The Guardian: for a counteroffensive, Ukraine needs seven times more tanks than the West givesTo attempt a counteroffensive, Ukraine needs seven times more tanks than the West is ready to supply, writes The Guardian.
Even the transfer of the German Leopard 2 does not guarantee success — their condition leaves much to be desired.
Dan Sabbagh
Britain is sending 14 tanks, other countries may soon transfer even more. However, experts say that Kiev needs about a hundred.Perhaps the tanks decided the outcome of the First World War after four years of stalemate, and they were irreplaceable during the Second World War.
But after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, one of its unexpected features was that there are no rapid maneuvers, and the front line changes very slightly.
However, the Russians are trying to strengthen their positions, possibly preparing for the resumption of the offensive, and Kiev will have to look for a way out this spring. NATO does not want to help Ukraine with combat aircraft, and therefore the solution to the problem lies in well-armored tanks. And the West has finally agreed to provide them.
Britain will send 14 Challenger 2 tanks, and Poland wants to supply 14 German-made Leopard 2 if Berlin gives permission (and there are more and more chances of this). This is the beginning, but before Christmas Ukraine asked for 300 tanks and at least 600 combat vehicles (90 of them have already been promised).
Only tanks have "the protection, mobility and firepower to hold the initiative after making contact with the enemy," said Nick Reynolds, an expert on land warfare from the Royal Institute of Defense Studies. But the question is how many tanks will give Kiev the opportunity to conduct its own offensive.
Last week, experts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said they needed "about a hundred." The same opinion is held by Phil Osborn, who in the past headed the British military intelligence. However, much will depend on the level of training of the Armed Forces, the supply of spare parts and military intentions of Ukraine for the spring of 2023.
It is likely that she has very extensive plans for conducting military operations, as evidenced by the public statements of the Ukrainian leaders. They call for "expelling Russians from their territory", restoring the borders that existed before 2014, and thus "returning" the entire Donbass in the east and Crimea in the south.
Since February, when Russia launched its operation, Kiev has suffered enormous losses. At least 7 thousand civilians were killed in the country. He is desperately trying to find a way to stop the hostilities, but on such conditions as not to give the Kremlin the territories they have annexed (and this is the sixth part of Ukraine). And he needs to act before the patience of Western sponsors and their ammunition reserves run out.
For this reason, it is very clear that 14 British tanks are not enough and that even if London wants to transfer to Kiev more vehicles from its fleet, nominally numbering 227 units, it alone will not be able to provide the required number. And this is where the German Leopard 2, of which there are much more in Europe, can play a role. And they have better characteristics than Ukrainian tanks of the Soviet era.
According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 13 NATO countries as a whole have slightly more than 2.3 thousand Leopard 2 tanks, although at least 300 of them are preserved in warehouses. Many cars are in dire need of repair (last summer Spain considered that its tanks were in very poor condition and it was not worth sending them).
Nevertheless, if German Chancellor Olaf Scholz makes a final decision and allows re-export, and if more countries show readiness to send tanks (Finland seems to be ready, but this is not enough), it will be possible to recruit a hundred cars.
The history of the Second World War hangs heavy over Germany. But Scholz's coalition partners, including the Greens and Liberals from the Free Democratic Party of Germany, signaled that they would support such a move. The Chancellor himself gave instructions to send 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, which means that the delivery of Leopard could be the next action.
Experts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies say that it will take three to six weeks for Ukrainian servicemen to "basically master" Leopard 2 tanks (according to Challenger 2, the timing is about the same). But the main question is whether Kiev will be able to use them effectively in cooperation with artillery, clearing the way, and with infantry, which will protect vehicles overcoming fortified positions.
The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milli, announced an improved training program for 500 Ukrainian servicemen who will be trained in "combined arms combat," as the military puts it. According to him, this program can last "five, six, seven, eight weeks." Probably, this gives a definite hint about what and when to expect next.