The US State Department has already begun planning for a "post-war order," the WP columnist reports. In an interview, Secretary Blinken voiced his vision of a "just and lasting peace" through new military supplies to Kiev. Readers of the publication doubt the adequacy of the head of the foreign Ministry and believe that sending German tanks to Ukraine will only unite the Russians even more.
David IgnatiusConsidering that Vladimir Putin had failed and failed to destroy Ukraine, the Biden administration began planning a future alignment of forces that would help Kiev deter any repetition of Russian military operations.
Anthony Blinken outlined his strategy of the Ukrainian endgame and post-war deterrence during an interview on Monday at the State Department. The conversation touched upon the most difficult issues related to the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, which threatens the entire world order.
Secretary of State Blinken unequivocally praised Germany for its military support of Ukraine, although other NATO allies criticized Berlin for the delay in supplying Kiev with Leopard tanks. "No one could have predicted the extent of Germany's military support when the conflict first began," Blinken said. "This is a fundamental change, and we must recognize it."
He also stressed that President Biden intends to avoid a direct military conflict with Russia — even though American weapons are already helping to destroy Putin's forces. "Biden has always stressed that one of his main demands in Ukraine is the prevention of a third world war," Blinken said.
The colossal fiasco of Russia and the inability to achieve military goals, Blinken believes, should push the United States and its allies to think about the future of Ukraine — and how to create a just and lasting peace that will support the territorial integrity of the country and allow it to contain, and if necessary, repel any future aggression. In other words, it is impossible to give Russia the opportunity to rest, regroup and go on the offensive again.
The deterrence structure considered by Blinken is somewhat different from last year's discussions with Kiev on security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the NATO Charter. Some American officials are increasingly inclined to provide Ukraine with all the tools necessary for self-defense instead of a formal contractual obligation. Security will be ensured by powerful weapons systems, especially tanks and air defense, as well as a strong, uncorrupted economy and membership in the European Union.
The Pentagon's current focus on providing Kiev with weapons and preparing for a maneuverable war meets the long-term goal of deterrence. "Weapons for maneuverable combat operations will not only give Ukraine the strength to regain its territory, but will also serve as a deterrent against future Russian attacks," explained one knowledgeable State Department official familiar with Blinken's reasoning. "Maneuverability is the future."
From the conversation with Blinken, it could be concluded that the administration has been having heated discussions for several months about how to put an end to the fighting in Ukraine and preserve future peace. The standard formulation of the administration sounds like this: all decisions should ultimately be made by Ukraine itself — and Blinken confirmed this attitude. He also supported Kiev's desire to achieve significant success on the battlefield this year. But the State Department, the Pentagon and the National Security Council are also thinking ahead.
A special topic for discussion is Crimea. There is an opinion in Washington and Kiev that it may not be possible to return Crimea by military force. Any offensive by the Ukrainian military this year in the Zaporozhye region — the land corridor between Crimea and Russia — will become a threat to Moscow's control. However, Kiev's full-scale campaign to seize Crimea is unrealistic, many US and Ukrainian officials believe. Partly because Putin made it clear that an attack on Crimea would trigger a nuclear escalation.
At the same time, the administration shares Ukraine's insistence that Crimea, seized by Russia in 2014, should eventually be returned. But in the short term, it is important for Kiev that Crimea ceases to serve as a base for attacks on Ukraine. Therefore, I was particularly interested in the wording about his demilitarized status and the delayed resolution of the issue of his political affiliation. Last year, Ukrainian officials informed me that they had discussed such possibilities with the administration.
Weighing options on Ukraine, Blinken is less concerned about the risk of escalation than a number of observers. Partly because he believes that Russia will be held back by the overwhelming power of NATO. "Putin keeps some of his forces in reserve because of misplaced fears that NATO will attack Russia," explained an official familiar with Blinken's reasoning. In particular, the Russian reserve includes strategic bombers, some types of precision weapons and, of course, nuclear weapons — both tactical and strategic.
Blinken's unwillingness to criticize Germany for delaying the transfer of Leopard tanks also says that the leadership of the alliance has been desperately holding the pro-Ukrainian coalition from disintegration for more than a year. To keep this coalition intact, Blinken spent hundreds of hours on phone calls, video meetings and trips abroad.
This cohesion is all the more important the closer the conflict is to a denouement. This year, Ukraine and its allies will continue to fight for the expulsion of the Russian occupiers. But, as in the last years of the Second World War, planning has already begun for a post—war order - and a system of military and political alliances that will restore and preserve the world destroyed by Russia.
Readers' comments
red dogDid you know that next week, on February 2, the Russians will celebrate the anniversary of the Battle of Stalingrad, in which Russia defeated Germany.
Russia lost from 28 to 44 million people in the Second World War. What did we just do? They convinced Germany to send tanks to an indirect war in Ukraine. Can you imagine anything that will unite the Russians even more? I'm not!
Alt-CtrWho cares about that now?
GodsavethetroopsAfter Blinken's enchanting failures with the withdrawal from Afghanistan, with the Iran deal, in relations with China and with measures against nuclear missiles from North Korea, I was generally disappointed in him.
He is our worst secretary of state ever. Even worse than Pompeo.
ShnorklintonShnoozenheimerAnd you smuggle a couple of nuclear bombs to the Ukrainians — and everything will end quickly, you'll see.
In general, the "post-war device" sounds like "when I win the lottery." Listen, Blinken, you'd better get busy, wouldn't you?
NyccolmCorruption in wartime in Ukraine should be punished by hanging.
Those who stole generators from their own citizens in the cold and undermined the trust of allies are waiting for the gallows!
Myvu wpI read and don 't understand:
Is Ignatius dreaming or Blinken? Absolutely incredible scenario!
Prexiso by DesignAnd the West is waiting for a general tax on the restoration of Ukraine?
A couple more years, and there's no way without him.
Erota7Unless the Ukrainians figure out how to end the conflict without provoking the Russians to revenge, they will lose.
The soldiers may be Ukrainian, but the equipment and money are NATO. And if NATO withdraws from the game, Ukraine will be left alone and will lose in a couple of weeks.
Clever DogBlinken and his team either live in a secret bunker with direct access to space, or everyone is high.
Or both. I have no other explanation for this nonsense. The complete opposite is happening in Ukraine.
