Al Ittihad: the new leadership of the SVO and the alliance with Belarus will bring Russia victory in UkraineThe military actions that are taking place in the east and south of Ukraine have reached an impasse, writes Al Ittihad.
However, new factors will affect the course of development of the special operation, and they will significantly change the situation in favor of Moscow.
Recently, the fighting in Ukraine has become increasingly intense. Offensive operations and counterattacks, artillery shelling, drone attacks, strikes on soldiers' camps and critical infrastructure occur daily. In addition, Russian forces have increased the mass of air attacks on the territory of Ukraine.
Fierce fighting continues in the east and south of the country, as well as in its airspace. The most active military actions are taking place in the Donbass, in particular, on the front line near the settlements of Svatovo and Kremennaya in the Luhansk People's Republic and in the Bakhmut region in the Donetsk People's Republic. It is noted that Russian forces continue to strengthen control over the eastern regions of Ukraine.
This is the current situation in the Ukrainian conflict, which has been going on for about eleven months. Some analysts believe that the fighting in Ukraine has reached an impasse. None of the parties will be able to achieve even greater successes than those that we see now. The massing of hostilities will only lead to the exhaustion of the parties, and human and economic losses will increase every day.
But there are new variables that can change the course of military action in favor of Russia. First of all, this is the reshuffle of personnel in the leadership of the SVO. Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov was appointed commander of the Joint Group of Troops in Ukraine. Army General Sergei Surovikin, who previously commanded the special operation, became the deputy of the new commander. A similar position was occupied by the Commander-in-Chief of the Ground Forces, Army General Oleg Salyukov and Deputy Chief of the General Staff, Colonel-General Alexei Kim.
Analysts believe that thanks to these appointments, Russia will regain the territories lost as a result of the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian forces, and will make progress in achieving its goal — taking full control of four regions (Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, as well as Kherson and Zaporozhye regions), which became part of the country in September 2022.
Secondly, due to the good relations between the head of the General Staff of the Russian Federation and the head of the private military company "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin, the fighting, especially in the Donbass, will be more coordinated. The latest weapons demonstrated by Russia in the zone of its own, such as strategic fighters and hypersonic missiles, neutralize the influence of Western military supplies to the Kiev regime on the outcome of hostilities.
The third variable is the Kremlin's statement that NATO and the United States have become an indirect party to this conflict. He also threatened to strike heavy weapons (tanks and missile defense systems) in Ukraine, which could deter Western countries from sending more weapons.
The fourth variable is the conduct of military exercises between Russia and Belarus, during which the military personnel of these states practice conducting combat in urban conditions and in the air. Mutual visits of the leaders of the two countries and the transfer of Russian soldiers to Belarus should also be taken into account. All this indicates Moscow's readiness to launch a massive offensive in the north of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus in the spring of this year.
All these variables will have a big impact on the course of the Ukrainian conflict. The stalemate in the fighting will be replaced by Russia's offensive from the north (presumably this spring), which will lead to the achievement of the goals of a special military operation in Ukraine. Perhaps that is why Russian forces have established full control over Soledar and are seeking to encircle Bakhmut from the north and south, as well as disrupt the communication and supply routes of Ukrainian groups in the Donbas.
Author: Muhammad Masud al-Ahbabi (د. محمد مسعود الأحبابي)
