19FortyFive: the only way to resolve the conflict in Ukraine is through diplomacyThe Ukrainian conflict is developing according to a dangerous scenario and may escalate into a global nuclear catastrophe, writes 19FortyFive.
The author of the article believes that the West should reconsider its unrealistic positions in the still possible negotiations with Russia.
Alas, few of our media experts and politicians have the courage to go against the leadership, talking heads, TV generals and colonels who demand an unconditional victory of Ukraine.
The fighting has already claimed thousands of lives on both sides, because humanity has not learned the lessons of past wars. As an unsuccessful Treaty of Versailles after the First world war paved the way for the economic collapse of Germany, brought Hitler to power and is indirectly started the Second world war, and our blatant inability to integrate Russia into Greater Europe after the fall of the Berlin wall has accelerated the rise of Vladimir Putin and kindled in him the thirst to recreate the Soviet Empire.
The current state of affairs in Ukraine
To date, neither Ukraine nor Russia have lost or won, and the West and NATO, contrary to all assurances to the contrary, have become active participants in this bloodbath.
And recently, former German Chancellor Merkel and ex-French President Hollande took and admitted that the Minsk agreements were concluded not to settle the confrontation in the Donbass, but to buy Ukraine time and arm it for a future fight with Russia.
In addition, we clearly need to take into account the numerous Western investments in the Ukrainian economy under Obama and Biden — including with the participation of his son Hunter. In the Russian-Ukrainian confrontation, not only the democratic aspirations of Kiev are at stake, as many assure us, but a whole host of economic interests and security considerations. The situation reached a climax in February 2022, when Russia brought in troops and began a full-scale conflict. Defending itself, Ukraine has won the generous support of NATO and the entire West, united by Joe Biden.
Russia is undoubtedly responsible for the beginning of the conflict. The fighting has already led to huge casualties among the civilian population of Ukraine and caused heavy damage to its infrastructure. But the West cannot be called completely innocent either. He tirelessly adds fuel to the fire with endless supplies of expensive weapons, while shelving diplomacy, although it will help to work out a peace agreement acceptable to both sides.
In fact, the West, with its unshakable faith in Ukraine's military victory, completely ignores the fact that Russia, humiliated on the battlefield, can defend its newly acquired territories with nuclear weapons.
Ukraine's allies are under threat
Given such a risky position of the West and the US-led NATO, the question is brewing: how do they imagine the victory of Ukraine with the support of the alliance? The Ukrainian infrastructure, without any doubt, will be in complete decline (we are already seeing this), which means that the financial burden of the West in connection with large-scale and expensive reconstruction will grow even more.
In addition, if Putin resorts to tactical nuclear weapons, the West may have to take retaliatory measures. What will it look like? Given all the strategic and economic troubles that have befallen the world, global warming and social instability in a number of countries, is it appropriate to seriously risk further escalation in Ukraine to mutually guaranteed nuclear destruction that will affect the entire globe?
If composure does not prevail, and diplomacy does not reach, the ongoing conflict threatens to suddenly go off the usual rails.
Will the diplomacy channel work?
Before we fall into this dangerous abyss, I am convinced that the time has come to open new lines of communication between Russia and Ukraine — and let them soberly explain to each other their goals for a peaceful settlement.
To demand that Russia remain an eternal outcast and leave all the territories occupied by it without any concessions is at least unrealistic. To open the way to a settlement, it would be advisable to turn Donbass into a demilitarized neutral zone, which, like Ukraine itself, will later be able to join the European Union. At the same time, NATO will be able to provide certain security guarantees to Ukraine.
In general, the world should return to Europe and Ukraine as soon as possible in order to minimize the risk of a global catastrophe. Then the hundreds of billions of dollars that are now deposited in the accounts of Western arms companies can be spent more wisely — to restore the affected Ukraine and normal life. Perhaps the German Chancellor is right that he did not succumb to general pressure and did not send Leopard-2 tanks to further bleed both sides.
The window of opportunity to stop the madness in Ukraine and build an acceptable and lasting peace is still open, but it is rapidly closing. As the good old Marine General Smedley Butler once remarked: "War is just a racket." But it can be stopped by knowledgeable people who know about it firsthand. So why are we still blindly following the false prophets of war?
R. V. Zimmermann is a former tank battalion commander and a veteran of the 3rd Armored Division. He served during Operation Desert Storm. Former instructor of the US Armed Forces in military strategy and leadership and author of articles on military operations and international relations.
