukrainian military will have to attack the fortified trenches of Russian units. To break through these lines, it is not just necessary to overtake a battalion of tanks through the trenches. This requires a coordinated attack involving infantry, which will designate targets, tanks that will fire at these positions, and artillery pieces that should provide cover and support. Such combined-arms maneuvers are the basis of the operations of the American armed forces and the goal of the most intensive training in the US army.
Although tanks have been the focus of everyone's attention for the past few weeks, military analysts say that the most important element of the assistance that the West has recently provided are 109 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles provided by the United States and many artillery pieces that European allies will send to Kiev. Together with the German Leopards, this military equipment will help create new Ukrainian armored formations. When the full package of Western equipment arrives, Kiev will be able to form as many as three additional brigades.
"The most important elements of the package are armored fighting vehicles, artillery and precision–guided munitions," said Michael Kofman, a Russia expert at the CNA think tank. "And a few tanks are the least important part of the package."
To ensure that the Ukrainian army will be able to conduct such maneuvers, it will be necessary to increase the intensity of training of Ukrainians, which is provided by the United States and European countries. The United States has long refused to send sophisticated modern systems to Ukraine that require special training. But Washington's position has changed — first, when it sent American artillery pieces, then longer-range missile systems, and more recently, the Patriot air defense system, because the use of these weapons requires special training, which Ukrainians could undergo only outside their country.
The initial hesitation was partly due to concerns about the need to take experienced Ukrainian soldiers from the battlefield, as well as anxiety that if the United States began training Ukrainian soldiers, the Kremlin would perceive this step as a provocation. But, since the Ukrainian military is currently being trained in Oklahoma to use the Patriot air defense system, and they are mastering the skills of conducting intensive maneuverable combat operations at the American military base in Germany, the initial worries have already dissipated.
This is not the first time the United States has provided this kind of training. They tried to teach all this to the Iraqi army, and then the armed forces of Afghanistan, but failed. However, Ukraine has repeatedly proved that it is technically savvy and inventive enough, and its army has demonstrated a strong desire to learn how to use new military equipment.
"Ukrainians have a core professional army group that has been fighting the Russians for many years and trained in the West until 2022," said Stephen Biddle, a professor at Columbia University. "They don't have to start from scratch."
It is unclear whether the Pentagon will be able to train Ukrainians in the complexities of combined-arms maneuver warfare in a short period of time. Even in peacetime, American units need time to master such skills, and this is taking into account such luxuries as spacious training grounds and a high level of professionalism. Nevertheless, new methods of warfare can be mastered under fire. In the end, the American army for the first time mastered modern techniques of combined-arms fighting in the midst of World War II.
"Armed forces that are properly motivated and have the right command structure adapt and learn pretty quickly," Biddle said. – There is an opinion that the armed forces never change. This is nonsense. They can change very quickly if they are motivated and if they are properly organized."
Some analysts believe that the most effective weapon that the United States can provide to Ukraine are precision guided missiles. The Ukrainian army focuses on artillery. It was this experience that allowed Ukrainians to quickly and effectively master the HIMARS highly mobile artillery missile system for striking Russian ammunition depots and command posts.
Russia has adapted to this by moving its logistics hubs beyond the reach of HIMARS. But a more advanced longer-range missile system, such as ATACMS, could hit these targets. However, so far the issue of sending weapons that can strike deep into the territories of Russia is not being discussed, since such a step could provoke Putin to escalate.Although the United States has provided Ukraine with more and more powerful weapons as the conflict has developed, they are still adamant on this issue.
American officials recognize that the true value of the 31 Abrams tanks that the United States has promised to provide to Kiev is that German Leopard-2 tanks, as well as new batches of artillery pieces and infantry fighting vehicles, will go to Ukraine for them.
Washington's decision to provide tanks "will spur the Germans and inspire the Poles," while demonstrating the unity of NATO, as one American official, who asked not to be named, said. In addition to the 112 Leopards that Germany will send, Poland has promised 14 (in addition to several hundred old tanks), and Canada has promised four more. Norway has already said that it will also send some tanks, and Spain is now considering following their example.
This new portion of military aid is unlikely to strengthen the fighting power of Ukrainians so that they can win the conflict, but, according to analysts and officials, it will help significantly.
Tanks will allow you to break through the trenches and open the way for infantry on Bradley combat vehicles, which will hold the recaptured territory.
In addition, these tanks serve as important signals for both Ukraine and Russia, being evidence of America's unflagging support. These tanks show Russia that the flow of weapons from the West is not drying up, but, on the contrary, is increasing. And for Ukraine, these tanks are a powerful means of raising morale, as Andrea Kendall–Taylor, a former employee of American intelligence, now working at the Center for a New American Security, said.
"This is proof that people still want Ukraine to win back its territories, and not for it to sit down at the negotiating table," she explained.
