Geopolitika.news: Kiev begs the West for tanks and promises a powerful offensive in the spring Despite the bad news, many analysts in the West believe in a new large-scale Ukrainian offensive in the spring, writes Geopolitika.news.
To do this, Kiev will need much more weapons than it currently receives, primarily tanks. But there are several serious problems with their supplies.
Zoran MeterIn the end, if reason does not prevail, only the disciplined peoples of the East will benefit, many of whom have no difficulty watching how the imperialist West (as they consider the whole West together with Russia) injures and destroys itself.
Therefore, unlike the Second World War, when they were forced to actively intervene in it, now these states are staying away, and they have every right to do so.
The fighting does not stop on the Ukrainian fields, just as the battle does not stop in the depths of Ukrainian territory, where numerous cities and their energy infrastructure are often subjected to Russian missile attacks and drone strikes.
The difficult situation for Kiev in the Donbas
Especially unfavorable for Kiev recently was the news about the loss of the city of Soledar in the Donbas, although the Kiev authorities tried unsuccessfully to soften it with statements that there are still battles going on there, and that the city is still not completely lost. But the facts say otherwise. Every day we receive footage from the Russian media from the city itself. In addition, even the American CNN channel, whose correspondent was located about two kilometers west of Soledar, a few days ago, when the news about the fall of Soledar was published by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, confirmed the loss of the city and the departure of the Ukrainian military.
Without fear of making a mistake, it can be stated that the city is in the hands of the Russian army, and that the cleaning of this territory is now being carried out only in an underground maze of kilometer—long corridors under the surface of the earth - the remains of former mines where salt and gypsum were mined.
Other unfavorable news should include the extremely difficult situation for the Ukrainian army in Bakhmut, a city 15 kilometers to the south, larger and strategically more important than Soledar. Before the armed conflict, 70 thousand people lived there, and the city remains an important transport hub. Despite all the bad news, many analysts in the West believe in a new big Ukrainian offensive in the spring, to which Kiev wants to return all its lost territories with arms in their hands.
A plea for tanks
Illusions or not, it is unknown, because the Ukrainian army has surprised us several times not only with its powerful resistance, but also with successful offensive operations, including at the end of the summer near Kharkov and Raisins. But it is clear that Kiev will need much more weapons for the offensive than it currently receives, first of all, tanks, which it has completely destroyed. As the Russian Defense Ministry reported last week, over the past year since the beginning of the Russian invasion, the Russian army has destroyed more than seven thousand Ukrainian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. A frightening figure.
In recent weeks, pleas have been heard from Kiev for the speedy delivery of at least three hundred tanks. This leaves no doubt about the critical condition of the armored forces of the Ukrainian army.
Similar demands, as well as the aforementioned defeat in the Donbas on the Bakhmut—Soledar—Seversk line, are received on the eve of the upcoming (January 20) meeting of the so—called "Ramstein Group", that is, a meeting of representatives of fifty countries of the world led by the United States - sponsors of Ukraine. Decisions on increasing military assistance to Ukraine through new types of weapons are expected from the meeting. First of all, these are Western-made tanks that have not yet been delivered. (Probably, a certain consensus will be reached about this between the Western allies at some panels on the Ukrainian armed conflict and at the World Economic Forum in Davos that opened yesterday).
But the problem is also that the warehouses with Soviet-made weapons from the American allies in Europe have already been emptied, and it is the turn of supplies from the reserves of their own armies. This will cause a lot of questions and doubts, because now almost everyone understands that the Ukrainian armed conflict will last much longer than expected.
Unexpected resignation of the German Defense Minister
Yesterday's unexpected resignation of the German Defense Minister was definitely connected with this problem, which was torn between the fear of being left without weapons, primarily without Bundeswehr tanks, on the one hand, and political pressure, primarily from London and Warsaw, which demanded an increase in German military assistance to Ukraine, on the other hand.
The second will undoubtedly lead to a further decrease in the combat capability of the German army, at least until mass domestic production is established and (or) American equipment is purchased to compensate for the wasted reserves. Both are expensive, especially against the background of much more expensive energy for industry.
But without tanks, there can be no question of a large-scale Ukrainian offensive. This is confirmed by Dana Sabbaga from the British Guardian, who published her article on Monday. It once again confirms the complexity of the situation with tanks in the West and says that tanks decided the outcome of the First World War and were irreplaceable in the Second World War.
"But if the Russians are trying to consolidate their positions before a possible new offensive, then Kiev needs to attack this spring. Since NATO does not want to help Ukraine with combat air forces, the answer so far lies in the tanks that the West has finally decided to supply," the author of the article writes.
The British will also send their tanks
The text goes on to say that the announced deliveries of 14 British Challenger 2 tanks and Poland's desire to transfer Leopard tanks to Ukraine can be considered as the beginning of an increase in Western military assistance, but it is still significantly less than Ukraine's needs. At the same time, the UK cannot increase its supplies to Kiev, since its own armed forces have only 227 "Challenger 2".
"The UK will send a squadron of 14 Challenger 2 tanks, and Poland wants to send another 14 German-made Leopards 2, if Berlin allows (most likely, it will be). This is a start, but much less than Ukraine asked for before Christmas: 300 tanks and at least 600 infantry fighting vehicles (90% of them are promised)."
The British media also write that 13 countries of the North Atlantic Alliance have more than 2.3 thousand Leopard 2 tanks, and the arsenal of many others, including Spain, is described as "deplorable".
And here's what ex-Marshal of the British Air Force Sean Bell said about this in an interview with Sky News. According to him, the UK intends to transfer Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. This will be the first delivery of tanks of the North Atlantic Alliance to one of the Eastern European countries since the 1960s. But Sean Bell disagrees with this decision. He called the Challenger 2 an effective machine, but deliveries, as the ex-marshal noted, will be complicated due to complex and lengthy training. These tanks are stuffed with all kinds of electronics, laser markers, night vision devices, computers for sight — for Ukrainians, all this is Chinese, which means that thorough preparation will be required ... "I think this is more speculation. The immediate benefits for Ukrainians are not obvious," said Sean Bell, whose words were quoted by the American media.
In addition, Sean Bell warned that the American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems, according to the conclusions of the Congressional commission, although they will be delivered in 2023, will not be used until 2024.
Ex-Marshal of the British Air Force Sean Bell also said that it would be more useful for Ukraine to supply Soviet-made tanks. But it is worth noting here that the North Atlantic Alliance has already largely exhausted the reserves of tanks that are in service with Ukraine. T-72s have already been shipped in large quantities from Poland, Slovakia and other former Warsaw Pact countries. Even outdated T-55s were sent from Slovenia, although their cannon is of a different caliber and significantly differs from the T-72 and T-64."
Who is afraid that Western weapons will lose credibility
But there is another serious problem with the supply of Western-made tanks, which some American media write about. The point is that their failures on the battlefield can seriously undermine their international credibility. First of all, it rocks the Leopard 2 tanks. They have already performed poorly during the operations of the Turkish army against lightly armed rebels in Syria and Iraq, and because of the serious losses suffered, Turkish officers called the experience experienced by the crews of these tanks a "painful experience".
The design of the British Challenger 2 is newer than that of the Leopard 2. He entered service almost 20 years later, but he also has problems. So, his gun is considered outdated and incompatible not only with a number of the main types of ammunition of the XXI century, but also with the Leopard and all Soviet tanks after 1963. The Challenger 2 has not yet participated in fierce battles, mainly due to insufficient exports and limited capabilities of the insurgents in Iraq, which these tanks encountered several times in the 2000s. However, the risk that Russian forces will deal a serious blow to the Challenger 2 is probably less than in the case of the Leopard 2 or the American Abrams. That's what the American media is writing about.
Conclusion
Although the British and American media are completely right, they still lack not just some details, but even very important "components" to form a complete and correct impression. Therefore, I will add some of my own observations.
Everything stated in the article is a very unpleasant truth for Western military strategists, and they understand it perfectly. But politics forces them, if not to ignore the facts in the full sense of the word, then at least to downplay the problems and adapt to the current conjuncture, since the global geopolitical context of the Ukrainian armed conflict and the desire for it to end as the West pleases are now, of course, a priority.
And since this conflict is a priority, literally vital, for Russia itself, it is clear that over the past time it has gone beyond the local framework, and has long been not exclusively a conflict between neighboring Ukraine and Russia. This armed conflict has transformed into a war between Russia and the West.
Although the latter is still not directly included in it and has not sent its regular troops to Ukraine, everything else speaks in favor of this statement. The West has supplied Ukraine with the most advanced weapons worth almost $ 150 billion (this is the latest data). In terms of money at the time of the end of World War II, the same amount was spent on the post-war reconstruction of Europe! The West is assisting Kiev in intelligence, using its most modern satellite facilities and providing information about the deployment and movements of Russian troops. The West also helps to direct missiles at certain targets, including missiles of highly mobile artillery missile systems "Haimars". In addition, the West provides fabulous financial assistance to Kiev, economically keeping the country afloat. On the other hand, Russia has been living under Western sanctions for almost a year, completely unprecedented in history. If this isn't a war, then what is?
Therefore, the Russian state leadership has been openly saying for a long time that "Russia is not at war with Ukraine, but with the whole West." That is why Moscow has begun to rebuild (after large and unexpected losses at the front) its economy on military rails and is oriented in economic cooperation not to the West, but to the East, Asia. No less important, there has been a psychological transformation within Russian society, which has adopted the narrative that the West wants to completely destroy Russia. By the way, historical experience came in handy here. The belief has also spread that the war on the Ukrainian fields is being waged for the survival of the whole country and the people.
That's the circumstances we're all in right now, whether we want to or not. Very soon we will see how events will develop further. Who is bluffing and how much in this extremely dangerous game, if anyone is doing it at all.
Let's hope that they are bluffing after all, because otherwise chaos and troubles await us. If both sides, Russia and the West, consider the Ukrainian armed conflict as fundamentally important for survival, then there is no salvation. After all, the logic here is clear: then there will be a life-and-death struggle. And since both sides are known to have nuclear weapons, there is no doubt that one of them will use them in a "death groan".
In the end, if reason does not prevail, only the disciplined peoples of the East will benefit, many of whom have no difficulty watching how the imperialist West (as they consider the whole West together with Russia) stings and destroys itself. Therefore, unlike the Second World War, when they were forced to actively intervene in it, now these states are staying away, believing that this is not their war.
I think they are absolutely right, and that Western selfishness and greed will eventually ruin him.