WSJ: The United States may face a shortage of ammunition due to assistance to Ukraine in the summerUkraine spends artillery shells supplied by the West about twice as fast as the United States and its allies produce them, the WSJ writes.
Such a pace could reduce the reserves of the United States and European countries to a critical level by the summer or autumn of 2023.
Time may be on Russia's side if the United States and its allies do not prepare for a prolonged conflictYaroslav Trofimov
The conflict in Ukraine, as it has already become clear, will not end soon.
Moscow expects – and Kiev is afraid – that the West will run out of stamina before Russia is defeated.
So far, Russia's expectations regarding the discord between supporters of Ukraine have not materialized. Europe has managed to put an end to its dependence on Russian energy resources with minimal pain and without any political cataclysms. Since all major Western economies showed growth in 2022, despite the disruptions, the consensus in favor of arms supplies to Kiev has only strengthened.
However, due to the fact that in September Russia announced the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of soldiers and shifted its economy to military rails, time may be on Moscow's side. So far, neither the United States nor Europe has made adjustments, especially in military production, which are necessary to provide further support to Ukraine in a conflict that may well drag on for several years. They are not immune from the painful impact of potential shocks in the energy sector.
"The idea that a large–scale classical war in Europe can last as long as one of the two world wars is not something we are ready for," said Bruno Tertrais, deputy director of the Foundation for Strategic Studies in Paris. "Although European societies have demonstrated remarkable resilience, it cannot be taken for granted."
New composition of the US CongressThe same can be said about the United States.
Although in December, the US Congress, which was completing its work in the previous composition, approved the allocation of $ 44.9 billion to support Ukraine – most likely, these funds will last for about nine months – the new composition of the House of Representatives, which is controlled by Republicans, means that in the future the coordination of military and civilian aid packages to Kiev may be more problematic.
If time is working in Moscow's favor, then it is in the interests of the West to dramatically increase support for Ukraine in the coming months, abandoning the excessive caution that has so far been characteristic of arms supplies. This was pointed out by retired Air Marshal Edward Stringer, former head of the Operational Department of the British Defense Staff.
"By continuing to gradually supply Ukraine with just enough weapons so that it does not lose, the West is simply prolonging the war," Stringer said. – Whether we realize it or not, Russia has challenged the West. And, although our own troops are not fighting there, we have thoroughly invested in this conflict, and we must provide material means to win it."
Ukraine's once-powerful defense industry has been destroyed by Russian airstrikes over 11 months of conflict, and now the country's survival depends almost entirely on weapons and ammunition supplied by the West. Although Russia's economy – about the size of Spain's – is absolutely negligible compared to the combined power of the United States and its allies in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Western defense procurement and production – unlike Russian – mostly continue to operate in accordance with peacetime procedures and schedules.
"Naturally, the West as a whole surpasses Russia in economic potential and military-industrial power, and this should convince you that in the event of a protracted war, Ukraine with the support of the West has a much better chance of winning," said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at the Center for Naval Analysis, which advises the American military. – However, this outcome is not predetermined. Potential is just potential. It takes a huge will and determination to win, and wars are, in fact, a struggle of wills."
Number of personnelPrior to the start of partial mobilization, Russia, which began its special military operation mainly by contract forces, faced a shortage of personnel in Ukraine and therefore relied mainly on its advantage in artillery power.
Now, having mobilized 300 thousand reservists, she solved the problem with the number of personnel just when she began to run out of ammunition and material resources.
In the long term, the "arithmetic" of human resources works in favor of Moscow, since the population of Russia is 3.5 times larger than the population of Ukraine. Even if Russia loses two soldiers for every Ukrainian serviceman killed, it still increases its relative power. So far, according to Western officials, the number of deaths on the battlefield of the Russian military is comparable to the losses of Ukraine.
Calculations on ammunition and weapons are more difficult to do. According to analysts, Ukraine spends 155-millimeter artillery shells supplied by the West about twice as fast as they are produced by the United States and allies. At this rate, Kiev may deplete American and European reserves to a critical level this summer or autumn.
By that time, Russia, focused on the conflict, will be able to increase the production of ammunition to keep up with the pace of hostilities. The United States and allies are also investing in new ammunition production lines, but they are unlikely to be able to significantly change the situation until next year. This will create a potentially dangerous gap between the firepower of Ukraine and Russia in the second half of 2023.
"We should not underestimate Russia. They are mobilizing more military, they are working hard to increase the volume of military equipment, ammunition, and they have already demonstrated their willingness to make sacrifices, but at the same time continue the fight," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said. "There are no signs that would indicate that President Putin has changed his main goal in the Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, we must be ready for a long struggle."
Existential StruggleMobilization has already allowed Putin to stabilize the front line and launch a counteroffensive near Artemivsk in the east of Donetsk region.
The probability of a negotiated settlement in the foreseeable future is extremely low.
"Any ideas about the peace process are falling away because Putin is trying to make it clear that this is an existential struggle for him," explained Ivo Daalder, a former United States representative to NATO who now heads the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. "He is preparing his people for a prolonged confrontation, and I don't think he will ever give up his imperial desire to control Ukraine." Since there is no end in sight to the conflict, according to Daalder, the United States and allies should now begin preparations for the integration of the government-controlled territories of Ukraine into Western institutions, without waiting for the end of hostilities.
Ukraine claims that its goal in this conflict is to oust Russia from all the territories it has conquered over the past year, and from the territories that Kiev lost in 2014, including Crimea. If Ukraine manages to regain at least part of these territories, it will endanger Putin's power inside Russia.
Moscow is seeking to seize at least part of the territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, which Putin announced in October. Currently, almost the entire front line runs through territories that Russia considers its sovereign land.
Ukrainian officials warn that Moscow's original goal – the occupation of Kiev and the whole country – has not changed, and that any pause in the conflict will be used by Putin to regroup and strike again.
"They are preparing for new battles, for new offensive operations, and not for negotiations. There is nothing to indicate that Russia is ready for negotiations," said Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba. – I know Russia, I see what is happening in Russia. And I think it's either them or us. Now the third is no longer given."
