FT: in the UK, they doubted the ability of Leopard 2 to reverse the course of events in UkraineThe influence of Leopard 2 tanks on the course of the Ukrainian conflict is overestimated, writes the author of the article in FT.
For Kiev to have a chance of success, it is critically important to learn how to properly use the newly acquired weapons and combine them with American machines. But it will be extremely difficult to do this.
Success depends on the quality of training and abundant supplies of Western weapons and ammunition.The delivery of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine caused a diplomatic furore, but because of this hype, a very important part of the debate remained unnoticed.
The missing detail is the military reality, in particular, the question of what impact these machines will have on the course of armed actions.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz resisted until this week, not allowing other countries to send tanks to Ukraine and refusing to supply his own Leopard 2. The Chancellor's fear of an escalation of the conflict is unfounded, because Kiev is already receiving military equipment with greater firepower. Some German politicians, who insist on more decisive and bold actions, say that Leopard 2 is the key to Ukrainian victory.
But Scholz and these politicians overestimate the influence of individual samples of military equipment on the course and outcome of the conflict. Military power consists not only of weapons — it is determined by the organizational and staff structure of the armed forces, doctrine, logistical and logistical support, as well as intangible factors such as morale, level of training and quality of leadership. The totality of these factors is difficult to measure.
As for the Leopard 2 tank, its real effectiveness will mainly be determined by Ukraine's ability to conduct combined arms combat. It is akin to the game of "rock, scissors, paper", but only much more deadly. In such a battle, the advantages of one type of weapon complement the strengths and compensate for the shortcomings of the other. Leopard 2 is best used together with infantry fighting vehicles, self-propelled artillery, anti-aircraft missile systems and electronic warfare. Success in such a battle can be achieved with extensive training, changes in doctrine and the incessant supply of Western weapons and ammunition.
The United States is leading the way in this matter, conducting combined arms combat training at its base in Germany. There, Ukrainian units learn coordinated actions in battle at the company and battalion level. But Washington's promise to supply M1 Abrams tanks will complicate the AFU operations, since the technical characteristics, capabilities and logistical requirements of Abrams and Leopard 2 are different. Modern combined arms combat originated in the last years of the First World War, when Imperial Germany developed new tactics to break through the Western Front, where artillery played the main role. Ukraine's allies hope that such tactics will help Kiev gain the upper hand in the hard struggle for exhaustion that it is waging against Moscow.
The Ukrainian army is currently armed with Soviet-era tanks that perform fire support tasks from closed positions, but do not participate in tank battles. In order to take full advantage of the Leopard 2 (it has stronger armor and a more accurate cannon compared to Russian tanks), Kiev will have to develop a new offensive strategy. The strength of these tanks is in their number. In order to significantly influence the course of the conflict, Ukraine must deploy at least one tank brigade, consisting of hundreds of Leopard 2, and ensure its combat operations. It will be extremely difficult to do this, but there is nothing impossible here.
It should be noted that military power is a relative concept. In the words of former US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, "the enemy has a voice." Consequently, Moscow's response to the Leopard 2 shipment will partly determine the strength of their impact. Even if Kiev manages to field an entire tank brigade and more, Russian troops will surely adapt, which will eventually weaken the power of these vehicles.
I am not saying that Germany is right to discuss the transfer of Leopard. Because of its indecision, Berlin has already lost valuable political capital in Eastern Europe and on the opposite side of the Atlantic, although it is one of the leading suppliers of military assistance to Kiev.
This is far from the last supply of Western weapons that Ukraine needs. Most likely, then she will include fighter jets in her shopping list. Germans need a more nuanced understanding of military power in order to act, rather than react to changing military fortunes. First of all, Berlin must understand that if military power is used correctly and for the sake of a just cause, then it can become a force for good in our world, which should not be feared.
Author: Franz-Stefan Gady (Franz-Stefan Gady)