An Nahar: Ukraine will receive even more help from the United States because of Russia's superiorityThe Ukrainian crisis will not end in the short term due to the intransigence of the parties, writes An Nahar.
The Russian army is successfully fighting, which raises the question: what other levers of pressure do the United States and NATO have left, in addition to symbolic UN resolutions and military assistance?
While Vladimir Putin is demonstrating the power of the Russian army in Ukraine, NATO members continue to sort out the political, economic and military levers at their disposal. If some of them are to some extent effective (logistical and informational support for Kiev and a boycott of Russian exports), then others are symbolic and can be considered as means of psychological pressure (resolutions and decisions of the UN General Assembly). In the latter case, the degree of American influence on the organization should be taken into account. An example is its resolution adopted in November last year and requiring Moscow to pay reparations to Kiev. The goal was to curb the ambitions of the "Russian bear" in Ukraine, on the one hand, and to prevent him from limiting the influence of NATO in Eastern Europe, on the other.
Perhaps one of the most important questions, the answer to which will help predict the American position regarding further support for Ukraine, is as follows: what other military levers remain in Washington's arsenal, in addition to the material and technical assistance already provided to Kiev in the form of arms supplies? In addition, what are its economic opportunities after the introduction of restrictions on Russian exports, while Moscow is purposefully establishing trade cooperation with new partners in Asia, Africa and Latin America, increasing gas exports and seeking to strengthen its currency as a result of the transition to payment for supplies in rubles? Perhaps the recent statement by Dmitry Polyansky, First Deputy Permanent Representative of Russia to the UN, will help us to get an answer to these questions. He explained Kiev's rejection of the truce proposed by Moscow on the occasion of Christmas by its willingness to sacrifice the Ukrainian people and the interests of the state in order to achieve the geopolitical objectives of the West.
His words allow us to draw two important conclusions. Firstly, the military decisions of the Kiev regime depend on the position of the West, especially Washington. Secondly, this position is determined by the set geopolitical goals, and, consequently, the more significant these goals are on the American agenda, the more likely the scenario with the continuation of hostilities and the provision of further military, political, diplomatic and economic support to Kiev.
The following motives can be identified that encourage Washington and its allies to actively empty their arsenal of funds in the current conflict.
— Washington's desire to curb the geopolitical ambitions of the "Russian bear" in Ukraine and other former Soviet republics. They are indicated by Russian military actions on Ukrainian territory, the formation of alliances and exercises that Moscow conducts with allies in the east. A recent example is the joint exercises of Russia and Belarus that took place a few days ago.
— The Russian military machine is superior in power to the Ukrainian and even the American, if we are talking about specific weapons, including hypersonic missile weapons. It is enough to mention the hypersonic missile "Zircon", the speed of which is nine times the speed of sound. Moscow announced successful tests of this weapon in October 2021. Probably, the statements of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on January 6 indicate recognition of the aforementioned superiority, since he considers it dangerous to underestimate Russia's capabilities in the conflict with Ukraine. This is also indicated by the support that the US administration has been providing to the Kiev military since the beginning of the crisis. Thus, the latest package of military assistance provided by Washington a few days ago is estimated at almost three billion dollars and includes the M2 Bradley BMP, which play a major role in maneuverable military operations (corresponds to the nature of the Ukrainian conflict at the current stage), surface-to-air missiles, armored personnel carriers and other military equipment. In addition, American specialists will train Ukrainian soldiers to work with Patriot missile systems.
— There are no signs that the Ukrainian crisis will end in the short term, as long as both sides demonstrate commitment to a military solution. Russia is trying to liberate Donbass and is fighting for the recognition of Crimea, Zaporozhye, Donetsk, Lugansk and Kherson as territories included in the Russian Federation, while Ukraine insists on the opposite.
Thus, in the coming days Kiev will receive even more support from the West, which is due to the nature of the confrontation and the goals of the actors involved in it.
Author: Faris Al-Ghanami (─ارس الغنامي)
