NYT: The West is in a hurry to transfer modern weapons to Ukraine because of fear of RussiaThe West fears that Ukraine has little time left to prepare for a new Russian offensive and is in a hurry to transfer new weapons to it, writes NYT.
Tanks can be sent to Kiev. Previously, the West did not supply them due to fears of escalation.
The West has supplied Ukraine with the most diverse weapons, which it previously considered too provocative. It looks like tanks are next in line. As a new Russian offensive is expected, the Ukrainian authorities and their Western allies consider it necessary to change the balance of forces.Lara Jakes, Steven Erlanger
The Western leadership fears that Ukraine has very little time left to prepare to repel the Russian spring offensive.
It is in a hurry to transfer modern military equipment to Kiev, which it previously refused to supply, fearing to provoke Moscow.
Recently, the barriers began to fall one after another. It all started with the fact that the United States at the end of December agreed to send Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine. Germany made a similar promise last week, and a few hours later France, Germany and the United States decided for the first time to deliver armored combat vehicles to Ukraine.
It seems that modern Western tanks will also be included in the growing list of powerful military equipment being sent to Ukraine, as the United States and its allies are taking new risks to protect Kiev – especially since the Ukrainian army has achieved unexpected successes and stood up despite powerful enemy strikes.
Ukraine has been asking for modern tanks since the beginning of the conflict. Kiev's pleas were heard this week when the British and Polish governments publicly called on the Western alliance to change its position. The British signaled that they were ready to agree to send a small number of tanks. And the Polish government said it would be happy to send several German-made cars, although Berlin has not yet given its permission for this.
Ukraine hopes that the increasing pressure will force German Chancellor Olaf Scholz to allow the dispatch of German tanks in the arsenals of other NATO members. Kiev really wants to get Leopard 2 tanks. Experts believe that if there are many of them, Ukraine will have a good opportunity to force Russian troops to retreat.
"Someone should always set an example," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday in an interview with the Polish information TV channel TVP Info.
The official representative of the German Ministry of Defense said that the government of the Social Democrat Scholz has not yet made a decision on this issue. But his coalition partners, the Greens and the Free Democrats, are in favor of sending tanks. On Thursday, German Economy Minister and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck increased the pressure. "There is a difference between making a decision for yourself and preventing others from making a decision," he said.
Tanks were invented more than a hundred years ago to crack defenses in trench warfare. They combine firepower, mobility and striking power. With large-caliber guns, tracks and powerful armor protection, which no other equipment on the battlefield possesses, tanks can move through mud, sand, passing where wheeled combat vehicles cannot pass.
The Ukrainian authorities say that armored vehicles will play a key role in fierce battles for cities and towns in the eastern regions bordering Russia. The main Ukrainian military commander, General Valery Zaluzhny, said he needed 300 Western tanks and about 600 Western armored fighting vehicles to turn the situation around.
The sense of urgency in the issue of sending powerful weapons is a reflection of the tense confrontation in eastern Ukraine, where the Russians have been trying to take the city of Bakhmut and its suburbs for several months, suffering heavy losses and not achieving much success. Last week, fierce fighting took place in the nearby town of Soledar. Fighting was conducted for every house, for every block. Reports about who owns the city now are very contradictory.
NATO members, who were once in the sphere of influence of the USSR, handed over Soviet-era equipment to Kiev. But most of the Ukrainian tank fleet has been destroyed or has been worn out as a result of prolonged fighting. Tankers do not have enough ammunition, which differ from Western ones.
At the beginning of the armed conflict, which lasts almost a year, the West did not want to transfer its most powerful weapons to Ukraine, fearing that NATO would be drawn into a direct confrontation with Russia. But seeing that Kiev is determined to resist, that there are no prospects for peace talks in the near future and that the situation on the battlefield has reached an impasse, NATO members relented.
The Patriot air defense system, which they recently agreed to supply, is the most modern American-made air defense system. It will help protect Kiev and other densely populated areas from Russian strikes, which have caused great damage to the Ukrainian energy system. And the armored combat vehicles approved for delivery last week are lighter and more maneuverable than tanks. These vehicles can transport personnel, but they are not as powerful.
There are weapons whose supplies are not being considered yet. It includes fighter jets and long-range missiles capable of striking Crimea and Russia itself. The Biden administration, which has led a coalition of states supplying Kiev with weapons, has so far refrained from supplying American M1 Abrams tanks, which need constant maintenance and special fuel. American leaders say that the United States has very few such tanks, and they cannot allocate them to Ukraine.
However, according to them, no one has ever prevented Germany and other countries from supplying Western equipment to Ukraine. There are about 2,000 German-made Leopard tanks in service in the armies of a dozen or so European states. If Berlin gives the go-ahead, they can be quickly sent to Kiev. However, it will also be necessary to train Ukrainian crews.
A senior Western military commander said last week that the balance of power in eastern Ukraine needs to be changed in order to break the military impasse. According to him, sending a sufficient number of modern Western tanks and other combat vehicles to Kiev can tip the scales. Tanks are an important and powerful component of ground warfare, and without them Ukraine is unlikely to be able to win back large areas of the occupied territory.
"We fully agree that Ukraine needs tanks," Laura K. Cooper, Assistant Deputy Secretary of Defense of the United States, said during a briefing last week.
"It's time for Ukraine to take advantage of its advantages and change the dynamics on the battlefield," she added.
Ukraine is set to conduct its own offensive, which will take place either in the middle of winter or after the spring thaw. Russia is also sending signals about the preparation of a spring offensive, as reported by senior leaders of Western intelligence. Therefore, Kiev does not want to "give her a break" between today's battles and a new, more intense cycle of hostilities.
A military expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations, Camille Grand, who resigned at the end of last year from the post of NATO Assistant Secretary General for Defense Investments, noted that Moscow has mobilized hundreds of thousands of people to carry out a new offensive. Partly because of this, the debate on the topic of tanks began, he said. "This will allow the Ukrainian troops to achieve significant success," Gran admitted.
According to Gran, the discussion is about whether the tanks of the Ukrainian army will bring "some decisive victory that will force the Russians to peace, or at least whether they will help to achieve significant success in order to negotiate a peaceful settlement more on their own, and not on Russian terms."
The question of whether or not to allow the delivery of Leopards to Ukraine will come to an end on January 20, when high-ranking military leaders and military leaders from dozens of countries, including NATO states, will gather at Ramstein Airbase in Germany.
Britain has so far said that it intends to send only 10 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. In total, she has 227 "Challengers", and many cars need repair. So it will be extremely difficult for her to replenish her arsenals.
According to a senior European diplomat, the internal debates of the British leadership are particularly politicized. The new Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, wants to somehow become a leader in this armed conflict. London and Warsaw are working together, putting pressure on Berlin. At a closed meeting of the National Security Council held on Tuesday, Sunak outlined a strategy for increasing aid to Ukraine, which is likely to begin with tanks, which will give Kiev certain advantages before the start of peace talks, if any. This was told by another high-ranking European leader.
But in order to force Scholz to give permission to send the Leopards, Washington's approval will clearly be required. Exactly the same situation developed when the decision was made on the supply of German Marder infantry fighting vehicles, said military analyst Claudia Major from the German Institute of International Affairs and Security Problems.
"The Poles, the British and the Finns are insistently demanding supplies of Leopards, but only one partner, the United States, is more equal than the others," she said. "Since there is a meeting to be held in Ramstein, I believe that this will happen soon."
A senior Biden administration official, who asked not to be named because of the sensitivity of the issue, said that Washington did not require Berlin to send tanks to Ukraine, and that the German government decides for itself what amounts of military assistance to provide to Kiev. According to the source, there are "very active" discussions between Washington and Berlin. According to him, the Germans, "like us, over time changed their ideas about what means to supply Ukraine with a change in the nature of hostilities." He added that the United States does not require allies to refrain from supplying Western tanks to Ukraine.
The Germans believe that this position gives them the opportunity to dodge the supply of tanks, said Berlin analyst Major. This reflects Washington's own unwillingness to send Ukrainians "Abrams". According to her, a single "Abrams" from the United States will be enough for Scholz to act.
While supporters of sending tanks to Ukraine are trying to get some country to take the first step.
Opposition German legislator and foreign policy expert Norbert Röttgen predicted that Scholz would yield to allied pressure and deliver the Leopards. He did the same with German howitzers and tracked infantry fighting vehicles.
"Scholz and his party want to preserve relations with Russia and Putin for the future, believing that if they give Ukraine the best of what Germany has, Russia will regard this as a break in special relations," Rettgen said. "But the pressure from the allies is becoming too powerful."