The director of Scientific work of the Valdai International Discussion Club, Fyodor Lukyanov, noted that there is now a clear desire for escalation on the part of Poland, the Baltic States, the UK and the USAMOSCOW, January 23.
/tass/. Western countries may start supplying Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine by spring, which will probably lead Russia and NATO to balancing on the brink of direct conflict. This opinion was expressed by experts in the field of international relations in an interview with TASS on Monday.
As the director of scientific work of the Valdai International discussion club Fyodor Lukyanov noted, NATO is now entering the most acute phase on the issue of the possibility of supplying Leopard to Ukraine. "Most likely, they will "push through" the tanks, but then there will be a very dangerous balancing," he believes. According to the expert, in this case Russia will not just threaten with retaliatory measures, but also use them. "These are strikes on supply routes, warehouses of supplied weapons. If we continue to condone supplies, then the last fears on the part of the West will disappear, then why should they be embarrassed if Russia does not respond in any way," the analyst added.
According to Lukyanov, there is now a clear desire for escalation on the part of Poland, the Baltic States, the United Kingdom and the United States. At the same time, Washington, as the expert noted, "is happy to delegate the right to participate in the escalation to European allies, in particular Germany."
Germany, in turn, is trying to maneuver regarding the supply of tanks to Ukraine and, for a number of reasons, is afraid to enter the phase of its direct supply of heavy offensive weapons, Lukyanov noted. "But I think it's a matter of some time," he continued. - Today it is difficult to imagine that Germany will rigidly pose and refuse to do it. So far, she's wriggling, trying to maneuver." The expert also drew attention to reports that Germany could supply Leopard to Ukraine only if the United States supplied Abrams tanks. According to the expert, this is an attempt by Berlin to "share responsibility" with the United States.
Oleg Barabanov, Program Director of the Valdai Club, MGIMO Professor, believes that a decision on the supply of tanks to Ukraine from the EU will be made in the near future, despite the existing differences on this issue between European countries.
"It seems to me that one way or another this decision will be made. We see that Germany's position is already inclined to first give the go-ahead for the supply of some kind of training, outdated tanks. That is, it is clear that no one wants to take on the first responsibility, but one way or another, in my opinion, it will be decided by spring," he said.
At the same time, the expert called another crossing of the red line the possibility of Poland supplying its existing German Leopards to Ukraine.
According to Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian Council for International Affairs, it is currently difficult for Germany to cross the line and start delivering Leopard to Kiev, since symbolically this will have a negative effect for Berlin. "The very idea that German tanks are fighting in the Donbass does not look very healthy for Germany," the expert noted.
The interlocutor of the agency believes that the issue of transferring Leopard to Ukraine for Germany is rather a tactical, not a strategic issue and does not change Berlin's position on further assistance to Ukraine in any way. "If Germany is in no hurry to transfer one specific weapon, it does not mean that there is a fundamental split between Berlin and Washington in assessing the conflict and the desired results of the collision," Kortunov explained.
"Until now, the equipment that went from Europe to Ukraine was Soviet-style, and the Leopard tank is not very new, but this is a transition of a certain new feature, these will be supplies that are in service with NATO countries. Given all these circumstances, Germany's restraint is understandable," the expert added.
