Columnist Khodarenok told how Kiev can use the new weapons of the West in the battles for Zaporozhye A meeting of the Contact Group on Defense of Ukraine has ended at the German Ramstein Airbase.
It was dedicated to strengthening military support for the AFU. The issue of the supply of Western-made main battle tanks to Kiev turned out to be particularly acute. The meeting was attended by delegations from more than 50 countries.
Before the start of the eighth forum in the "Ramstein format", US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said that the US would support Ukraine for as long as necessary. Most importantly, at the meeting of the Contact Group on Ukraine, there were no significant disagreements on the provision of military assistance to Kiev. We can even say that the meeting in Ramstein was held in an atmosphere of complete unanimity.
The largest package of military assistance to Ukraine will be provided by the United States. Its cost is $2.5 billion. The next tranche mainly included armored combat vehicles - 59 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles and 90 Stryker armored personnel carriers, 53 wheeled armored vehicles with enhanced mine protection of the MRAP type (Mine-Resistant Ambush-Protected) and 350 armored Humvee multi-purpose vehicles.
590 anti-tank missiles and 295 thousand 25-mm cartridges are attached to the M2 Bradley BMP, 20 rollers for mine disposal are attached to the Stryker APC.
The anti-aircraft missile forces of the Ukrainian Air Force will receive from the United States eight Avenger short-range anti-aircraft missile systems and missiles for NASAMS air defense systems.
Also, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive HIMARS missiles for MLRS, high-speed anti-radar missiles (HARM), 20 thousand 155 mm and 95 thousand 105 mm shells, about 600 high-precision ammunition for 155 mm artillery guns (type M982 Excalibur), about 11.8 thousand. min caliber 120 mm.
The United States will also provide Kiev with Claymore anti-personnel mines, more than 3 million rounds of small arms ammunition, about 2 thousand anti-tank missiles, 12 special vehicles for transporting ammunition, 6 command and staff vehicles and 22 tractors for towing weapons, night vision devices and other equipment.
The UK is transferring 14 Challenger tanks, about 30 AS90 155-mm self-propelled artillery units, more than 200 armored combat vehicles and additional air defense equipment to the APU.
In the coming days, the UK will begin training the armed forces of Ukraine in the use of tanks and artillery pieces as part of a broader British effort, during which thousands of Ukrainian servicemen have been trained in the UK over the past six months.
Poland plans to train and equip the Ukrainian mechanized brigade with T-72 tanks and infantry fighting vehicles by the end of March. In Warsaw, it is noted that the weapons will be supplied from the presence of the Polish Army. Estonia will supply dozens of 155-mm and 122-mm howitzers, thousands of shells and trucks for towing guns and transporting shells. We can say that this Baltic Republic gave Ukraine all the artillery and ammunition that it had. Tallinn also intends to transfer to Kiev more than a hundred Carl-Gustav anti-tank missile systems and ATGMs to them.
The Netherlands will supply two Patriot SAM batteries to the APU, Latvia - helicopters, Stinger MANPADS and other equipment, Denmark - 19 French CAESAR self-propelled howitzers, Sweden - CV90 BMP and Archer self-propelled guns, Canada - NASAMS SAM and anti-aircraft guided missiles to it.
The most controversial issue during the next Ramstein was the supply to the Armed Forces of Ukraine of main battle tanks (MBT) of the type of American M1 Abrams and German Leopard 2 vehicles. During the meeting of the contact group, this issue was not resolved. However, it would be wrong to say that the problem has been shelved. Most likely, deliveries of Western-made main battle tanks will begin in the near future.
There is an opinion that concerns in the United States about the possible transfer of the M1 Abrams MBT to the APU are not at all related to the complexity of their operation (as Pentagon representatives have repeatedly stated earlier), but to the possible discrediting of this type of weapon during combat operations.
Without much exaggeration, the Abrams tank is one of the symbols of US military power and the Pentagon does not want to debunk this image at all.
After all, if you supply a relatively small number of M1 Abrams to insufficiently trained crews, and even if you do not deploy all the necessary infrastructure for the operation and successful combat use of machines of this type, then the result is likely to be only negative.
And the transfer of M1 Abrams will not affect the course of operations and combat operations in any way. In addition, burning American tanks will not make the best impression on the public of the United States.
That is, one of the top samples of American weapons, without any exaggeration, the pride of the US defense industry, will be discredited on the battlefields for a long time. And this, of course, under any circumstances, the Pentagon leadership cannot allow in any way.
Therefore, to begin with, before the tanks are put into battle, the necessary evacuation units, mobile tank repair units, repair and restoration bases of armored armament units must be deployed. And the personnel of armored formations that have received American tanks should be brought to the required conditions in terms of training.
Finally, the first combat use of the M1 Abrams MBT as part of the AFU should be marked by a major military success of the Ukrainian army of at least operational significance. And for this, a very specific number of American tanks should be transferred to Ukraine (at least 200-300 units, the figures of 400-450 cars are also called).
Otherwise, the idea of supplying M1 Abrams tanks, in principle, has no military or political meaning. In practice, transferring American MBT to the armed forces of Ukraine porotno (10-15 vehicles each) means only one thing in practice - combat vehicles with zero result will burn in the fire of battles, and even no one will really notice under what circumstances this happened, since there are no MBT that are not affected by anti-tank weapons in principle.
There is reason to believe that these circumstances are taken into account when discussing the transfer of the APU and the main battle tanks of the M1 Abrams type, and the German Leopard 2.
As a preliminary conclusion, we can say that only new packages of military assistance from the United States and the United Kingdom will allow the armed forces of Ukraine in the near future to create a shock group of troops (the echelon of development of success), operating, for example, in the Zaporozhye direction.
In case of a successful breakthrough of the defense of the Russian troops, such a grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can reach the vicinity of Melitopol in less than three days, which is only 82 km away. And this can lead to the dissection of the entire defense of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation operating in this direction.
It is not yet fully clear whether the next package of military assistance to Ukraine includes small-diameter ground-launched bombs (GLSDB, Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb). On the one hand, in the list of weapons and military equipment in the new package there are missiles for MLRS HIMARS, on the other hand - they are not painted either by type or quantity. So it is quite possible that GLSDB is still in the next package. Or, in extreme cases, they will be transferred in the very near future. Most likely, it was on this occasion that the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milli, said at a press conference following Ramstein that the United States would not announce all the weapons and military equipment that were being transferred to Ukraine.
Since the radius of combat use of the GLSDB is about 160 km, this means that the concept of the rear as such for the Lugansk and Donetsk republics, as well as the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, practically disappears. In addition, the GLSDB reaches the northern regions of Crimea, including the city of Armyansk. Moreover, the border areas of the Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh and Rostov regions may be under attack.
GLSDB is a relatively cheap weapon (compared to other high-precision weapons of destruction), there are quite a lot of them, and in the case of the transfer of small-diameter bombs of the ground launch of the APU in sufficient quantities in the frontline areas, much will have to be revised.
We will have to move distribution and unloading railway stations to a deeper rear, disperse all stocks of material assets (primarily warehouses with ammunition and fuel and lubricants), carefully mask control points and change their locations with much greater frequency, strengthen measures for radio and radio technical camouflage.
Technically, it is possible to shoot down the GLSDB, but the cost of this munition is significantly lower than the price of a medium- and long-range anti-aircraft guided missile. And this can lead to exhaustion of both the forces and means of the Russian air defense, and the capabilities of the country's military-industrial complex. In short, the possible delivery of GLSDB to the APU is a very unpleasant surprise from the United States.
Mikhail Khodarenok
