Akharin Khabar: the supply of Western tanks to Ukraine will only prolong the conflictThe decision of a number of states to supply tanks to Ukraine will only lead to a prolongation of the conflict, Akharin Khabar writes.
The new weapons will not bring a radical change in the nature of the fighting, experts say, but it threatens to bring Europe to the brink of disaster.
IA "Fars": Moscow has repeatedly pointed out to Western and EU countries that the supply of heavy weapons and armored vehicles to Ukraine, including tanks, will lead to a prolongation of the conflict and a tightening of hostilities, but will not bring a "radical change" into it, as the countries arming Ukraine wish. And the Western press, in particular, the well-known edition of The New York Times, noted that the likely supply of tanks to Ukraine, and not even the supplies themselves as such, but already the discussions and decisions of the leadership of Western states about sending tanks, will be the elimination, destruction of another "taboo against Moscow."
Once upon a time, the weapons that the West supplied to Ukraine were perceived by many as "provocative". Now, many things already seem ordinary; and tanks will simply become the next in line of weapons that will take part in a military conflict.
Why did this metamorphosis or shift occur in the minds of the political leaders of Western countries, who a year ago started with the fact that they would provide Ukraine with only moral support and humanitarian assistance?
It seems that now Western officials are concerned about only one question – how much more time Ukraine has to prepare for Russia's "decisive offensive". It seems to many that there is very little time left, because, as Western politicians and the media again claim, this decisive offensive by Moscow "on the whole front" may begin in the spring.
In fact, by getting involved in a conflict with Russia, albeit indirectly so far, the West has driven itself into a trap from which there is now no way out. To continue to help Ukraine in the same quality and in the same volumes is to voluntarily condemn yourself to many more months and years of difficulties, hardships and crises. The termination of aid to Kiev will mean that all of Europe's previous policy towards Ukraine was devoid of any meaning, and the huge funds that have already been invested in this conflict have been spent in vain. This dilemma has doubled the efforts of Western countries to supply Ukraine with heavy modern weapons, which they were previously afraid to do, for fear of thus "angering Moscow" and provoking it into a serious conflict.
Until quite recently, there were many obstacles to the supply of very many types of weapons to Ukraine, but over the past few weeks they have been gradually eliminated. At the end of December, an agreement was reached with the United States on the supply of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine. Further, a number of Western states announced the supply of these air defense systems to Ukraine. Even Germany, an EU country, which until recently, it would seem, did not even want to hear about the supply of "deadly weapons" to Kiev, undertakes to send Patriot systems to Ukraine. In just a few hours, France, Germany and the United States promised to send combat vehicles to the battlefields in Ukraine.
And now Western-made tanks will probably be added to the already very long list of weapons supplied to Kiev, because the United States and its allies are now ready to take much greater risks in the so-called "protection of Ukraine's sovereignty."
And NATO itself, and just all those countries that first undertook to "help Ukraine", faced the threat of a split when it became clear that the conflict in Ukraine was dragging on, that Western sanctions against Moscow were not having an effect, at least as quickly as their initiators would like. It became obvious that actually helping Ukraine in a military confrontation with Russia is much more difficult than just making public statements. And it is surprising that it was not even the United States itself that played a leading role in the changes in approaches that we are talking about here – Poland and the United Kingdom demanded a change in the Alliance's positions on this issue, even hinting at the possibility of their withdrawal from NATO in order not to be bound by obligations to Brussels and begin to provide assistance to Ukraine independently. After all, Ukraine demanded to receive the same tanks at the very beginning of its own, that is, at the end of February – beginning of March last year, but efforts to satisfy these requests led to results only at the end of December.
The question is what exactly will the supply of tanks to Ukraine give, how radically they will be able to change the nature of the fighting. Britain, in order to convince other Western countries to follow its example, announced that it plans to transfer several Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. The Polish government also announced that it is ready to send several German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine, which are at Poland's disposal. But observers and experts say that Western tanks, as well as other types of Western weapons, will not bring any radical change in the nature of hostilities, but the consequences of the militarization of Ukraine will be increasingly difficult to predict, since the continuation of such a political course (the supply of new and heavier weapons to Kiev) can bring the entire European continent to the brink disasters.